1. Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

March 29th-30th Severe Weather Threat

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by DadOfJax, Mar 23, 2018.

  1. DadOfJax

    DadOfJax Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    364
    Likes Received:
    216
    Location:
    Etowah County
    Models having a little bit of a hard time resolving the SLP at this time, but the setup looks pretty decent with instability and shear. Definitely worth monitoring.
     
  2. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    Here’s what the SPC says this morning.
     
  3. vtrap90

    vtrap90 Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    70
    Likes Received:
    44
    Location:
    Midtown, Atlanta, GA.
    Thankfully, it appears that this threat will not contain any excessive severe weather.

    From the 3/25 7am FFC AFD

    and the 3/25 12pm BMX AFD,


     
  4. DadOfJax

    DadOfJax Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    364
    Likes Received:
    216
    Location:
    Etowah County
    Trend the SLP northwwst, like we so often see this time of year, and instability will be no issue. Sneaky threat here...
     
  5. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    FFC says no severe weather at all.
    SPC says the same thing.
     
  6. DadOfJax

    DadOfJax Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    364
    Likes Received:
    216
    Location:
    Etowah County
    Not at all...Low predictability does not mean "no SVR weather"....it means the details are still muddy.
     
    stormcentral likes this.
  7. vtrap90

    vtrap90 Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    70
    Likes Received:
    44
    Location:
    Midtown, Atlanta, GA.
    Jax, your'e onto something. BMX beginning to change their wording for southwestern portions of Alabama. SPC also has put a 15% chance of severe for this area as well on Day 4.

    [​IMG]
     
  8. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    Oh here s the latest for real. I think I had Sunday.
    Here it is:
     
  9. accu35

    accu35 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    3,150
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Where's Tennessee? Haven't heard from him in a while. He loves Severe weather
     
  10. vtrap90

    vtrap90 Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    70
    Likes Received:
    44
    Location:
    Midtown, Atlanta, GA.
    SPC Day 3 Outlook.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    Here’s what FFC says
    SPC:
    Also a little bit about Day 4 by SPC:
     
  12. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    4 pm update from FFC
     
  13. DadOfJax

    DadOfJax Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    364
    Likes Received:
    216
    Location:
    Etowah County
    All of central AL now under a slight risk for tomm. for tornadoes and winds 60mph+
     
  14. DadOfJax

    DadOfJax Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    364
    Likes Received:
    216
    Location:
    Etowah County
    BMX Disco....

    LONG TERM...
    Thursday through Tuesday.

    A shortwave trough will move eastward from Texas on Thursday and
    shear out as it ejects into the base of a larger-scale trough. There
    is uncertainty regarding the evolution of convection early Thursday
    morning across Mississippi, and this will have implications
    downstream across our forecast area. The threat for severe storms
    will be greatly diminished if a line of showers/storms outruns
    the upper-level support as indicated by some convective-allowing
    models.

    For now, we will plan for the slower evolution favored by the
    NAM/GFS/ECMWF. If this occurs, a low-level jet should strengthen to
    40-55kt in advance of an organizing QLCS during the late morning and
    early afternoon. Models have trended upward with CAPE values due
    cooler temperatures aloft combined with slightly higher dewpoints.
    These same models have also underplayed warm sector dewpoints during
    recent systems, so it is possible that SBCAPE could reach 1500 J/kg.
    This amount of instability overlapping with 0-1km shear of 30-40kt
    would support a slightly higher tornado threat than previously
    indicated. Additionally, the ECMWF shows surface to 500mb crossovers
    that are much more favorable for supercells and clockwise curved
    hodographs across East Alabama. This solution is an outlier but will
    be monitored closely. Models are also more impressive with surface
    pressure troughing and backed surface flow east of I-65 during the
    afternoon. Our threat area will be expanded eastward accordingly.
     
  15. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    8E70D3D3-24AC-49E2-BB3A-644A4729A5FB.gif
    Latest from SPC.
     
  16. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    FFC
     
  17. DadOfJax

    DadOfJax Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    364
    Likes Received:
    216
    Location:
    Etowah County
    Increasing TOR threat per the Euro...instability just keeps creeping up with each model run. This may be a day of catch up.
     
  18. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    DBCCFD9A-B975-465C-A1B3-1AEA427A5994.gif
    Latest from SPC:
     
  19. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    BA3FB833-0BF6-4BA8-9038-F126DCE8C7DF.gif
    Latest from SPC:
    FFC:
     
  20. gaikkeb

    gaikkeb Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    16
    Likes Received:
    5
    Location:
    Lawrenceville, GA
    Does anyone know why WSBTV mets have to change the SPC color key for the severe weather? Right now it looks like a for slight risk of storms in Metro Atlanta and then the south western little area is in enhanced because they changed the colors. Are they trying to spook their audiences? I am well aware of the SPC color key and an avid amateur weather watcher but what about the rest of the people in GA that aren't? Is it worth it to try and contact Burns and see if he will respond? o_O This has been bothering me for a while and because we are about to go into severe weather mode I'm hoping ya'll can help figure this out.

    Here's to hoping that the areas that were hit hard on March 19 just get gentle rains and some spring thunder and nothing else!
     
  21. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    3,964
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    They do it because they want to show the area most likely to get the severe weather. Yeah, they should be consistent with spc, but I don't think one person asking will change their minds. You would need dozens of people to comment about it before they decide to change it.
     
  22. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    9327FE72-9FBC-4EA2-BE54-22888C003303.gif
    Latest from SPC:
     
  23. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    17E44E51-B645-48BF-93E0-C358BECB8EE5.gif
    Latest from SPC:
     
  24. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    228
    Likes Received:
    81
    Location:
    Morris, AL (Northern Jefferson County)
    Temp fell 10 degrees as the line on the leading edge of the showers/storms came by my house.
     
  25. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    Latest from SPC:
     
  26. Phillip l

    Phillip l Member

    Joined:
    Mar 30, 2017
    Messages:
    186
    Likes Received:
    63
    Location:
    Barnesville, ga
    Glen does not like the SPC outlook. He prefers to use numbers to the slight, moderate, etc. He says that the wording is confusing. As far as the colors I have no idea. They should stick to green and yellow but, oh well.
     
    Rosie likes this.
  27. Snowflowxxl

    Snowflowxxl Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    826
    Likes Received:
    556
    Location:
    Atlanta
    Should get some good rain here soon.
     
  28. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    3,964
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    Pouring rain and gusts here with the line. Decent rain to wash the pollen off.
     
  29. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    1,030
    Likes Received:
    426
    Location:
    Not telling
    Wasn’t as bad as I thought it would be.
     

Share This Page