Tropical Major Hurricane Lee

Another strong tropical wave immediately in the wake of 96L has emerged off Africa and has shown some signs of organization (& rightfully so as a modest CCKW passes over the region). Model support is not quite as high w/ this system but they may not be handling the upstream dispersion terribly well (as usual) & some development is possible as it heads into the central Atlantic...

2. Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and
the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is
possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less
favorable. The system is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent



Post away

 

On the fast track to Lee at this rate



Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 300 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands have
continued to become better organized this afternoon. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Friday. This
system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic during the next
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

 

upgrade at 11pm

AL, 14, 2017091500, , BEST, 0, 105N, 247W, 30, 1010, TD

 

Yeah this is definitely at least a TD, maybe even a low grade TS atm. Rarely see curved banding like that on anything less than a strong (50-55+ knot) TS.

 

70 mph peak, forecast to be Lee very soon

 

not buying that right now

 

Yeah it may not go out to sea terribly quickly, especially if it weakens after day 3 due to increasing southwesterly shear from a digging TUTT that's currently over the north-central Atlantic. It's future is also heavily dependent on 96L in front of it, if it strengthens considerably, this could impart excess westerly wind shear on TD 14 that may further limit its development the next several days. Lots of moving parts/pieces need to be sorted out. Regardless, I think we can say at this point that odds are TD 14 is liable to hit something down the road, we just don't know what that something is & its largely dependent on the convoluted evolution of Jose...

 

Hard to really say w/o an ASCAT pass, but there's a chance the NHC might have pulled the trigger too early...

 

If this thing doesn't get moving it won't be Lee and I really don't want 96L to be Lee lol

 

Well Lee looks like hot garbage

 

Final advisory

 

he's backkkk????

Special TWO

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a low pressure area,
the remnants of Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
Islands. Satellite wind data show that the low is already producing
gale-force winds, and only a small increase in the organization of
the deep convection would result in the regeneration of Lee.
However, the environmental conditions are only marginal favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This low is expected to move
northward over the central Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

 

60/70

and the UKMET has this close to a hurricane too

If it can make hurricane that will be 8 in a row... Franklin-Maria

 

Updated: A small area of low pressure has developed over the
central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east-southeast of
Bermuda. The low is producing a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms, although the circulation appears somewhat elongated.
Some additional development of this system is possible during the
next few days while it moves slowly northward through early next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Blake
Here we go again.

 

Still not sure if this is Lee or Nate the 2pm two now says it's ex lee after earlier not mentioning that

 

It's backkk