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Tropical Major Hurricane Lee

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Webberweather53, Sep 14, 2017.

  1. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Another strong tropical wave immediately in the wake of 96L has emerged off Africa and has shown some signs of organization (& rightfully so as a modest CCKW passes over the region). Model support is not quite as high w/ this system but they may not be handling the upstream dispersion terribly well (as usual) & some development is possible as it heads into the central Atlantic...

    2. Another tropical wave, located between the west coast of Africa and
    the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing a large area of disorganized
    shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development of this system is
    possible over the next few days before upper-level winds become less
    favorable. The system is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 mph
    across the far eastern tropical Atlantic for the next several days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

    Screen Shot 2017-09-14 at 9.26.58 AM.png

    Post away
     
    WeatherLC likes this.
  2. Brent

    Brent Member

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    On the fast track to Lee at this rate



    Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
    located about 300 miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands have
    continued to become better organized this afternoon. Environmental
    conditions are expected to remain conducive for development, and
    a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or Friday
    . This
    system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10
    to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic during the next
    couple of days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
     
  3. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    I will be looking for TD 14 tonight it appears than by 11 or wake up to it tomorrow. Just insane how this thing developed fast. However, it's this one that will be OTS waaaaay out.
     
  4. Brent

    Brent Member

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    upgrade at 11pm

    AL, 14, 2017091500, , BEST, 0, 105N, 247W, 30, 1010, TD
     
  5. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Yeah this is definitely at least a TD, maybe even a low grade TS atm. Rarely see curved banding like that on anything less than a strong (50-55+ knot) TS.
    [​IMG]
     
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  6. whatalife

    whatalife Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Yep. I 100% agree.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  7. Brent

    Brent Member

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    70 mph peak, forecast to be Lee very soon
     
  8. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Close enough to possibly squeeze in a weak cat 1, but who knows. Lee will be the next advisory I bet or by 5 am.
     
  9. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    North? Not so fast.[​IMG]
     
  10. PEA_RIDGE

    PEA_RIDGE FIREFIGHTER Member

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    not buying that right now
     
  11. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Yeah it may not go out to sea terribly quickly, especially if it weakens after day 3 due to increasing southwesterly shear from a digging TUTT that's currently over the north-central Atlantic. It's future is also heavily dependent on 96L in front of it, if it strengthens considerably, this could impart excess westerly wind shear on TD 14 that may further limit its development the next several days. Lots of moving parts/pieces need to be sorted out. Regardless, I think we can say at this point that odds are TD 14 is liable to hit something down the road, we just don't know what that something is & its largely dependent on the convoluted evolution of Jose...
     
  12. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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  13. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Hard to really say w/o an ASCAT pass, but there's a chance the NHC might have pulled the trigger too early...
    avn0.gif
     
  14. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Well the idea of this storm becoming strong just went out the window. Only expecting 45 at max now. Depression for the next day.
     
  15. Brent

    Brent Member

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    If this thing doesn't get moving it won't be Lee and I really don't want 96L to be Lee lol
     
  16. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Looks like we have tropical storm Lee here.
     
  17. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Well Lee looks like hot garbage
     
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  18. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Final advisory
     
  19. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    At last. Glad we don't have to keep watching this.
     
  20. Brent

    Brent Member

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    he's backkkk????

    Special TWO

    Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a low pressure area,
    the remnants of Lee, located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward
    Islands. Satellite wind data show that the low is already producing
    gale-force winds, and only a small increase in the organization of
    the deep convection would result in the regeneration of Lee.
    However, the environmental conditions are only marginal favorable
    for tropical cyclone formation. This low is expected to move
    northward over the central Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
     
  21. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Winds at 45 mph too... may see a second chance.
     
  22. Brent

    Brent Member

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    60/70

    and the UKMET has this close to a hurricane too

    If it can make hurricane that will be 8 in a row... Franklin-Maria
     
  23. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    The HWRF and HMON both are on board with a hurricane too... if that happens the CMC sniffed the idea of a longer Lee.
     
  24. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Updated: A small area of low pressure has developed over the
    central Atlantic Ocean almost a thousand miles east-southeast of
    Bermuda. The low is producing a concentrated area of showers and
    thunderstorms, although the circulation appears somewhat elongated.
    Some additional development of this system is possible during the
    next few days while it moves slowly northward through early next
    week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

    $$
    Forecaster Berg/Blake
    Here we go again.
     
  25. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    At first, I thought this was Lee, but then again, I realized it wasn't. I think the CMC sniffed this out, but gave up.
     
  26. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Still not sure if this is Lee or Nate the 2pm two now says it's ex lee after earlier not mentioning that
     
  27. Brent

    Brent Member

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    It's backkk
     
  28. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Well then. That's weird. Congrats CMC and HWRF and HMON for believing in bringing the storm back.
     
  29. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    I have to wonder if Lee can become a hurricane given the forecast intensity is maxed at 70 mph.
     
  30. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Back to a tropical storm. Who would have ever thought it would happen . Glad it's not like Harvey.
     

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