Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

[Xtreme Weather]

Per radar Irma moving WNW just barely a N component on the loop

 

[accu35]

Considering Irma is moving at a W/WNW, i have a hard time believing that it will go due north. I think she is gonna follow suit with the EPS members

 

[accu35]

Per radar Irma moving WNW just barely a N component on the loop

If she stays wnw by tonight or early morning, then she will be west of this 18z run.

 

[WeatherWatch]

5pm update, track is now more west and NHC is projecting Irma to remain a hurricane up to GA.

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[Catfish]

Hurricane warning from Key West to Tifton, GA. Never seen that before.

 

[pcbjr]

Hurricane warning from Key West to Tifton, GA. Never seen that before.

none of us have seen this before ...

 

[deltadog03]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-vis-long.html
This next point *nhc forecast point* will be super telling for sure.
** you have to turn on the forecast points*

 

[Xtreme Weather]

If she stays wnw by tonight or early morning, then she will be west of this 18z run.

Only 105 nmi from Key West would have to almost turn NW next couple hours to get there then due N

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Good update from Dr. Tim Coleman
http://birmingham.raycomweather.com

 

[NWMSGuy]

Looks like it's moving west on Satellite. Not sure though.

 

[Jackstraw]

From this point you can toss out models like these thats start off wrong

Models are still useful for the short term trends at the steering level. Watch how they develop the steering flow then apply that to what you see real time and don't lend too much weight to their forecast track. Getting into the time frame the Met's start really earning their money as humans can discern the finer nuances of the atmosphere at this range if they are worth their salt and have experience. Just my opinion as a carbon based entity

 

[pcbjr]

Models are still useful for the short term trends at the steering level. Watch how they develop the steering flow then apply that to what you see real time and don't lend too much weight to their forecast track. Getting into the time frame the Met's start really earning their money as humans can discern the finer nuances of the atmosphere at this range if they are worth their salt and have experience. Just my opinion as a carbon based entity

JS - So glad you're here, Man!
Aiko ...

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Looks like it's moving west on Satellite. Not sure though.

Yes Per radar almost moving due W

 

[WeatherWatch]

OK.. total novice here.. looking at the 18z.. the high over the great lakes appears to be expanding.. what does that mean?

I can see what you're talking about. Due to the ridge expanding, that is what is going to steer Irma more on a west track now vs a north track. Ridges and troughs steer wind currents and the tracks of low pressure systems.

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[Jackstraw]

West at like 1 mph. It's stalled imo. Big moment here folks. Stalling systems seem to either sit or get picked up. Big big moment here. Plus the ERC thingy it's doing showing some significant weakening in the winds. This could be a turning point, no pun intended.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Almost looks to be moving SW
Also new eye wall forming near the center wrapping up nicely

 

[VegasEagle]

Southern most point Key West Cam

 

[WeatherWatch]

From the last update from the NHC, they said it's moving WNW. To me, it appears to be moving westerly with some WSW wobbles. Irma should cut WNW at any moment or later this evening/tonight. If not, then there's more of a GOM threat.

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[Shawn]

HRRR tugs it NW very soon.

 

[Snow_chaser]

What causes so many of these ERCs? Seems like every time I read about it going through one and pressures drop, but it doesn't seem to be intensifying even though the eye tightens up.