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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 2)

Euro EPS still loaded to the W of the OP
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Storm5 said:
My question is , are ensembles even useful at this point ??

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Yeah, the spaghetti plots are mostly all in line now with the track of Irma.

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pcbjr said:
She took a taste of Cuba and does not like soil ... Does she like Tampa cigars? Or Big Bend grouper sandwiches? Or Creole? Or is she hummin' "Alabama Getaway"? This thing is far from settled ...
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it's not gonna surprise me if it stays west and hits the Florida panhandle. Models have been trending west for some time now.
 
Just a note and my opinion here, not questioning the NHC's track. The last time Irma started a full on ERC it took on a westward component that ended up with it land falling into Cuba. If this is the beginning of another it could get interesting. Remember even though ridges and trofs are drawn as nice smoth lines on maps and graphics they are anything but especially from the surface up. There will be parts of the ridge at different levels that stick out farther or digress inward farther. There are "ripples (Phil)" of fluctuating pressures around the periphery of these features not smooth lines. That's a reason they stair step when rounding ridges.. As Irma goes through an ERC (If thats whats getting ready to happen) different levels of that ridge will have different pressure effects on the storms core as it slightly weakens and re-organizes. The same is true for the trof affecting it. The reason I bring it up is because the angle it is approaching, a 5 mile jog now could mean 25 up by Tampa when/if it gets there. These subtleties are very hard to forecast especially when the features are over water where there is very little sampling, the math has to do the forecasting. This storm really is riding a fine line and a subtle detail could make very large difference in the next 36 hours. Just a :weenie:thought from a :weenie::D
 
Well, being in the bullseye early seems to be paying off. It's getting further and further away with it's low center. Opens up a whole lot of stink for folks south and west. T
 
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