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Tropical Major Hurricane Irma (Part 1)

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Yesterday's 0z EPS vs today's 0z EPS... Notice the southwestward shift overall with more members beginning to take this over the Greater Antilles and/or into the Caribbean & potentially the Gulf of Mexico. That's the last place that needs a TC right now.

Yesterday's 0z EPS
DIeY7XqVYAEfR_T.jpg-large.jpg

Today's 0z EPS
DIeepkBUwAE7pEZ.jpg-large.jpg
 
If I have learned anything about Hurricanes on this side of the world, it is to beware the "I" named storms. Isidore (2002) Isabel (2003) Ivan (2004) Ike (2008) Irene (2011) This is of course assuming this becomes "Irma". Edit: With the exception of Irene, all of these storms hit the US in the month of September.
 
Webberweather53 said:
NHC is going straight to Irma at 11am
AL, 11, 2017083012, IRMA
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And here we go... I really don't have much to add other than some great analysis on here, thanks Webb for going into such detail about the potential. All I know is we need to keep a watch on this as the all too familiar statement goes... prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
 
Weatherlover92 said:
If I have learned anything about Hurricanes on this side of the world, it is to beware the "I" named storms. Isidore (2002) Isabel (2003) Ivan (2004) Ike (2008) Irene (2011) This is of course assuming this becomes "Irma". Edit: With the exception of Irene, all of these storms hit the US in the month of September.
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Larry said recently 7 out of 16 storms named with I hit the US between 2000 and 2016, which is quite high. That includes Irene, Ike, and Ivan to name a few. I have a bad feeling about this one...
 
Weatherlover92 said:
If I have learned anything about Hurricanes on this side of the world, it is to beware the "I" named storms. Isidore (2002) Isabel (2003) Ivan (2004) Ike (2008) Irene (2011) This is of course assuming this becomes "Irma". Edit: With the exception of Irene, all of these storms hit the US in the month of September.
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Yeah and with PTC 10 being a dud it couldn't even get the "I" storm out of our way.......
 
Tropical tidbits already has Irma up on the current storm page...
I know this is a unique setup and Webb has laid that out in great detail but it's certainly not often a storm forms that far east and makes landfall, we shall see plenty of model watching to go with this one
 
Well here is the early model track guidance for 12z and most make that SW movement that is concerning..
aal93_2017083012_track_early.png


11L_tracks_latest.png
 
T
Webberweather53 said:
Yesterday's 0z EPS vs today's 0z EPS... Notice the southwestward shift overall with more members beginning to take this over the Greater Antilles and/or into the Caribbean & potentially the Gulf of Mexico. That's the last place that needs a TC right now.

Yesterday's 0z EPS
View attachment 995

Today's 0z EPS
View attachment 996
Click to expand...
That SW jog on the track from the latest EPS run is concerning! The longer or steeper that jog, the harder it'll be for the recurve to miss the Eastcoast!
 
The first big hurdle wrt long track of Irma (aside from intensity of the TC) is the placement of this upper level trough (indicated by the meridionally orientated cluster of moderate convection on its eastern flank NW of Irma) about halfway between Bermuda and the Azores. The European model backs it southwestward much faster and weakens it more quickly than other guidance and thus allows the Azores-Bermuda high to remain largely in tact and build in ahead of Irma pushing it W-WNW, whereas the CMC & GFS slow this ULL down and allow it to remain relatively stronger, which provides just enough of a weakness in the western flank of the ridge for Irma to travel NW before reaching PR and the Lesser Antilles...
gem_z500aNorm_atl_25.png

gfs_z500aNorm_atl_21.png

ecmwf_z500aNorm_atl_6.png
 
You can clearly see where this ULL is, right on the leading edge of the SAL just to the west of all the convection going off... As mentioned above this is going to be a very key feature in steering Irma in about 3-4 days or so...

vis-animated.gif
 
Please, and i hate to say it, but this storm has the US. written all over it. The south dive really concerns me because it could easly miss the trough. Especially if the troughs is a quick mover.. Plus like someone mention before, if the storm slow down that gives it time to miss the trough. Yes, long 2 weeks og watching.
 
Hope this curves out to sea, but have a bad feeling about this one. The first two weeks of September are notorious for big hurricanes for NC.
 
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