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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
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Not really, the ridge actually strengthens between hr210 and hr240. That is a very dangerous look for the eastern US.
Kylo
Member
Kylo
Member
Way out there but a few Florence members getting close by day 11 and another potential one heading towards the Caribbean.
Looks like flo might have a LLC out running convection right now. Combine that with increasing shear and marginal SSTs over the coming days and a weaker system that will be farther west becomes a higher possibility.
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I thought it looked as if the highs shifting east not breaking down, but I stand corrected... it does look ominous
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS intensity forecast thru 36-48 HR is going to look very silly if something doesn't change in a hurry w/ Florence.
You can see the bend back west northwest on the euro toward the end of the run in the image below. The euro might still recurve at the coast
Yeah in 42 hours the 6z had flo at 986 and the 0z euro at 48 hrs was 1003. The euro weakens the system even more after that time period while the gfs holds steady.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Shocker lol.
"All but the GFS and HWRF
models have picked up on this more westerly component of motion, and
the ECMWF and UKMET models are now the southernmost models in the
guidance suite. Since the ridge to the north is expected to remain
intact and even build more westward over the next 5 days, the new
NHC track forecast has been shifted southward and to the left of the
previous advisory track..."
"All but the GFS and HWRF
models have picked up on this more westerly component of motion, and
the ECMWF and UKMET models are now the southernmost models in the
guidance suite. Since the ridge to the north is expected to remain
intact and even build more westward over the next 5 days, the new
NHC track forecast has been shifted southward and to the left of the
previous advisory track..."
ForsythSnow
Moderator
And I'm sure the track will keep shifting west and south. The latest advisory also weakened Florence back to 50 mph due to poor organization. It'll likely stay that way until it gets closer to land or the Caribbean unless the environment is unfavorable there.
Oh boy, it seems that we have a double threat.
Brent
Member
why do I keep thinking of Andrew
Same thoughts as well, that Euro look screams a rare southwest turn(for that location of the Atlantic) as the ridge builds in.
Brent
Member
Andrew nearly died in the Central Atlantic too due to shear and dry air
and now we have Florence struggling
The 12z CMC shows a eastern seaboard landfall. Keeps the Ridge intacted.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Only thing is that it would be anywhere between N FL to NC I would say if it took that route. However, it would be a cat 3 or 2 at the strongest unless something else happens.
That's another possible scenario. We could get it going up the East coast and not making direct landfall or making it around VA as likely just a strong cat 1 or 2 It just has to get closer before we can guess where it's going but for sure it's going to be a lot of watching if it doesn't recurve.
Kylo
Member
UK is southwest of CMC at day 6. It does have an alley out but if it misses that with the big ridge behind it.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GFS keeps coming more and more west each run, but refuses to keep a weak storm like the other models advertise until it gets closer.
12z euro by day ten paints a very threatening picture for the east coast