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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

But I also see the blue line in the US for the first time I think? Yea, that tight loop on the GFS brings it right up the apps. not terrible rainfall but still some risk. I am just glad nothing is showing anything like the EC was into the mountains any more. I can't imagine what 40" of rain in the mountains near Hickory would do.
When we were looking at 20", that is something I have never seen. There was a thunderstorm in may here that dumped 6" and there were mudslides and trees down in many locations. Those EC runs over the weekend were just scary.
 
Actually, we may be near the end of insanity ... until ...

gth_full.png

... somebody decides a snowstorm in Montana is worth tracking ... :D
 
So, the GFS takes her to Wilmington, stalls, then goes back down to Charleston, and then goes inland and heads NW. Is that right?
 
CLASSIC GFS brings Florence back at D9. Has it redeveloping and and making landfall on FL/GA border on day 13. Then has it being pushed SE by a trough toward the Bahama's. Partially phases it on day 15 then at hour 384 the trough lifts out and leaves what is left of Florence in the Bahamas.
 
ncskywarn said:
CLASSIC GFS brings Florence back at D9. Has it redeveloping and and making landfall on FL/GA border on day 13. Then has it being pushed SE by a trough toward the Bahama's. Partially phases it on day 15 then at hour 384 the trough lifts out and leaves what is left of Florence in the Bahamas.
Click to expand...

Flo sure does get around.
 
FV3 agrees with Euro, EPS, & GFS now, basically.
 
FFC's forecast discussion.....the first sentence says all that needs to be known about Florence. lol
.LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

Main focus of course is how Florence evolves and recent guidance
is not much help with gaining certainty. The latest GFS has
similar landfall though drifts the remnants farther to the west
through the weekend, while the Euro oddly keeps the center near
the Carolina coastline longer and tracks SW along the SC coast
before heading more inland. The latter of the solutions would be
the least desirable of course given a more maintained system
feeding off the Gulf Stream and possible more impacts for far east
GA, while any westward shift would bring an increased heavy
rainfall/flood threat. As far as the grids go, have adjusted
upward some chance pops in parts of the north and east late
Saturday through Monday. Definitely keeping a close eye on every
update and will adjust as warranted given any increase in
consistency or consensus. Previous discussion follows...

Baker

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM EDT Tue Sep 11 2018/

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Our attention will quickly turn to major Hurricane Florence
with an estimated landfall Friday morning along the NC coast
roughly between the SC border and Cape Hatteras. The question
is what then and after watching things for the past several
nights, it is fairly clear that the computer models do not
know with any certainty at all.

The 00Z GFS stalls Florence not too far from Cape Hatteras then
loops it to the west-northwest to the southern Appalachians and then
to the north roughly in the Friday to Monday timeframe.

The 00Z European brings Florence to the lower NC coast as it more
or less has been doing, now stalls it briefly, then moves it west
into NE GA and then north through Monday.

Florence is expected to weaken significantly while moving over the
mainland. These 2 scenarios would more or less mean some increased
winds and rain chances from the remnants of Florence as it moves
toward GA. The question will then be how fast does Florence weaken,
how strong might the winds be and how much rainfall will effect the
CWA. Roughly, the NE cwa would be affected the most.

Again, there is NO certainty to this forecast and we will just have
to watch how things may play out.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...FC&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1
 
Even with the stall and southwest drift Florence is still modeled as a formidable wind event for this area. Gfs and euro have sustained winds in the 20-30 range with gusts 40-55. I could see a wind distribution in this area similar to Matthew

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
2073cfea1830094bcb45e4a24a42c0dd.jpg
 
...DANGEROUS FLORENCE HEADED FOR THE U.S. EAST COAST... ...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
8:00 PM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 28.0°N 67.9°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
 
Just spoke to my neighbor who is an insurance agent and he said no new polices or changes can be made to existing policies in NC and SC until the storm is gone. So no cars can be sold or home closings until this is gone he said.
 
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