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Tropical Major Hurricane Florence

I am interested in seeing how quickly this ramps down once it gets to the coast. I don't think it will be a dry air issue, or at least not like it usually is.
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NWTENN said:
National Hurricane Center not buying the coastal stalling bit.... it slows, but nothing like a stall or southwestern drift.
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oh I think they are buying into it, but they are not going to adjust to that just yet...and for very good reason. But, the track tells me that they definitely see the trends from the models today.
 
I have to read the discussion on that hpc route. There's not much of a change, so I'm guessing they said smack it, let's just curve it a bit more toward clt.

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Storm5 said:
Wow all north Georgia now in the cone


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They had to put it in the cone. The edge of the cone is like literally the track of the Euro ENS mean, lol. I don't know how to post tweets, but Allan basically said he has no idea what's going to happen either at this point, other than watch out SE NC.

Edit, lol I did it some how...
 
NHC is pretty confident in the track forecast through 72 hours, but is uncertain for days 3-5:

The 12Z GFS model made a
significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east,
and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72
hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track
shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and
regional models are indicating that the steering currents will
collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S.
coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through
the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite
uncertain. The latest NHC forecast track is very similar to the
previous two advisory tracks, and lies the middle of the guidance
envelope between the consensus models TVCA to the north and the HCCA
and FSSE models to the south.
 
deltadog03 said:
oh I think they are buying into it, but they are not going to adjust to that just yet...and for very good reason. But, the track tells me that they definitely see the trends from the models today.
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I'm sure you're right. I'm just saying their track doesn't reflect it. Slow adjustments are always prudent in their position.
 
South AL Wx said:
What is noticeable is that all of the global and
regional models are indicating that the steering currents will
collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S.
coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through
the weekend
Click to expand...
I had a dog ... Bingo was his name ohh...
 
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