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Pattern Magnificent March

ForsythSnow said:
Lol was it not just recently you said to me that those maps mean virtually nothing? That being said, the mountains are the only place I woulc expect anything and maybe token flakes at best outside the mountains.
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I did but it certainly wasn't "recently". Those maps are essentially regurgitating climatology and what we've been saying since day 1 with this pattern that's the only reason they're worth posting here. Unless you're along/north of I-40, especially in the mountains, far NW piedmont or VA border counties and points N, your chances of snow are shot. The system at day 7-8 on the GFS would probably produce some token flakes in much of central NC if it wasn't for the spurious low-level mixed layer in the lowest 100mb in the model that keeps temps above the wet bulb in spite of there being moderate precipitation falling into the layer. As observed in the most recent storm in the NE US, this model's low-level thermal profiles are extremely unreliable in marginal events and the mixed layer in the lowest part of the sounding is an artifact attributable to its PBL scheme.
 
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1300m said:
I don't mean this to be rude, but it really just doesn't work that way. By this logic, it should snow in June. If there's no ample supply of cold air into the region, you can have a 1065mb high in perfect position and it won't matter because it'll be delivering warm air into the system.
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On the surface this seems sensible but hydrostatic balance & the ideal gas law dictates that if you have a high of that intensity at the surface the air in the lower troposphere has to be dense (& is probably cold-very cold as a result), thus it's very unlikely that it wouldn't be pumping cold air into a particular region plus you won't get highs of that intensity in June, if we did, we'd be in an ice age. I get what you're saying but I think it's being taken too far. Not to mention, the background pressures are lower in the summer, if anything if you were to implant a high of that intensity into a stereotypical summertime pattern and let the atmosphere adjust, the ageostrophic near-surface pressure gradient accelerations & concomitant temperature advection would be more intense from an idealistic standpoint
 
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1300m said:
I'm not getting into another back and forth with you but yet again you did not interpret what I said correctly. Before you continue on with your novella that you are still updating 28 minutes later, I'd recommend going back and finding where I said June and 1065mb high in the same thought.
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If your background temperatures are warm (which aruges for lower MSLP) and you stick a massive cold high into the picture analogous to January, the thermal wind and ageostrophic pressure gradient accelerations will be stronger because your temperature and concomitant pressure gradient are more intense which leads to stronger advections, this is common sense and basic meteorological principles of hydrostatic adjustment. To avert this you'd require a major topographic barrier but then in that case you'd be instituting massive & likely unrealistically large mountain torques.
 
1300m said:
I'm not getting into another back and forth with you but yet again you did not interpret what I said correctly. Before you continue on with your novella that you are still updating 26 minutes later, I'd recommend going back and finding where I said June and 1065mb high in the same thought.
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I really don't see the point in making these arguments and clogging up the March thread. Why can't you guys discuss it on PM?
 
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