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Tropical Karen

Good news: 12Z Euro's hour 6 position (for 2 PM EDT) is near perfect vs reality. It is a little SW of the 6Z hour 12 and the 0Z hour 18. It is almost as if it knew about the shift of the center SW. That's pretty impressive that it was able to adjust like that unless it was just lucky.

So, since the initialization of the 12Z Euro was excellent, the run will be that much more informative.
 
Based on the 12Z Euro being quite a bit SW of the 6Z and W of the 0Z, the 12Z should start moving westward at a lower latitude than the 6Z's 29N and from a further west longitude than the 60W of both the 6Z and 12Z. Let's see if this is what happens.
 
12z Euro: Based on hour 84, I expect a S FL hit later on this run, possibly south of the 0Z.
 
How much slowing would have to occur for all three tropical storms to dance around a common point? I mean Jerry is slow, Karen is reforming south and gonna loop and Lorenzo is large and moving west at 16mph.
 
Ethan80963! said:
Maybe its because they are still recovering from the brunt of Irma and are still trying to rebuild their infrastructure.
Click to expand...
True at least it’s a tropical storm it may very well erase the moderate drought status. May do more helping than harm I think.
 
Getting close
ecmwf_uv850_vort_seus_7.png
 
Per Webber, leftover cooler waters should keep it from strengthening a lot on that euro track in the Bahamas.
 
12Z Euro Shear not as strong as 0Z. As of hour 168: Slowing down markedly last few frames. It didn't slow like this on the 0Z. Now due south of the 0Z position after earlier being SW of the 0Z.
 
Looks like the ridge in this version retreated just a smidge....which has been my worry from the beginning.

ecmwf_mslpa_atl_fh144_trend.gif
 
Looks to go directly over the cooler waters instead of near Cuba/South Florida where it would have a chance of going wild...like when it showed a major entering the GOM due to avoiding cooler waters and moving south-west.
 
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