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Pattern Jarring January

Clayton Reid said:
Can we realistically expect it to trend back in our favor?
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It's a weather model.It just started showing the cold. The cold on the 2 runs of the Euro and EPS aren't even a trend yet.
The idea is energy flying around, and we are just now trying to figure out if the cold modeled will be realized.

Weather models should not be used as a forecast or as gospel. They are tools.
 
GaWx said:
12Z Euro: KATL's coldest still down to 14 F 9vs the 0Z Euro's 12 F) on 1/17 during strong cold air advection. On 1/18, the cold is radiative meaning KATL won't be nearly as cold but places that radiate well would be down into the mid to upper teens again per the run.
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Wow. And the snowstorm goes right out the window. Truly pathetic.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Wow. And the snowstorm goes right out the window. Truly pathetic.
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it was never in the window in the first place. There's no point imo in worrying about the details for something like this, which could easily turn out to be nothing being that it is so far out, other than for pure entertainment. I said last night I hoped others would ignore the 0Z Euro snow figuring it would likely go away but I figured it wouldn't be ignored. This is merely a very random guess way way out in the future.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Can we realistically expect it to trend back in our favor?
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You can realistically expect it to change some from run-to-run from what it's showing now. Lot's of lead time and changes happening every run right now. Whether or not it's more "favorable" for anyone's backyard is subjective.
 
Shawn said:
It's a weather model.It just started showing the cold. The cold on the 2 runs of the Euro and EPS aren't even a trend yet.
The idea is energy flying around, and we are just now trying to figure out if the cold modeled will be realized.

Weather models should not be used as a forecast or as gospel. They are tools.
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If things trends back in our favor it'll be a sight to see for sure. We lost so many times it's ridiculous, so I'm just pessimistic and skeptical about our chances now sense it always turns out to be a Trainwreck in the end.
 
Clayton Reid said:
If things trends back in our favor it'll be a sight to see for sure. We lost so many times it's ridiculous, so I'm just pessimistic and skeptical about our chances now sense it always turns out to be a Trainwreck in the end.
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When you approach all of this from the standpoint of meaningful snowfall being an infrequent if not rare event for the mid and Deep South, it’s easy to accept. Still plenty of opportunities possible.


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GaWx said:
Relax. Breathe deeply. Life will go on.
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Yeah, that's for sure. I give up. This is literally to the point where its almost laughable. Those people at North most be laughing at us that we can get all this cold and no snow to show for it. Pathetic haha
 
Clayton Reid said:
Yeah, that's for sure. I give up. This is literally to the point where its almost laughable. Those people at North most be laughing at us that we can get all this cold and no snow to show for it. Pathetic haha
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Reality check: you live in the south in a city where the average annual snowfall is just over 2” meaning that we can go several winters in a row without anything. That “threat” is in the long range and has showed up a few times.. no strong signal.. can’t lose something if you don’t have it.
 
Lots of support for a system end of next week on the 12z eps . Timing and what happens in the NE will play a huge part as to how it turns out
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GaWx said:
Even the 12Z EPS gives KATL a low in the middle teens on 1/17 and KRDU something similar on 1/18! The 0Z EPS was similar. What a way to have a post 1/15 warmup! ;)
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LOL: We are torching here today during this big thaw , Currently 51 degrees
 
EastAtlwx said:
Reality check: you live in the south in a city where the average annual snowfall is just over 2” meaning that we can go several winters in a row without anything. That “threat” is in the long range and has showed up a few times.. no strong signal.. can’t lose something if you don’t have it.
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Yeah. It sucks. I always hope that it'll change one day. We need a ice age or something. Living this reality makes weather boring in the winter. Nothing is more interesting to me in winter than snow other than that it's just warmth, sun and thunderstorms. Not really exciting if u ask me.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Yeah. It sucks. I always hope that it'll change one day. We need a ice age or something. Living this reality makes weather boring in the winter. Nothing is more interesting to me in winter than snow other than that it's just warmth, sun and thunderstorms. Not really exciting if u ask me.
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A mini ice age would likely be too cold to snow and argue for suppression of any potential Wintry weather. I'm not sure you would want that.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Im more inclined to think that is correct with the warmth. I don't see a good deal of potential with this. I mean it's not like it'll get back cold when the system comes because we all know the warmth eventually wins out it seems when moisture comes back. So
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There is potential with this system. While it is warm this run...I’m not sold that the warmth will win out.


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Clayton Reid said:
Ok, can I ask what are your expectations in regards to winter weather? I mean 1-3 inches of snow may be good, but to me it seems like some are overdue for 6+. I mean come on. With gulf moisture and cold air 6+ inches down here shouldn't be to much to ask. Yet we can hardly get an inch sometimes. I wish we could have storms like 1936, 1940, etc. Again. Yet even that seems like a once in a lifetime and out of our reach.
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6 inches of snow and Atlanta should never be mentioned in the same sentence. You are expecting a once or twice in a lifetime storm to be the norm. I live north of Nashville and I’ve had one storm in 11 years that went over 6 inches. Heck even 5 inches I can count on one hand how many of those happened. Your expectations are way to high for areas that are 200-300 miles north of you yet alone Atlanta.
 
Clayton, the Atlanta area just experienced a once in a lifetime type snowstorm just a month ago. Not everybody got so lucky, but the odds of something like that happening in the next 20 years is very unlikely.
 
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