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Pattern Jarring January

Brick Tamland said:
So do we still have three possible events or two? I know this Thursday and Friday is one, and looks like the 31st and 1st after that. Is there another one for a couple of days later? Just trying to keep up. I think it might just be better to have a thread for each possible event at this time.
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The "third" showed up on the 4-6 time frame, but has been shifting in the time frame..
 
Brick Tamland said:
So do we still have three possible events or two? I know this Thursday and Friday is one, and looks like the 31st and 1st after that. Is there another one for a couple of days later? Just trying to keep up. I think it might just be better to have a thread for each possible event at this time.
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Yes, in fact the EPS suite is starting to pick up on a threat on the 27th, at the very least it could be worth expanding the dates of the current thread but it would appear this may be a separate storm system from the 28-29th, there's more spread in the timing regarding the storm in early January but there's a 3rd distinct threat ~January 2-6. A few members are finally sniffing out another potential threat near New Years so yea I guess you could say there are at least 4 potential candidates for snow/ice between now and January 7

KRDU_2017122400_eps24_snow_360.png
 
Apparently, word on the street is, if we get that stupid little suprise storm on the 27th, it'll mess up the 29/30th storm!?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Apparently, word on the street is, if we get that stupid little suprise storm on the 27th, it'll mess up the 29/30th storm!?
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I don't really buy that logic from snowgoose69 on american given that there's enough separation here between the two (nearly a full wavelength of the planetary-scale waves they're embedded in) that if the system on the 27th is in fact stronger, that'll act to amplify the 50-50 low just offshore of Newfoundland and Labrador and amplify the ridge downstream of our primary shortwave which will still be over the plains as this is occurring, slowing our storm down and giving it an opportunity to dig. If however, they were located within half a wavelength of one another and/or in the same ridge axes or trough base, it would be a different story. As we recently observed in February 2014, the weak overrunning event on the February 11 2014 apparently did little, if anything to slow the progress of our primary storm on the 12th-13th. While the overrunning event on the 27th was more impressive on this Euro run, the parent shortwave was generally weaker which actually may have contributed to a weaker, drier solution later on the 28th-29th
ecmwf_z500_vort_conus_15.png
 
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The arcc/extreme weather winter thread will be open late tomorrow
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
I don't really buy that logic from snowgoose69 on american given that there's enough separation here between the two (nearly a full wavelength of the planetary-scale waves they're embedded in) that if the system on the 27th is in fact stronger, that'll act to amplify the 50-50 low just offshore of Newfoundland and Labrador and amplify the ridge downstream of our primary shortwave which will still be over the plains as this is occurring, slowing our storm down and giving it an opportunity to dig. If however, they were located within half a wavelength of one another and/or in the same ridge axes or trough base, it would be a different story. As we recently observed in February 2014, the weak overrunning event on the February 11 2014 apparently did little, if anything to slow the progress of our primary storm on the 12th-13th. While the overrunning event on the 27th was more impressive on this Euro run, the parent shortwave was generally weaker which actually may have contributed to a weaker, drier solution later on the 28th-29th
View attachment 2243
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Hey Webb, when will you be back from Cali ?
 
gfs_T2m_us_37.png
This mid week system is setting stage for next weekend into the following.
 
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