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Pattern Jarring January

DixieBlizzard said:
That really surprises me. You are north of Cumming? It's got to be a topography issue there. Do you tend to get more ice there?
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Yes, I am in Northern Forsyth county. I think southern or Cumming itself may only have had 1 or 2 at most this decade. Topography helps us get snow here, as Sawnee mountain is a dividing line a lot of the time it seems. We don't get more ice, it's just we have been too far east to really get the good snows recently as the system tracks seemed more primed for West GA thought the mountains.

Here's an example of how some storms have been. It's painful to look at how close high totals were.
ffc-snow.png
 
GFS dry as a bone for most, until rain comes back next Saturday ! Pathetic
 
The Happy Hour speaketh and says that after the upcoming cold spell, which is now projected to be near a week long, the subsequent warmth is only 1.5 days long around 1/20-1! We're getting closer and closer to January of 2018 possibly challenging January of 2014 for which is coldest. That was the coldest January since 1985 in ATL and was a top 10 percentile cold January since the late 1800s.
 
GaWx said:
The Happy Hour speaketh and says that after the upcoming cold spell, which is now projected to be near a week long, the subsequent warmth is only 1.5 days long around 1/20-1! We're getting closer and closer to January of 2018 possibly challenging January of 2014 for which is coldest. That was the coldest January since 1985 and was a top 10 percentile cold January since the late 1800s.
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:cool:
Kudos.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
I have fared better than you living in N GA and that's not 200-300 miles north, as you know. Between Adairsville and Ellijay, there have been 4 maybe 5 that fit that category in this decade.
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Yes Maybe in single storm amounts as I had missed out on a few big ones until 2016 when I got a foot from one storm. But I have had plenty of 2-4 inch events and tons of 1-2 inch events over the years plus god knows how many dustings. Also 3 of my 5+ inch events came over a 2 year period in 2015 and 2016. Those winters were really good to my area. The other one was in 2010.
 
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Mr. Grinch said:
What is the record cold January at rdu. I can't find it
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I think it is the 26.6 F of the great January of 1977. I see virtually no chance for it to be THAT cold just due to the current short very warm interlude. That kind of cold requires virtually no warm days. But otoh, it could end up challenging to be a top 10 cold January if these colder revisions keep coming.
 
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I'm sure this is banter but like I've said, North Georgia (and I don't mean Atlanta proper but DO mean some of the North Atlanta suburbs) isn't really that bad snow wise. It's not like the north, but I've found you'll usually see a snow event in that part of the state if it's going to be a cold winter (and sometimes even if it's not).

Let's go off of La Fayette, GA again for example. We've recently been on a better run of winters though, which should be kept in mind. Here's their 4"+ snow events going back to the winter of 09/10:

1/29/10
12/25/10
1/10/11
2/12/14
2/25/15

(12/8/17 didn't quite reach that threshold, but it was a nice event, about 2-3" when maybe a dusting was predicted at first, and I'm leaving out 1/28/14 as I'm not sure, not very high QPF but high ratios so it may have been but since I wasn't in this town and was actually in Rome at that moment, I'm not sure.)

What I've found is it's more likely there will be a surprise in North Georgia snow wise. 12/25/10, 1/28/14, and 12/8/17 all were the positive kind of bust there. Each time had fairly low snow accumulation (a dusting or just an inch) predicted and it ended up being more than thought.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm sure this is banter but like I've said, North Georgia (and I don't mean Atlanta proper but DO mean some of the North Atlanta suburbs) isn't really that bad snow wise. It's not like the north, but I've found you'll usually see a snow event in that part of the state if it's going to be a cold winter (and sometimes even if it's not).

Let's go off of La Fayette, GA again for example. We've recently been on a better run of winters though, which should be kept in mind. Here's their 4"+ snow events going back to the winter of 09/10:

1/29/10
12/25/10
1/10/11
2/12/14
2/25/15

(12/8/17 didn't quite reach that threshold, but it was a nice event, about 2-3" when maybe a dusting was predicted at first, and I'm leaving out 1/28/14 as I'm not sure, not very high QPF but high ratios so it may have been but since I wasn't in this town and was actually in Rome at that moment, I'm not sure.)

What I've found is it's more likely there will be a surprise in North Georgia snow wise. 12/25/10, 1/28/14, and 12/8/17 all were the positive kind of bust there. Each time had fairly low snow accumulation (a dusting or just an inch) predicted and it ended up being more than thought.
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The locals always have told me and tell me ... if it's gonna snow in N GA, it'll be Suches first. Then the Richard Russell.

Found that to be a pretty accurate statement on many occasions, hiking through or just car/day camping ...
 
GaWx said:
I think it is the 26.6 F of the great January of 1977. I see virtually no chance for it to be THAT cold just due to the current short very warm interlude. That kind of cold requires virtually no warm
days. But otoh, it could end up challenging to be a top 10 cold January if these colder revisions keep coming.
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Raleigh is sitting at 27 for the month. -13 Below normal. One more warm day to go
 
GaWx said:
I think it is the 26.6 F of the great January of 1977. I see virtually no chance for it to be THAT cold just due to the current short very warm interlude. that kind of cold requires virtually no warm days. But otoh, it could end up challenging to be a top 10 cold January if these colder revisions keep coming.
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Yeah the last 3 days jumped mby from 20.1 to 26.4. Doing the math on the euro we would average out around 35 for the next 10 days so you are right that 1977 record is safe.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
I'm sure this is banter but like I've said, North Georgia (and I don't mean Atlanta proper but DO mean some of the North Atlanta suburbs) isn't really that bad snow wise. It's not like the north, but I've found you'll usually see a snow event in that part of the state if it's going to be a cold winter (and sometimes even if it's not).

Let's go off of La Fayette, GA again for example. We've recently been on a better run of winters though, which should be kept in mind. Here's their 4"+ snow events going back to the winter of 09/10:

1/29/10
12/25/10
1/10/11
2/12/14
2/25/15

(12/8/17 didn't quite reach that threshold, but it was a nice event, about 2-3" when maybe a dusting was predicted at first, and I'm leaving out 1/28/14 as I'm not sure, not very high QPF but high ratios so it may have been but since I wasn't in this town and was actually in Rome at that moment, I'm not sure.)

What I've found is it's more likely there will be a surprise in North Georgia snow wise. 12/25/10, 1/28/14, and 12/8/17 all were the positive kind of bust there. Each time had fairly low snow accumulation (a dusting or just an inch) predicted and it ended up being more than thought.
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We did not get anywhere close to 2-3 inches on 12/8/17 in LaFayette area. Maybe on the generous side it was 1/2 inch with 1 on Lookout but I personally would call it a heavy dusting that melted fast.
 
iRoll said:
We did not get anywhere close to 2-3 inches on 12/8/17 in LaFayette area. Maybe on the generous side it was 1/2 inch with 1 on Lookout but I personally would call it a heavy dusting that melted fast.
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Remember, that storm had a very sharp cutoff. This is not what I'd call a "dusting", it's more like an inch, and this is with snow still in progress. FFC actually has a Villanow, GA report of 3.5", which is in south Walker County. A family member told me that the local news said 2-3" for LaFayette too.

Edit: And I have other photos too that go against this report unless one of my family members wasn't in LaFayette at that time. Where she took a photo and it was near a fence, and a "dusting" of snow doesn't mean there will be about 2, maybe 3 inches of snow on the fence.
 

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ForsythSnow said:
Yes, I am in Northern Forsyth county. I think southern or Cumming itself may only have had 1 or 2 at most this decade. Topography helps us get snow here, as Sawnee mountain is a dividing line a lot of the time it seems. We don't get more ice, it's just we have been too far east to really get the good snows recently as the system tracks seemed more primed for West GA thought the mountains.

Here's an example of how some storms have been. It's painful to look at how close high totals were.
ffc-snow.png
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I would rather forget that storm, but it stays with me like the Falcons Super Bowl collapse and the Georgia collapse the other night. One of the most painful for mby (Carrollton, GA) as we were predicted to get a few inches. Waited for changeover to happen. It finally did, for about 10 minutes, then changed back. A major letdown!
 
k0skinne said:
I would rather forget that storm, but it stays with me like the Falcons Super Bowl collapse and the Georgia collapse the other night. One of the most painful for mby (Carrollton, GA) as we were predicted to get a few inches. Waited for changeover to happen. It finally did, for about 10 minutes, then changed back. A major letdown!
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Yes I was in Carrollton as well and it was such a horrible storm. We had so much cold in February 2015 and nothing to show for it. Worst month ever IMO.
 
Clayton Reid said:
Yeah. It sucks. I always hope that it'll change one day. We need a ice age or something. Living this reality makes weather boring in the winter. Nothing is more interesting to me in winter than snow other than that it's just warmth, sun and thunderstorms. Not really exciting if u ask me.
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I feel your pain, but man you've got it bad. I hear that Buffalo, NY gets a little snow. I visited Jackson Hole in the summer - it was a neat place - and I believe that they get some snow in the winter also. If you are able, just move. Life is too short to be that miserable about it! :) Seriously, it is tough to get excited and be let down over and over. Hang in there!
 
k0skinne said:
I feel your pain, but man you've got it bad. I hear that Buffalo, NY gets a little snow. I visited Jackson Hole in the summer - it was a neat place - and I believe that they get some snow in the winter also. If you are able, just move. Life is too short to be that miserable about it! :) Seriously, it is tough to get excited and be let down over and over. Hang in there!
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But if you lived in a place where it snowed all the time snow wouldn't be as fun !
 
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