It’s not close to the H5 look the nam has .
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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special
- Thread starter TheBatman
- Start date
Jon
Member
42hr chaser is more south and s/w appears a tad stronger
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Flurry
Member
OK....I'll do it...Prepare for Glory!!!
Nam clearly has the earliest phase of all the models . This euro run should still be good for the Carolinas
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I was just about to post that per the crappy maps I have the slp was popping closer to the Fl coast... good trends
ForsythSnow
Moderator
For the coastal regions of course. Maybe Raleigh as well.
Just keep shifting West, that's all i care about right now.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
I'll need to look at other maps I think but it looks like it initialized closer to the coast.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Yep, congrats Larry! I think this storm is likely yours!
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Snowflowxxl
Member
Myrtle Beach is going to be the place to be!!
Not going to fully make it like the NAM has, but there is some very key changes that give the NAM the nod over the GFS....This run is slower with the lead wave, stronger with it and a bit quicker with the chaser, and stronger, The tilt of the phase/axis is much better this run vs the 00z run.. So, I would say this IMHO gives some credence toward the NAM vs the GFS from the 12z run suites
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol good luck w/ that when even just a little warm air advection changes the precipitation over to sleet/ZR
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Actually looks like the Euro pretty much holds it's ground from 00z I think, so it's the long range vs the mesoscale here. The mesoscales look like it's completely on it's own here.
(granted I don't get the good maps until much later)
(granted I don't get the good maps until much later)
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HUGE shift west with SLP...great trends imho. I Think if the NAM continues its trends at 18z....then you have to give it a little bit more credit. EURO is trending toward NAM, not CMC or GFS IMHO
Looks a tick west to me from the precip maps Charlie is providing but just slightly.... Euro was also east with the Dec storm until the 11th hour fwiw
RollTide18
Member
The Euro and GFS (I think) wants to keep this a coastal region only event, while the NAM wants to push it a bit more inland.