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Severe January 12/13 severe threat

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by SD, Jan 9, 2018.

  1. gawxnative

    gawxnative Supporter Member

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    Very Strong wording from FFC in AFD.. Especially with SPC Outlooks make little mention of this.
    By Friday morning /12z/...cold front should be located across
    central or eastern AL...with associated precip oriented along it.
    Very well could see scattered showers develop out ahead of the main
    line across western Georgia beginning a few hrs before sunrise.
    Right now...expecting the line of precip to push into western Ga
    counties by 15z. Given abnormally strong lift...favorable jet
    region aloft...relatively high water vapor mixing ratios...the
    chance for thunderstorms will increase. Given these
    parameters...enough shear exists for storm organization. Severe
    chances for tomorrow will be dependent on instability: thick
    stratus/fog/drizzle could pose a problem for instability...as well
    as pre-frontal showers. But this is also a good chance that such
    strong system dynamics may be able to overcome these issues. If we
    do see instability of at least several hundred J/kg...severe risk
    will be high...and include threats of damaging wind gusts/brief
    tornadoes/heavy rainfall. The system will progress from west to east
    through the day Friday and with potential peaks of sunshine across
    eastern and especially southeast Georgia...beginning to think
    greatest risk of severe weather will exist across this area in the
    afternoon. Although lower level helicity values decrease by this
    time /0-1 helicity <100m^2/s^2/...could still see a threat for brief
    tornadoes but looking more specifically at a wind threat by then.
     
  2. deltadog03

    deltadog03 Meteorologist Member

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    Nam ramped up a bit.
     
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  3. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Site Developer

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    12KM NAM has over 600 (close to 700) j/kg here now. Interesting, ahead of the line.
     
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  4. vtrap90

    vtrap90 Supporter Member

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    I don’t know how accurate this radar scope image is but that looks pretty intense over Alabama. D5947AD9-D8C7-4E46-8179-08CF0444BE1C.png
     
  5. gawxnative

    gawxnative Supporter Member

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    Yep, been seeing that "bow" wrapping up some, and catching getting ready to meet the heavier cells/rain area going into SW / WC GA
     
  6. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Site Developer

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    How did that band end up doing in Alabama?
     
  7. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    Interesting[​IMG]

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
    David Lowery and metwannabe like this.
  8. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Looking rather stout..[​IMG]

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  9. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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    Yeah, incoming for sure.
     
  10. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    If we had a little more instability this line would be rocking. Some of the velocity signatures are sketchy

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  11. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Tornado warning SW or Richmond, VA. This is indeed producing severe.
     

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