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Tropical Invest 99L

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Sep 28, 2017.

  1. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Here we go again. Post away.

    A large area of cloudiness and showers extending from the Cayman
    Islands northward across Cuba to the Florida Straits is associated
    with a broad surface trough interacting with an upper-level low. A
    weak area of low pressure is likely to form from this weather system
    while it moves northward across the Florida Straits to near the east
    coast of the Florida peninsula during the next few days, and
    environmental conditions appear conducive for development before
    upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless
    of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy
    rainfall over portions of central and western Cuba, the Florida
    Keys, the Florida peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas during the
    next several days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
     
    Last edited: Sep 28, 2017
    stormcentral likes this.
  2. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    With or without actual TC or STC genesis, part of this weekend is looking to be very windy along the coast in NE FL, GA, and S SC.with gales likely and the possibility of coastal flooding near high tides. Not what these areas need after Irma.
     
  3. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    From NWS KCHS:
    THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS GIVING THIS LOW PRESSURE A MODERATE
    CHANCE OF DEVELOPING INTO A SUB-TROPICAL OR EVEN TROPICAL CYCLONE.
    HOWEVER, WHETHER THIS SYSTEM DOES SO OR NOT IT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
    STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO
    THE NORTH.
    THUS, WE EXPECT COOLER CONDITIONS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA
    WITH INCREASING NORTHEAST/EAST WINDS.


    From NWS KJAX:
    THE MAIN THING TO KEEP IN MIND, REGARDLESS OF WHAT WE DESIGNATE
    THE POSSIBLE LOW OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND, IS THE IMPACTS WILL BE THE
    SAME IF IT HAS A NAME OR NOT.
    WE ARE CURRENTLY IN A PERIOD OF
    ABOVE NORMAL WATER LEVELS IN OUR ESTUARY SYSTEM, INCLUDING THE ST
    JOHNS RIVER, AND THE PRIMARY ASTRONOMICAL TIDE EACH DAY IS GOING
    TO BE AT OR ABOVE MEAN HIGHER HIGH WATER (MHHW) FOR THE NEXT WEEK
    PEAKING ABOUT OCTOBER 10-12TH ALONG THE OCEAN FRONT. WITH AN
    ONSHORE FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GALE FORCE GUSTS LOOKING FOR
    THE PRIMARY HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
    WELL TO BE AT 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MHHW WITH HIGH SURF ON TOP OF
    THAT. THOSE LEVELS ARE WITHIN MINOR AND VERY CLOSE TO MODERATE
    COASTAL FLOODING DEPENDING UPON THE LOCATION.
     
  4. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    FWIW and LOL ...

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     

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