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Tropical Invest 94L

Henry2326 said:
GFS really likes the shortcut through the passage......this is so strange. Looks like a repeat of one of the model runs a couple of weeks ago.

Looks like it's the wave behind 94L, but outruns it and stays in the timeframe that 94L was running.

NHC doesn't have to change the map. It runs right into 94L's orange circle. That's crazy that the potential is that strong. If the first one fizzles out just wait on the next one.
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Yeah not sure which wave it is. Euro has a 2nd one as well that's making a westward turn but still out by the islands.

At the very least the models suggest we ha e a lot more to watch for.
 
Door is wide open on the euro. Yikes
e07da973a884716b2826ebc525c0eb76.jpg


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Euro at 240hrs. Once again big trough digging into the west, pumping in ridge in the east. This one will very likely trend west on the FV3 and GFS due to their tendency to drop a trough into the east in the long range.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_atl_11.png
 
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next several days
while the low moves westward across the central tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Arcc said:
Yep, easy forecast should things look like that unlike Dorian.
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I know you know this and most every active poster does too. So, this isn’t really aimed at you or anyone in particular:
It almost never ends up being an easy forecast because of atmospheric features that almost always show up at some point that weren’t there on earlier runs that affect strength and/or track. Also, every model has its biases. That’s why as someone who wants no part of these potential monsters I sometimes prefer to be hit dead on many days in advance vs being missed.

If it was easy, I firmly believe that the interest in tracking these wouldn’t be nearly as strong. Think about it this way: let’s imagine the models were always (near) perfect from 2 weeks out with every storm and didn’t vary between each other and from run to run. There’d then be no reason for intense forecasting discussions. The forecasting aspect would become a boring topic as forecasting would be no challenge.
 
The big storms now showing up in the models are clearly not originating from 94L as some have correctly suggested. They are originating from the wave east of 94L. Someone may want to either change the topic title or start a new thread because this may get confusing when we look back at this after the fact. Earlier 94L was leading to some big modeled storms, but not now.
 
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GaWx said:
I know you know this and most every active poster does too. So, this isn’t really aimed at you or anyone in particular:
It almost never ends up being an easy forecast because of atmospheric features that almost always show up at some point that weren’t there on earlier runs that affect strength and/or track. Also, every model has its biases. That’s why as someone who wants no part of these potential monsters I sometimes prefer to be hit dead on many days in advance vs being missed.

If it was easy, I firmly believe that the interest in tracking these wouldn’t be nearly as strong. Think about it this way: let’s imagine the models were always (near) perfect from 2 weeks out with every storm and didn’t vary between each other and from run to run. There’d then be no reason for intense forecasting discussions. The forecasting aspect would become a boring topic as forecasting would be no challenge.
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Its not an easy forecast yet. That said in ten days if the Euro is correct with that upper air pattern, the direction of movement will be an easy forecast. Sure it may run over the islands and not be a monster or the ULL may slow down and shear it out, but with the trough out west pumping the WAR there isnt any direction it can go but west to west-northwest.
 
Arcc said:
Its not an easy forecast yet. That said in ten days if the Euro is correct with that upper air pattern, the direction of movement will be an easy forecast. Sure it may run over the islands and not be a monster or the ULL may slow down and shear it out, but with the trough out west pumping the WAR there isnt any direction it can go but west to west-northwest.
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That may very well end up the case general direction-wise and I wouldn’t bet against that happening (I agree with you on the general idea), but I’m going to be like Phil usually thinks and not bet too heavily on it either as surprises are unpredictable. That’s what makes tracking the tropics so interesting from a forecasting aspect.
 
Arcc said:
Its not an easy forecast yet. That said in ten days if the Euro is correct with that upper air pattern, the direction of movement will be an easy forecast. Sure it may run over the islands and not be a monster or the ULL may slow down and shear it out, but with the trough out west pumping the WAR there isnt any direction it can go but west to west-northwest.
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That's what a lot of people thought about Dorian until the time when upper air data started getting ingested into the models and then suddenly everything changed. Not saying the models arent right but that's a long way out to be saying any pattern is a lock.
 
GaWx said:
The entity leading to the big storms now being modeled is still in western Africa. It will reach the ocean over the next day or so.
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Seems awfully fast to get it to the Bahamas in 10 days on the euro no?
 
GaWx said:
The big storms now showing up in the models are clearly not originating from 94L as some have correctly suggested. They are originating from the wave east of 94L. Someone may want to either change the topic title or start a new thread because this may get confusing when we look back at this after the fact. Earlier 94L was leading to some big modeled storms, but not now.
Click to expand...
I say keep this as 94L and keep track of that in here but the system models are is showing is definitely a wave that hasn't even come off of Africa yet, in fact prob 36-48 hrs away from the Atlantic.... that one should probably be discussed in the general tropics/models discussion thread until such time it's designated as an invest.
 
Not often do these 3 sit with a storm in the same general area, on the same day, 10+ days out. We can just marvel at it this minute, since it will possibly change in a couple of hours. :)
Capturing here for future look back....

ecmwf_mslp_uv850_watl_11.pnggfs_mslp_uv850_watl_40.pnggfs-legacy_mslp_uv850_watl_40.png
 
Shaggy said:
Seems awfully fast to get it to the Bahamas in 10 days on the euro no?
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I just looked at the Euro again to make sure I wasn’t wrong and I’m still convinced it is still over W Africa. First of all, it isn’t to the Bahamas at day 10 but rather just NE of Hispaniola. Secondly, once out into the MDR, it moves rather quickly (like 20-25 mph) for several days due to strong surface highs to the north of it. That may very well keep it weak for quite awhile though that would increase the danger of it getting far west.
 
GaWx said:
I just looked at the Euro again to make sure I wasn’t wrong and I’m still convinced it is still over W Africa. First of all, it isn’t to the Bahamas at day 10 but rather just NE of Hispaniola. Secondly, once out into the MDR, it moves rather quickly (like 20-25 mph) for several days due to strong surface highs to the north of it. That may very well keep it weak for quite awhile though that would increase the danger of it getting far west.
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So we're generally talking a out 2 weeks-ish before getting near the US. I'm going to guess that the upper air patter at that time will look a bit different than it is currently progged, as was alluded to before.
 
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