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Tropical Invest 94L

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Gradual
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while the system moves
westward across the central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Both FV3 and GFS have the storm. FV3 is close to PR by the 16th and is a definite US hit pattern aloft. Unlike Dorian if this is showing, it will not be nearly the guessing game.

ICON does as well.
 
Yeah, good look aloft for a strengthening storm. Brace for round two.

gfs_ir_atl_45.png
 
FV3 is freaking Dorian Redux. ULL out in front providing perfect outflow channels. No escape for FL on this run though.

Giving me chills.
 
To nitpick a bit, I went and looked at the whole run quickly and I believe that fantasy storm is actually future 95L (I'm curious about why that hasn't been designated as a watch area yet). Either way with the kind of pattern shown on the 16th it'd be bad if it were as depicted, but we do still have some complications to sort out in the next week (if whether 95L absorbs 94L or not).
 
At 180hrs, the GFS, FV3 and ICON all agree with the big trough digging into the west which pumps the WAR. If it verifies like that, major problems are coming should this develop as that pattern as we know in winter does not break down quickly.

Unlike Dorian, this one would be a bullet.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
To nitpick a bit, I went and looked at the whole run quickly and I believe that fantasy storm is actually future 95L (I'm curious about why that hasn't been designated as a watch area yet). Either way with the kind of pattern shown on the 16th it'd be bad if it were as depicted, but we do still have some complications to sort out in the next week (if whether 95L absorbs 94L or not).
Click to expand...

yeah I'm not fully sure this is 94L either

but whatever it is I'm having Dorian flashbacks

also the dreaded I name is right around the corner too
 
WATCH OUT BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, GA, SC, NC AND POINTS NORTH FROM THERE. LOOKS LIKE DORIAN 2.0
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PEA_RIDGE said:
View attachment 23292
Click to expand...
It’s all about the timing of that front. If it’s a day or two faster, it’s a safe recurve fish storm, if it’s a day or two slower, which is usually the case, US could be in jeopardy. I just hope it’s weak if it landfalls and brings the SE some much needed rain!
 
Tarheel1 said:
It’s all about the timing of that front. If it’s a day or two faster, it’s a safe recurve fish storm, if it’s a day or two slower, which is usually the case, US could be in jeopardy. I just hope it’s weak if it landfalls and brings the SE some much needed rain!
Click to expand...
I HOPE IF IT IS SLOWER IT AS WELL IS WEAK AND BRINGS THE RAIN,

I LOOKS LIKE A MIAMI AREA LAND FALL AT 944 Mb THEN GETS NORTH AND BRINGS RAIN TO THE WHOLE EAST COAST.

RAIN TOTAL;.png
 
GFS PUTS IT WELL NORTH AT 384 HRS
GFS.png

WHILE THE FV3 STILL HAS IT WAY OUT OF THE BAHAMAS
LEGACY.png
 
Oh boy. This run shoots the gap between PR and the DR.

199e6c9f3262e3d600e9c333d7358ada.jpg



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GFS really likes the shortcut through the passage......this is so strange. Looks like a repeat of one of the model runs a couple of weeks ago.

Looks like it's the wave behind 94L, but outruns it and stays in the timeframe that 94L was running.

NHC doesn't have to change the map. It runs right into 94L's orange circle. That's crazy that the potential is that strong. If the first one fizzles out just wait on the next one.
 
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