I think we may get an invest soon, and maybe a storm out of it later. It's starting point is a bit of a worry, as is its path. 1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for development, and this system could become a tropical depression within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central America during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.