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Tropical Hurricane Nate

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Oct 3, 2017.

  1. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    I think we may get an invest soon, and maybe a storm out of it later. It's starting point is a bit of a worry, as is its path.



    1. Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a broad
    area of low pressure has formed over the southwestern Caribbean
    Sea. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for
    development, and this system could become a tropical depression
    within the next few days while it drifts northwestward to northward
    across the northwestern Caribbean and adjacent land areas and into
    the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. Regardless of development, this
    system will likely produce heavy rains over portions of Central
    America during the next few days.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
     
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  2. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    I'm pulling for this one . The southeast needs the rain
     
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  3. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    12z GEFS is fairly excited
     
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  4. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    This is now invest 90L.

    FL, alone, gets hit about once every five years with a major H in Oct when SON Nino 3.4 is between 0 and -1.1. That's about 3 times the climo rate for all years, combined, and way higher than any other ENSO. ALL FL Oct major Hs have hit with SON Nino 3.4 anomalies between -0.03 and -1.10 and the model consensus prediction is for -0.50.

    -0.03, -0.30, -0.32, -0.39, -0.40, -0.50, -0.66, -0.80, -1.00. and -1.10
     
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  5. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
    FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 27.8N 88.9W

    LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
    VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
    -------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
    1200UTC 08.10.2017 120 28.6N 87.7W 999 30
    0000UTC 09.10.2017 132 30.3N 86.4W 997 33
    1200UTC 09.10.2017 144 32.0N 83.5W 999 32

    Edit: Ooops, this is the 12Z UKMET..
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2017
  6. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    The 12Z Euro track wallops far SE AL, E FL Panhandle, and SW GA with hurricane conditions. Afterward, strong TS conditions central GA to west-central SC and then into NC thereafter. 10/9 would be the big day for the SE US being affected should this track come close to verifying. But it is still kind of early and we know future model tracks will differ.
     
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  7. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    12z ukmet is similar to the 12z Euro fwiw
     
  8. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Based on early maps,.I feel pretty confident that the 12Z EPS will be even more active than the already active 0Z EPS.
     
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  9. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Well this escalated quickly
     
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  10. Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

    Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Member

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    Hope everyone got some good sleep over the weekend lol
     
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  11. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Please update once completed. Thanks
     
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  12. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    If the Euro's path is correct, that won't be a low grade cat 1 in the Gulf, but a very strong major hurricane headed toward the US unless there is tons of shear or at least quite a bit.
     
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  13. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Wind shear does not look to be an issue at least as of now. To me it's pretty clear, the future strength will 100 percent be related to its track over the next 3 days and how much land interaction it has. The further west it tracks the more interaction it will have with the yucatan and the longer it will take to organize . The further east it stays the more time it spends over very warm water.
     
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  14. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Recon added for tomorrow at the last minute
     
  15. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Keeping in mind the low resolution of ensemble members: practically every of the 50 12Z EPS members has a sub 1000 mb TC (implying TS+) at landfall on the US GOM coast and a good number have sub 992, which would mean H in most cases, especialy considering low res. Tracks are centered around the 12Z Euro op with many landfalls between N.O. and Sarasota, FL. 10/7-10.

    As it goes inland, many members wallop parts of S AL and S GA and then on into N GA/SC/NC
     
    Last edited: Oct 3, 2017
  16. Meteorologist1999

    Meteorologist1999 WeathermanTY Member

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    Could anybody post EURO rainfall amounts?? Or The Track up to the Carolinas??
     
  17. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Multiple inches. Too early to worry about details about rainfall.imo.
     
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  18. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Keep track of Ryan Maue's new site. He is slowly building up the site as well as all the Euro maps for all public access.
    http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/ecmwf.php
     
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  19. NorthGaWinter4

    NorthGaWinter4 Member

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    The last one was kind of fun for me. Let's do it again
     
  20. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    If we end up getting inland effects like Irma, I would rather pass. It did nothing as far as the lake and I don't feel like cutting up tree limbs again.
     
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  21. NoSnowJoe

    NoSnowJoe Member

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    Ok people, my wife and I are in Gulf Breeze this weekend visiting the grand babies. Hopefully it will slow down some.
     
  22. NorthGaWinter4

    NorthGaWinter4 Member

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    Perfect for bonfires. We could use the rain and it got me a day off work
     
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  23. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Ok, back to the tropics once more. Im actually pulling for a weak system for rain purpose, but models have it becoming a bit strong.
     
  24. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Per 12Z Euro shear forecast maps (I don't know if we can trust them, however..can we??), shear stays mainly under 10 knots anywhere near the projected track of the center all of the way to the Gulf.
     
  25. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    One thing to watch for this time of year is very dry air sitting just inland as fronts make it farther south.

    As crazy as it may seem, Harvey was the only strengthening major hurricane to hit the GOM(not including FL) in a very very long time.
     
  26. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Got an extra room???

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  27. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    True, but the GFS, Euro, and CMC have a front coming in a day or so after landfall with plenty of moisture in front. I doubt this would strengthen at landfall, but if we get a major hurricane at landfall, it could have tropical storm impacts well inland if it hits that strong.
     
  28. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    I wish nothing but the best for anyone and for all ... and if that dadgum thing has to form, Lord do I hope the models don't start another east trend ... go west, go southwest, heck, go south and go away young man ... :confused:
    though I honestly understand that west and southwest and south defies all logic ... one can still hope that we're done with this year ... :cool:
     
  29. RollTide18

    RollTide18 Member

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    Wow, and to think that I've been reading up on Hurricane Opal the past few days
     
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  30. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    18z GFS right on top of New Orleans

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