Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Sep 23, 2018.
This is the 70/70 area way out there and looks decent. Should gain a name today.
No threat to land but it's a name.
Gone but expected to strengthen? Strange forecast for a final advisory especially when it mentions the chance at reaching hurricane strength.
Yeah hurricane force winds, but loses it's "tropical" status I guess. More than likely once it rebuilds after that strange 180 degree turn towards the US they'll re-issue advisories
Anyone notice how the models keep getting Leslie further and further west? Not going to have impacts I'm sure but even the Euro which just a little over 24hrs ago was heading it straight to Europe has shifted to a few hundred miles E/NE of Bermuda and then here's the crazy ICON from today....
I don’t see direct impact from Leslie but I bet where she tracks will have a significant impact on the SER’s position/duration.
I asked about this very thing over in the October thread...
I’m thinking that because Leslie is forecasted to be a large storm and though even a large TC is steered by ridges and troughs much more than the other way around, I think they independently may be able to influence the ridges and troughs around them to some extent if large and strong enough.
Y'all...last 3 runs of the Euro
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
The 12Z Euro actually threatens Bermuda with Leslie and directly affects them with the weaker left side as it passes only 200 or so miles ENE of them on 10/5 as she recurves and then moves N fwiw.
Certainly does look like the ridge is at it's most prominent and fierce with the last Euro run to my eyes.
And now for something even crazier, 1 of the 51 12Z EPS Leslie members skirts NC 10/7 and then goes up Cheasapeake Bay as a H 10/8!! A different member hits Cape Cod and Maine 10/7! Huge outliers.
That looks familiar.
Huge outliers no doubt but also appears to be more members making to or west of 60W..... just something to keep one eye on to make sure no tropical shenanigans, I mean it's been a crazy year already.
If Leslie can regain the subtropical title, it will be a hurricane as it now has 75 mph winds.
Leslie has an impressive area of TS winds with many 50+kt barbs over a large area. Good thing she's staying away from the US.
It's too early to say that for certain she'll be staying away from the US. Florence was originally forcasted to loop near bermuda and out to sea
Kirk is about to die again and Leslie is back, and now expected to become tropical as it heads SW.
3 out out of 4 models have Leslie recover the same ground and head backwards on their runs. The FV3 goes nuts and takes her near Africa, and moving a tad westward at the end of the run for a possible loop of the Atlantic. What a sight that would be.
Ironically now, the FV3 is the only model that kills Leslie off by the end of the latest runs. GFS heads to Europe, the CMC does some weird dance, and the Euro says "Let's do this again"
It's been a bizarre TC season and per the EPS there are only 12 members (best I can tell) that actually shoot this off to the NE, all others keep it around....... 10 days from now
Still alive and the FV3 may send her to the record books for lasting over a month.