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Tropical Hurricane Leslie

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Sep 23, 2018.

  1. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    This is the 70/70 area way out there and looks decent. Should gain a name today.
     
  2. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    No threat to land but it's a name.
     
  3. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Gone but expected to strengthen? Strange forecast for a final advisory especially when it mentions the chance at reaching hurricane strength.
     
  4. MichaelAndrews

    MichaelAndrews Member

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    Yeah hurricane force winds, but loses it's "tropical" status I guess. More than likely once it rebuilds after that strange 180 degree turn towards the US they'll re-issue advisories
     
  5. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Anyone notice how the models keep getting Leslie further and further west? Not going to have impacts I'm sure but even the Euro which just a little over 24hrs ago was heading it straight to Europe has shifted to a few hundred miles E/NE of Bermuda and then here's the crazy ICON from today....
    [​IMG]
     
  6. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I don’t see direct impact from Leslie but I bet where she tracks will have a significant impact on the SER’s position/duration.
     
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  7. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    I asked about this very thing over in the October thread...
     
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  8. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I’m thinking that because Leslie is forecasted to be a large storm and though even a large TC is steered by ridges and troughs much more than the other way around, I think they independently may be able to influence the ridges and troughs around them to some extent if large and strong enough.
     
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  9. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Y'all...last 3 runs of the Euro[​IMG]

    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
     
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  10. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    The 12Z Euro actually threatens Bermuda with Leslie and directly affects them with the weaker left side as it passes only 200 or so miles ENE of them on 10/5 as she recurves and then moves N fwiw.
     
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  11. GeorgiaGirl

    GeorgiaGirl Member

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    Certainly does look like the ridge is at it's most prominent and fierce with the last Euro run to my eyes.
     
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  12. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    And now for something even crazier, 1 of the 51 12Z EPS Leslie members skirts NC 10/7 and then goes up Cheasapeake Bay as a H 10/8!! A different member hits Cape Cod and Maine 10/7! Huge outliers.
     
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  13. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    That looks familiar.
     
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  14. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Huge outliers no doubt but also appears to be more members making to or west of 60W..... just something to keep one eye on to make sure no tropical shenanigans, I mean it's been a crazy year already.

    [​IMG]
     
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  15. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    If Leslie can regain the subtropical title, it will be a hurricane as it now has 75 mph winds.
     
  16. snowlover91

    snowlover91 Member

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  17. MichaelAndrews

    MichaelAndrews Member

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  18. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Kirk is about to die again and Leslie is back, and now expected to become tropical as it heads SW.
     
  19. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    3 out out of 4 models have Leslie recover the same ground and head backwards on their runs. The FV3 goes nuts and takes her near Africa, and moving a tad westward at the end of the run for a possible loop of the Atlantic. What a sight that would be.
    [​IMG]
     
  20. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Ironically now, the FV3 is the only model that kills Leslie off by the end of the latest runs. GFS heads to Europe, the CMC does some weird dance, and the Euro says "Let's do this again"
     
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  21. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    It's been a bizarre TC season and per the EPS there are only 12 members (best I can tell) that actually shoot this off to the NE, all others keep it around....... 10 days from now
    [​IMG]
     
  22. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Still alive and the FV3 may send her to the record books for lasting over a month.
     
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