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Tropical Hurricane Isaac

Hwrf bombs this too:eek: approaching the Antilles this is a scary track

View attachment 6014
From my experience the HWRF usually over does storms. If its track nudges a bit north, it would take the Isaac through the islands and hopefully keep him weaker. Depending on the position of the ridge by the time he crosses the Caribbean, he may be too weak to turn to the north at that point. Can you imagine if the storm went through the open waters of the Caribbean and then strengthened? It'd be more like to find a weakness in the Atlantic ridge and exploit it, turning to the GOM and the Gulf coast of the US. This far out there are still a lot more unknowns then knowns at that point though.
 
the NHC is forecasting a hurricane for the Antilles, though they do mention possible shear from Florence

both this and Helene are forecast to become a hurricane which with Florence would make 3 hurricanes at once after having zero in August...
 
the NHC is forecasting a hurricane for the Antilles, though they do mention possible shear from Florence

both this and Helene are forecast to become a hurricane which with Florence would make 3 hurricanes at once after having zero in August...

Truly incredible. That's why they don't call this the peak of hurricane season for nothing.
 
Truly incredible. That's why they don't call this the peak of hurricane season for nothing.

just goes to show you how fast things can flip out there... we had 6 weeks of basically nothing(except two subtropical storms in the North Atlantic) and then boom... I was thinking earlier before Florence formed my signature ended with Isaac, we've gone through all 4 names that fast...
 
Ya'll young.. Atlantic subtropics mean business in September folks:
1024px-Atlantic_hurricane_tracks.jpg
 
I just like that map.. even if it's not context appropriate..
 
should be near the Antilles close to where Irma/Maria hit about the time Florence is on her east coast rampage

Tons of uncertainty with does Florence shear it/try to change its track or not

I must stress that all aspects of the forecast are highly uncertain
at this time. The dynamical track model spread is nearly 1000 miles
at day 5, while the intensity guidance spread is nearly 100 kt.
Although the NHC track and intensity forecasts have not been changed
very much, this should not be interpreted as increasing confidence
in the forecast.
 
Isaac in the Bahamas on the 12z GFS next Monday

then because Florence hangs around it basically turns north into its weakness
 
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SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 45.0W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
 
well then

The intensity spread is tremendous by the end of the
forecast period, with multiple models showing Isaac becoming a major
hurricane around day 4 or 5, and others showing outright
dissipation.
 
keep forgetting, there is more than Florence out there.. hopefully this doesn't turn into a repeat of last season, only starting later..
 
CMC has it approaching TX/LA at day 10 as a significant hurricane

Other models kill it from Florence's shear in the Caribbean

Massive uncertainty in its future as the NHC said
 
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SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 48.1W
ABOUT 880 MI...1420 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES
 
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