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Tropical Hurricane Isaac

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, Sep 3, 2018.

  1. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  2. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    12Z CMC still holding onto the idea of a TX/LA landfall.
     
  3. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    I'm curious to see what the other global models show...
    [​IMG]
     
  4. Brent

    Brent Member

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    GFS/Euro not impressed but the CMC is all in

    received_293779434785945.png
     
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  5. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    Icon too

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
  6. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Well the gfs isnt killing it for the first time near Cuba in a week

    gfs_z500_mslp_watl_28 (1).png
     
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  7. Brent

    Brent Member

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    into the Gulf at 204... the Florence weakness went poof and there's ridging everywhere
     
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  8. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    Well this is starting to get interesting. Looks to pass over Cuba and then into the Gulf.
     
  9. Brent

    Brent Member

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    bombs away in the Gulf at 216

    Well that got interesting quick
     
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  10. Brent

    Brent Member

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    East of the cmc but interesting anyway gfs_z500_mslp_us_41 (1).png
     
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  11. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    I don't know of it makes it much longer, the LLC just ran out from under all convection and even if any convection forms it will be almost impossible to stack due to the speed of motion.
     
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  12. Brent

    Brent Member

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    The shear is forecast to continue for the next day or two, and
    gradual weakening is anticipated, in line with the model
    guidance. Given the strong shear, it is possible that Isaac could
    degenerate into a wave near the Lesser Antilles. After that time,
    Isaac could escape the upper-level trough over the central Atlantic
    that has been shearing the cyclone, and find a more conducive
    environment. More of the model guidance is suggesting some
    reintensification of the cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea, with
    the biggest hold-out being the ECMWF. Continuity dictates that the
    forecast not change as much as the guidance, most of which is
    showing a hurricane at long range, so the compromise solution is no
    longer dissipating the cyclone and flat-lining the intensity at
    long range. It almost goes without saying that this is a
    low-confidence intensity forecast.
     
  13. Brent

    Brent Member

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  14. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    I actually think the tropical cyclone could dissipate too. When you have a tropical storm that increase speed, it could dissipate.
     
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  15. Brent

    Brent Member

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    true... but so did Harvey

    Not saying this will do anything long range but just because it dies doesn't mean its dead

    I could see it dying and coming back for sure

    of course now the 18z GFS says nevermind it dies
     
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2018
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  16. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Well, if it does, and it has a decent chance of survival anyways, that beginning of a NW movement, given the time of year, is most disconcerting ... but then, model watching leads to outright lunacy ... LOL ... o_O

    205234_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png
     
  17. vtrap90

    vtrap90 Supporter Member

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    CMC welcomes Isaac into New Orleans and another new storm off the Carolinas.

    Edit. The 00z ICON has them too. Much stronger though.

    [​IMG]
     
  18. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    0Z Euro now has Isaac hour 168 moving WNW through Yucatan Channel. 12Z Euro had no Isaac then.
     
  19. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    I wouldn't go to sleep on this storm especially along the Gulf coast.
     
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  20. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Agreed. At 204 of 0Z Euro in middle of GOM moving NW

    Edit: heading toward LA at 216
     
  21. Brent

    Brent Member

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    I fell asleep lol

    Hello Euro lol
     
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  22. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Lol. Isaac has awoken. Hour 240 barely offshore LA.
     
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  23. Brent

    Brent Member

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  24. StoneMtnWx

    StoneMtnWx Supporter Member

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    Last night's 0z eps for Isaac.
    eps_ISAAC_current.png
     
  25. Arcc

    Arcc Supporter Member

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    FWIW the ICON is sold, has Isaac making a bee line for NO as a major hurricane. Good test for it.
     
  26. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    And the 06z looks like it was headed east of Florida lol


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  27. Brent

    Brent Member

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    ...ISAAC BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT ITS FUTURE IS UNCLEAR...


    About sums it up
     
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