Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, Sep 3, 2018.
12Z CMC still holding onto the idea of a TX/LA landfall.
I'm curious to see what the other global models show...
GFS/Euro not impressed but the CMC is all in
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Well the gfs isnt killing it for the first time near Cuba in a week
into the Gulf at 204... the Florence weakness went poof and there's ridging everywhere
Well this is starting to get interesting. Looks to pass over Cuba and then into the Gulf.
bombs away in the Gulf at 216
Well that got interesting quick
East of the cmc but interesting anyway
I don't know of it makes it much longer, the LLC just ran out from under all convection and even if any convection forms it will be almost impossible to stack due to the speed of motion.
The shear is forecast to continue for the next day or two, and
gradual weakening is anticipated, in line with the model
guidance. Given the strong shear, it is possible that Isaac could
degenerate into a wave near the Lesser Antilles. After that time,
Isaac could escape the upper-level trough over the central Atlantic
that has been shearing the cyclone, and find a more conducive
environment. More of the model guidance is suggesting some
reintensification of the cyclone in the western Caribbean Sea, with
the biggest hold-out being the ECMWF. Continuity dictates that the
forecast not change as much as the guidance, most of which is
showing a hurricane at long range, so the compromise solution is no
longer dissipating the cyclone and flat-lining the intensity at
long range. It almost goes without saying that this is a
low-confidence intensity forecast.
I actually think the tropical cyclone could dissipate too. When you have a tropical storm that increase speed, it could dissipate.
true... but so did Harvey
Not saying this will do anything long range but just because it dies doesn't mean its dead
I could see it dying and coming back for sure
of course now the 18z GFS says nevermind it dies
Well, if it does, and it has a decent chance of survival anyways, that beginning of a NW movement, given the time of year, is most disconcerting ... but then, model watching leads to outright lunacy ... LOL ...
CMC welcomes Isaac into New Orleans and another new storm off the Carolinas.
Edit. The 00z ICON has them too. Much stronger though.
0Z Euro now has Isaac hour 168 moving WNW through Yucatan Channel. 12Z Euro had no Isaac then.
I wouldn't go to sleep on this storm especially along the Gulf coast.
Agreed. At 204 of 0Z Euro in middle of GOM moving NW
Edit: heading toward LA at 216
I fell asleep lol
Hello Euro lol
Lol. Isaac has awoken. Hour 240 barely offshore LA.
Last night's 0z eps for Isaac.
FWIW the ICON is sold, has Isaac making a bee line for NO as a major hurricane. Good test for it.
And the 06z looks like it was headed east of Florida lol
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...ISAAC BECOMES A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN BUT ITS FUTURE IS UNCLEAR...
About sums it up