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Tropical Hurricane Gert

00z EPS that Ryan posted
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No doubt .

The pucker meter lol


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Yeah it's like the bread and milk meter in winter just more serious lol. Eps tracks gonna be interesting still think if it develops it stays ots

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Yeah it's like the bread and milk meter in winter just more serious lol. Eps tracks gonna be interesting still think if it develops it stays ots

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Yeah I agree but a weaker faster system could make more of an east coast run . That was an aggressive run strength wise . But interesting for sure. Wonder when the gfs " upgrade " gets back on board


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Yeah I agree but a weaker faster system could make more of an east coast run . That was an aggressive run strength wise . But interesting for sure. Wonder when the gfs " upgrade " gets back on board


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Totally agree... kinda what I was alluding to earlier.

IF it develops which of these areas becomes dominant and how late does it develop will go a long way in determining just how close to NC it may or may not get

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Yeah I agree but a weaker faster system could make more of an east coast run . That was an aggressive run strength wise . But interesting for sure. Wonder when the gfs " upgrade " gets back on board


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"Upgrade" I needed that laugh

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Looks like this could be a close one. Been going back and forth as far as chances for development.
 
Euro just went... just kidding. Barely even anything at 120. Much further NE too, faster to eject OTS
 
We'll see how it turns out over this weekend. Still, it all depends on the trough. The wave could slow down due to the trough and then slip underneath but the chances of that is small. If the trough moves slower than what is being shown, 99L may have a chance to come much closer to the coasts.


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12z CMC - the wave slows down well off the SE coast as it "waits" for the trough. That's interesting to note. Also, CMC has backed way down on the strength of the wave.
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I refuse to believe there will be a tropical cyclone until the superior model the GFS shows one. Last week it was the model of choice. (sarcasm)


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While nothing is ever set in stone in the tropics, I still feel quite confident that 99L will not have a significant effect on the SE US wx with the slight possibility of an exception for E NC since it sticks out further. Modeling has been about as consistent as it ever gets on this idea over the last few days and it makes sense since the numerous runs continue to show the lack of a high setting up anywhere near the NE US and the one offshore is far enough offshore to very likely allow a safe recurve to its west. Also, the strength is very much in question as many GFS runs have shown next to nothing, regardless.
 
Looks like Euro continues it latest trend of weaker and more NE with development.... IF this develops will most likely be weak and I'm with Larry I'm extremely confident this will not have significant effects on SE US, even eastern NC

edit: and as soon as I type this it tries to pump the Bermuda ridge bumping it NW a tad haha but still probably will be ots. Guess I'll wait for it to finish before I try to project Lol
 
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