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Tropical Hurricane Beryl

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by ForsythSnow, Jul 4, 2018.

  1. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Whatever happened to the other ones, we are now at 95. Looks organized on satellite and at 30/30. Some models develop this into a a tropical storm at least so we may get our B name.
     
  2. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    This already looks like a TD or minimal TS to me per visible loops.
     
  3. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  4. Brent

    Brent Member

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    STWO 50/50
     
  5. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    May well be wrong, and if so, not the 1st or last time, but the 2 orange areas are facing some unfriendly skies down the road; what's perked interest, although a month early, is west Africa ... we'll see ...

    hiatlsat_None_anim-9 (dragged).jpg

    Loop is too big to post, but it's got a real nice swirl coming west ...
     
  6. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Yeah i doubt it makes it across but to even have CV this early is interesting
     
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  7. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure and a
    tropical wave located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the
    Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better organized. A tropical
    depression is likely to form during the next day or two
    while the
    system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph over the
    tropical Atlantic Ocean. By the weekend, however, upper-level winds
    are expected to become less conducive for development when the
    system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
     
  8. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    2 areas off the SE coast and both have 60% chance of development over the next 5 days
     
  9. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Well that escalated quickly
     
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  10. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    It sure did. I bet we have a storm tomorrow.
     
  11. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    I hope they form and give SD the 1-2 punch of rain he needs!
     
  12. Brent

    Brent Member

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    ASCAT Is barely not closed
     
  13. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Maybe (and very perhaps) I'm wrong, but it just does not look real ...
     
  14. Rosie

    Rosie Supporter Member

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    TD Two now.
     
  15. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    I know; I ain't often right ... LOL ... ;)
    Still think it has a tough row to hoe in order to get a name; still thinking 2 named this month ...
     
  16. Rosie

    Rosie Supporter Member

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    Think it is supposed to dissipate:)
     
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  17. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    It is very likely now a TS and maybe a strong one.
     
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  18. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Dadgumit ... :eek:

    Beautiful little thing on radar ...

    tropical_mtsat_4km_ir4_floater.gif

    I think we have Beryl ...

    Good lesson ... do not rely on me to call storms ... o_O
     
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  19. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Yep, just named with 40 mph winds conservatively. I think they're higher. It actually could become a hurricane before it weakens. What a surprise!
     
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  20. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Will this be still another Beryl that isn't retired? Beryl goes back to 1982 and this is the 7th one.
     
  21. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Well okay then

    Already 45 kt on best track 11am peak was 35 kt
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2018
  22. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    It has a eye.
     
  23. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Weird storm. No major model predicted the pressure to get below 1005 mb from what I saw.
     
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  24. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    Also BTW, that storm is Maria out in the W Pacific. Glad that isn't headed our way. ;)
     
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  25. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    It appears this is/will be the strongest Beryl of the 7 so far since 60 knots is the strongest of the prior 6.

    Edited
     
    Last edited: Jul 5, 2018
  26. Brent

    Brent Member

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    Forecasting a hurricane briefly now at 5
     
  27. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    That escalated quickly. Was expected to be barely a TS last advisory. I also can't see how they expect it to go from 60 to dissipated.
     
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  28. Brent

    Brent Member

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    I know small storms can be extreme but i dunno about that extreme :confused:
     
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  29. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    I saw cat 1 hurricane as the forecast at 5 pm update.
     
  30. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    The HMON is the only model that is on the hurricane train right now for Beryl. The HWRF is still only a tropical storm at 18Z so far this run.
     
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