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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Stormlover, Jan 18, 2017.

  1. BHS1975

    BHS1975 Supporter Member

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  2. snowlover91

    snowlover91 Member

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    Why do you suppose the Antarctic ice has been gaining mass and long term averages creeping up at the same time the Arctic has been averaging down? If man-made global warming was truly the cause, wouldn’t you expect both the Arctic and Antarctic to decline at the same time rather than with the current inverse relationship?

    I think the rhetoric is way overdone. Natural disasters have and always will happen. The dust bowl for example happened well before any global warming. Floods have ravaged our country and places all over the world throughout history. Hurricanes were destructive 100 years ago just like they are today. Much climate change rhetoric is exaggerated and meant to target human emotions like fear and promote a sense of panic.

    The article you shared a few days ago indicated temperatures in the mid-Pliocene periods were as much as 19C higher than today and CO2 levels were similar yet somehow humans and animals managed to survive all that and ice levels recovered. Something else to think about, extreme cold can be just as if not more damaging to world economies than warmth. A colder climate shortens growing seasons, can kill crops in areas that normally stay warmer, etc. The Little Ice Age was particularly destructive due to the impact it had on economies and food at the time, wiping out crops and causing great suffering and hardship. People starved, shipping lanes were closed, glaciers destroyed farms and towns, and many other destructive outcomes were seen due to the level of cold experienced in several regions.

    I say all this to say our atmosphere is not static; it operates on cycles lasting decades, centuries and even thousands of years warming and cooling. More than CO2 emissions, I believe a greater danger is the deforestation that goes on worldwide. Reduce the rainforests and amount of trees/plant life and there is much less to absorb the carbon dioxide.
     
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  3. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Yawn, the long term trend is still downward and significantly at that, just like how many were fooled into thinking the global warming pause after 1997-98 was somehow legitimate, the climate system established yet a new warmer equilibrium. Very warm arctic winters and mild summers still result in a net decrease in sea ice.
     
  4. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    It’s actually been well established that the Antarctic increase in sea ice is related to the stronger Antarctic vortex that was in fact spurred mainly by man’s release of CFCs which destroyed copious amounts of ozone, cooling the stratosphere and the circulation anomalies propagated down into the troposphere year after year, Antarctic sea ice really hasn’t changed that much overall and the relatively weaker decrease compared to the arctic is both a function of the vortex’s isolation from extratropical wave breaking and CFCs, it will take several decades or more for this to recover
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2018
  5. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Most of the science to date supports the theory that man is playing a significant role in modern climate changes, but a warmer climate as you mentioned later on actusllt doesn’t favor more El Ninos, if you have studied paleoclimate records and modern record keeping, you’d actually find that the inverse is true, La Niñas are favored with a warmer globe but why? In a general sense where I think most here can understand, the climate warms, the Hadley Cell expands, this results in larger seasonal variability in the ITCZ which favors the monsoon circulations over the Eastern hemisphere and off equatorial convection. The stronger E Hem monsoon skews the ENSO distribution towards La Niñas that also favors more frequent +NAOs/AOs. You should seriously consider studying what happened in the medieval warming period for confirmation of this relationship, because this period of global warming was dominated by La Niñas whereas the Little Ice Age featured more Ninos relatively speaking.
    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00598.1

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2008JCLI2200.1
     
  6. 1300m

    1300m Meteorologist

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    Clearly, southeastern U.S. temperatures are driven solely by emissions and anyone who doesn't accept this law of nature is a scientific fool. Except, there's no correlation. But climate change. And of course the southeastern U.S. is just unique and the rest of the globe complies, so obviously this is just an outlier and should be ignored.

    Southeastern Temps.png

    Source: https://www.globalchange.gov/sites/globalchange/files/Regional_SE_V2.pdf

    P.S. This may have come off harsh. Just to be clear, I hold a fairly unique perspective on this (it seems based on my day-to-day discussions with other meteorologists anyway). I fully acknowledge the climate has been and continues to change. To me, that is like saying the the seasons are changing. What I am more skeptical about than pretty much anyone else I know in the field is of the validity of using the available data to make comparisons about sub-degree scale phenomena, which is not how it was intended to be used (see urban heat island warming, siting of surface observational stations, etc.), along with the confidence in such finite temperature changes and what is causing them, when it is clearly an extremely complex set of dynamics. Furthermore, the correlation between CO2 and temperature response is not even fully understood or agreed upon.
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2018
  7. snowlover91

    snowlover91 Member

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    We have so much to learn about the complexities and relationships in our atmosphere. It's great to have theories, a consensus, etc. but at the same time as you know science is always discovering new facts that change how we understand things. Statements that "most of science" agrees upon something are incredibly vague and overused. There is a lot we have to learn about our climate and there are smart people on both sides who would disagree with each other.

    Solar influence likely plays a key role in the various ways our atmosphere changes over decades and centuries. There is good evidence as cited below that these changes play an important role in cyclical changes of the patterns we see on earth, the complexities of which we barely understand at this time.
    Then this
     
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  8. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    There's also some evidence that volcanic activity tends to increase during a grand minimum and that that possibly is the primary reason for any significant cooling that may have occurred during those periods:

    http://southernwx.com/community/threads/historic-solar-cycle-minimum-coming.105/page-2#post-102659
     
    Last edited: Jul 27, 2018
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  9. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    The first statement isn’t incredibly vague at all, if you search for scholarly articles published in reputable journals you’ll find most of them concur that anthropogenic climate change is real and man plays a significant role in modern climate how significant remains to be seen, the information is out there for you. Problem is we really don’t understand solar and climate relationships at all especially in the troposphere and the direct radiative forcing (UV is more significant but this is applicable mainly for the stratosphere) variability from the sun pales in comparison to the cumulative change we’ve imposed in the last few centuries by releasing GHGs into the atmosphere. What you’ve shown above I don’t disagree with at all in a general sense but you’ve overlooked the fact that these studies did not compare the contribution from solar and anthropogenic sources of climate variability, they only provided links between solar activity and the climate that many scientists who aren’t skeptical of AGW are already well aware of. The patterns are in part cyclical and the earth likely would have warmed anyway coming out of the LIA, but they’ve been appreciably augmented arguably even more so than they would have been “naturally”. The current orbital, solar, and obliquity configuration would suggest we should enter an ice age in a few thousand years however that doesn’t seem anywhere near as likely because dissolution and sequestration of CO2 out of both the mid upper oceans and atmosphere will take no less than several hundred years to be eradicated by a substantial margin
     
    Last edited: Jul 28, 2018
  10. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    "We have so much to learn about the complexities and relationships in our atmosphere."
    Alex Jones

     
  11. Rain Cold

    Rain Cold Target Snow Shields and Fire! Member

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    You’re implying that it’s dumb just because he said it. That’s fine. He’s a dummy. But are you really comfortable going with the opposite?

    “We know everything there is to know about the complexities and relationships in our atmosphere.”

    In reality, we have limited data and limited understanding, both of which will grow with time.
     
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  12. whamby

    whamby politicians discussing climate change Member

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    I love this video... it brings the two camps into a fierce battleground... one, with a pile of data and interpetation to back them, while the other draws blank swords from every possible angle to refute the numbers.
     
  13. BHS1975

    BHS1975 Supporter Member

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  14. Rain Cold

    Rain Cold Target Snow Shields and Fire! Member

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  15. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    I would suggest the body count is already in the millions but this article or thread isn't about abortion.... I'll retreat now.
     
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  16. Snowflowxxl

    Snowflowxxl Member

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  17. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Lol you're suggesting half the world would die which isn't likely from just that. The article seems like a doomsday one and worst possible scenario fear piece written by a nutjob. The icecaps aren't all just going to melt all at once. I just laugh at these articles since its clickbait and says the worst possible outcome.
     
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  18. Avalanche

    Avalanche Member

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    We view the Earth as some place that will always support life. Who's to say its time hasn't come? Are we the generation ushering in its end? Some scientist and politicians that are "in the know" would suggest that our warming is a direct result of climate negligence. You see it all the time, single person driving around in a Tahoe, Expedition, or some other inefficient vehicle and imply the question (why do they need that kind of vehicle?). We can't change nature (yet), all we can do is control our own decision to be good stewards of the Earth and keep it as habitable as long as we can before we destroy it. That's the idea and worldview that is being tossed around.
     
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  19. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I hope like heck (though I’m not predicting it) that the anticipated solar grand minimum will help lead to a nontrivial global temperature drop over the next few decades. If not, we may be in deep doo doo. In the meantime, one positive effect of increased CO2 is that it is conducive to more plant growth/greater food supply. Might the increased greening produce a reverse feedback of cooling?? Any thoughts?
     
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  20. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Larry,
    It is possible in this day and age for someone to find a chart or graph that says whatever the person wants to postulate. Cross-examined that "expert" today. What seems to be partially missing in this whole discussion is history, cycles and forces we still have no understanding of.
    Ergo, I avoid the discussion realizing I know too little to contribute.
    But, this I'll toss this out and can absolutely verify as fact ... it's hot as Hades outside today ... LOL
    Best!
    Phil
     
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  21. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I don’t know who has a better way with words, Tony (@dsaur) or yourself? You two would do well as writers.
    But regarding what you said, yes, indeed. That makes it so hard to decide what to believe. Let’s hope that old sol will have a nontrivial say so in all of this soon.
     
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  22. BHS1975

    BHS1975 Supporter Member

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  23. BHS1975

    BHS1975 Supporter Member

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  24. snowlover91

    snowlover91 Member

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    There is some data out there that indicates increased CO2 levels have led to increased crop yields and plant life, see below.
    Since the polar bears are supposed to go extinct according to the climate fear mongers out there, let's look at some research data recently done on that.
    Tropical activity in the Atlantic has shown a decrease in recent years rather than the gloom and doom predictions of more hurricanes.
    Then there is the infamous "climategate" scandal where it was revealed that scientists writing views opposing or questioning man-made global warming (in favor of natural cycles) were intentionally silenced/not published.
    This author cites the Earth's solar magnetic field as instrumental in influencing global temperatures far more than CO2.
    Another postulates that the ACO plays a big role in climate warming/cooling cycles.
     
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  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Larry,
    Your compliment, if not accolade, is much appreciated, but certainly most wholly undeserved.
    Tony has been for years, and remains, an aspirational goal for yours truly.
    Now, if I could only figure out weather ... ;)
    Best,
    Phil
    ~~~~~~~~~~~~
    P.S., This I comprehend quite well, though ... LOL ...

    sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
     
    Last edited: Aug 8, 2018
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  26. BHS1975

    BHS1975 Supporter Member

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    You always going to have deniers even when the water is neck deep and the the ice caps are collapsing. Some folks just can’t see the forest for the trees.
     
  27. EV_WS

    EV_WS Supporter Member

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    When words like "Stupid" and "Deniers" are used, that's where the conversation tends to shut down. I hope that, especially on this awesome site, this is where the civil discourse doesn't spiral out of control. Thanks ;)
     
  28. Avalanche

    Avalanche Member

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    Well said, and I think there is sufficient reason for someone to say "hold the line" if someone suggests that humans are entirely responsible for a warming Earth, just as much as it is for someone to claim it isn't happening at all. Who's to say that what our current global temps are aren't the optimal temp? How do we know what the global temp SHOULD be? Small sample size is all we have (currently).
     
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  29. 1300m

    1300m Meteorologist

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    I completely agree. That said, I've been called worse than that and I hold two degrees in Atmospheric Science. Going against the herd isn't for the faint of heart.
     
  30. MichaelJ

    MichaelJ Member

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    Yes, when someone thinks they have a simple and only correct answer to a complex problem, name calling is usually their last resort when someone disagrees. I appreciate you willing to stand up for what your science and belief tells you 1300m, there are precious few willing to take the other side when the so called "consensus" (which is not how science is done anyway) tells them they are wrong and start to impugn their motive, intelligence or character. If we stacked up the incorrect predictions of the models and their adherents of the past 20 years to what has actually occurred, it would likely circle the entire earth. What a skeptic really means is a person who is still studying the scientific data against the predictions and trying to keep an open mind on what is causing any observed changes in our environment. Scientists who think they understand the incredible complexity of our atmosphere and how it works are dangerously delusional and should stick to observed verifiable facts instead of model output when making outlandishly incorrect predictions
     
    Last edited: Aug 11, 2018
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