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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

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whamby said:
Maybe it's really 0% and AGW is a hoax or something.. maybe.. who knows... *rolls eyes*
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Since you asked... specifically relating to your paper referenced.

But even a quick scan of the paper reveals that this is not the case. Cook is able to demonstrate only that a relative handful endorse “the view that the Earth is warming up and human emissions of greenhouse gases are the main cause.” Cook calls this “explicit endorsement with quantification” (quantification meaning 50 percent or more). The problem is, only a small percentage of the papers fall into this category; Cook does not say what percentage, but when the study was publicly challenged by economist David Friedman, one observer calculated that only 1.6 percent explicitly stated that man-made greenhouse gases caused at least 50 percent of global warming.

Where did most of the 97 percent come from, then? Cook had created a category called “explicit endorsement without quantification”—that is, papers in which the author, by Cook’s admission, did not say whether 1 percent or 50 percent or 100 percent of the warming was caused by man. He had also created a category called “implicit endorsement,” for papers that imply (but don’t say) that there is some man-made global warming and don’t quantify it. In other words, he created two categories that he labeled as endorsing a view that they most certainly didn’t.

The 97 percent claim is a deliberate misrepresentation designed to intimidate the public—and numerous scientists whose papers were classified by Cook protested:

“Cook survey included 10 of my 122 eligible papers. 5/10 were rated incorrectly. 4/5 were rated as endorse rather than neutral.”

—Dr. Richard Tol

“That is not an accurate representation of my paper . . .”

—Dr. Craig Idso

“Nope . . . it is not an accurate representation.”

—Dr. Nir Shaviv

“Cook et al. (2013) is based on a strawman argument . . .”

—Dr. Nicola Scafetta

Think about how many times you hear that 97 percent or some similar figure thrown around. It’s based on crude manipulation propagated by people whose ideological agenda it serves. It is a license to intimidate.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexepstein/2015/01/06/97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-100-wrong/
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GaWx said:
This is probably a minor point, but does 97% of "man contributing to GW" papers equal 97% of scientists saying man contributes? What about multiple papers from one scientist? What if a handful of scientists on the "man contributing" side wrote numerous papers? Could that be enough to skew the % up much? Maybe it is really only 90% or even 80% of scientists that wrote the 97% of papers.
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You’re on the right track. As I mentioned above, the author that made the 97% claim famous misrepresented the conclusions of many papers/scientists based on the search and classification parameters used.

In other news, I found this recently posted online where someone found an archived 1971 National Geographic ice extent map for the end of summer and then imposed the current sea ice extent on top of it. Not much change really.
upload_2018-8-14_1-7-10.gif

Another interesting data point, the charts always start in 1979 when ice hit a peak. Why would they choose to start all ice extent charts for the Arctic at 1979 instead of other years in the 1970s that showed a much lower or normal range? The 1990 IPCC report noted the decline seen in the early 1970s follow by rapid growth and a peak around 1979, the same timeframe that NSIDC, PIOMAS and other sites use as their starting point.
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_full_report.pdf
upload_2018-8-14_1-10-7.jpeg

Some believed in 1969 that the Arctic had reached a tipping point that would unleash catastrophic changes with an ice-free Arctic in one or two decades. That never transpired with 1979 hitting significantly higher levels merely 10 years later from this concerning low point. Ironically, the language used in this newspaper clipping is similar to the fear mongering you see today.
upload_2018-8-14_1-14-31.png
upload_2018-8-14_1-14-50.png
 
Whenever I hear that the science is settled around something as complex as the atmosphere and climate, it immediately makes me want to walk away from the table and not consider anything else that person has to say, whether they are a "reputable and well-credentialed scientist" or not. That's like big pharma saying, "oh well, it's settled...there will never be a cure for cancer. Now shut up and buy my medicine, dummy."

The common theme I hear from the AGW group is that there is no room to debate anything. If you have any doubts, skepticism, or questions, then you are immediately a denier and any alternative evidence, data, or hypotheses are dismissed out of hand. That attitude does not converge with how a true scientist should view the scientific method and the learning process in general. Science is almost never settled. Sure, you have anti-AGW people who are unwilling to hear the other side. But most of the time, whenever I have even discussed climate change with someone on the AGW side, you get treated with contempt almost immediately.

None of that, however, means that humans aren't playing a role in damaging our environment. I believe we are. We are incredibly messy and care very little about anything that doesn't have an immediate impact on our lives. We generate too much waste, produce too much pollution, and care too little about the land in which we live. However, that can be true without an irreversible catastrophe lying at our doorstep. There is a high likelihood that there is much about the environment and the interconnected relationship between the elements of it that we have yet to understand. It may well be possible that the earth has been so well designed as to mitigate some of these "catastrophic" factors before some critical threshold is crossed. We can't account for or accurately model what we don't know. There is so much we have yet to learn. But one thing, at least, is certain -- an abundance of foolish settled truths litter the landscape of human history. And many more lie ahead.
 
whamby said:
who are some reputable climate change deniers, ones with atmospheric science, climatology, PHDs? Other than Fred Singer, who I'm familiar with...
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Here are some names you can google to get their Curriculum Vitae if you need to see their creds, much too extensive for me to put here:

Dr Richard Lindzen
Dr Roy Spencer
Dr. John Christy
Willie Soon
Dr. Judith Curry
Dr Richard McNider
John Coleman
Dr Ryan Maue
Dr Roger Pielke Sr
Kiminori Itoh
Ivar Giaever
Will Happer
Ian Plimer
Patrick Michaels
Lennart O. Bengtsson
Nir J Shaviv
Bjorn Lomborg
Craig Loehle
Patrick Moore
Garth Paltridge
Denis Rancourt
Phillip Stott
Anastasios Tsoni
Khabibullo Abdusamatov, astrophysicist at Pulkovo Observatory of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Sallie Baliunas, retired astrophysicist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
Timothy Ball, historical climatologist, and retired professor of geography at the University of Winnipeg.
Ian Clark, hydrogeologist, professor, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa.
Vincent Courtillot, geophysicist, member of the French Academy of Sciences
Ole Humlum, professor of geology at the University of Oslo.[89][90]
David Douglass, solid-state physicist, professor, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Rochester.Don Easterbrook, emeritus professor of geology, Western Washington University.
Wibjörn Karlén, professor emeritus of geography and geology at the University of Stockholm.
William Kininmonth, meteorologist, former Australian delegate to World Meteorological Organization Commission for Climatology.
David Legates, associate professor of geography and director of the Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware.
Anthony Lupo, professor of atmospheric science at the University of Missouri
Jennifer Marohasy, an Australian biologist, former director of the Australian Environment Foundation
Tad Murty, oceanographer; adjunct professor, Departments of Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, University of Ottawa.
Tim Patterson, paleoclimatologist and professor of geology at Carleton University in Canada.
Murry Salby, atmospheric scientist, former professor at Macquarie University and University of Colorado.
Nicola Scafetta, research scientist in the physics department at Duke University.
Tom Segalstad, geologist; associate professor at University of Oslo.
Henrik Svensmark, physicist, Danish National Space Center
George H. Taylor, retired director of the Oregon Climate Service at Oregon State Universit
Syun-Ichi Akasofu, retired professor of geophysics and founding director of the International Arctic Research Center of the University of Alaska Fairbanks.
Claude Allègre, French politician; geochemist, emeritus professor at Institute of Geophysics (Paris).
Robert Balling, a professor of geography at Arizona State University.
Pål Brekke, solar astrophycisist, senior advisor Norwegian Space Centre.
Petr Chylek, space and remote sensing sciences researcher, Los Alamos National Laboratory.
David Deming, geology professor at the University of Oklahoma.
Stanley B. Goldenberg a meteorologist with NOAA/AOML's Hurricane Research Division.
Vincent R. Gray, New Zealand physical chemist with expertise in coal ashes.
Keith E. Idso, botanist, former adjunct professor of biology at Maricopa County Community College District and the vice president of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
Kary Mullis, 1993 Nobel laureate in chemistry, inventor of the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method.
Antonino Zichichi, emeritus professor of nuclear physics at the University of Bologna and president of the World Federation of Scientists.

And of course, our very own and estimable 1300m


 
1300m said:
I have two colleagues who share similar feelings to me also (M.S. Meteorology and one B.S. Meteorology and is a NWS employee). I also know that several (at least 2 or 3 that I discussed it with) of the NWS Raleigh meteorologists shared similar or stronger skepticism to the state of the debate than myself when I worked there in 2011. In fact, no degreed meteorologist I personally know believes in the fear mongering or extremism of the AGW alarmists.

My experience has always been that it is the research community (universities) who have the strongest/most extreme feelings on the subject and it's just so hard to understand why that could be. It isn't like their funding is dependent upon convincing folks of the importance of climate change or anything...
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Excellent points by both you and Rain Cold this morning. Well said.
 
1300m said:
I have two colleagues who share similar feelings to me also (M.S. Meteorology and one B.S. Meteorology and is a NWS employee). I also know that several (at least 2 or 3 that I discussed it with) of the NWS Raleigh meteorologists shared similar or stronger skepticism to the state of the debate than myself when I worked there in 2011. In fact, no degreed meteorologist I personally know believes in the fear mongering or extremism of the AGW alarmists.

My experience has always been that it is the research community (universities) who have the strongest/most extreme feelings on the subject and it's just so hard to understand why that could be. It isn't like their funding is dependent upon convincing folks of the importance of climate change or anything...
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I'm curious if you have any studies or journals you've read which postulate alternative explanations for the warming we've read? I would like to read through some additional resources. What are your thoughts as to possible explanations that could explain the recent warm shift we've had?
 
EastAtlwx said:
just so everyone knows he isn't a climate change denier lol..... https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/927203368841379840
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Well I can tell you I have talked with him personally several times and he is what I would refer to as a lukewarmer. Like most of us, he acknowledges that the earth has warmed some in the past 100 years but the amount, causes and percentage applied to CO2 is still in question and he DEFINITELY does not believe in run away Anthropogenic Global Warming nor does he believe we are past or near a tipping point for the planet. Hope that clears it up for you a little
 
MichaelJ said:
Well I can tell you I have talked with him personally several times and he is what I would refer to as a lukewarmer. Like most of us, he acknowledges that the earth has warmed some in the past 100 years but the amount, causes and percentage applied to CO2 is still in question and he DEFINITELY does not believe in run away Anthropogenic Global Warming nor does he believe we are past or near a tipping point for the planet. Hope that clears it up for you a little
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Yeah that's sort of how I think of it as. Yes, earth has warmed and there are some issues with the amount of CO2 and other emissions that are being released, but the climate isn't going to completely fall flat tomorrow like alarmists believe. Solutions to emissions are always being worked on and the introduction of new CO2 reducing technology or methods that produce less always help. I am sure that in the coming decades we can peak our emissions and even decline as more renewable or efficient energy production will become available. I'm also certain that the icecaps will still be intact by then too. There may be less ice, but the ocean won't be 5 feet higher and Florida most definitely will not be submerged like alarmists like to say.
 
MichaelJ said:
Well I can tell you I have talked with him personally several times and he is what I would refer to as a lukewarmer. Like most of us, he acknowledges that the earth has warmed some in the past 100 years but the amount, causes and percentage applied to CO2 is still in question and he DEFINITELY does not believe in run away Anthropogenic Global Warming nor does he believe we are past or near a tipping point for the planet. Hope that clears it up for you a little
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you aren't clearing anything up. You are already stated what i already know about the guy..... you are the one who you put under a list of climate change deniers..... and i simply pointed out this as incorrect. I should of probably been explicit that he was a skeptic that understands the basic physics on how greenhouses gases actually work.... traps heat unbalances earth energy budget which causes the earth to warm. Looking at natural indices we should last i check be cooling but the warming we have been seeing as matched up well with c02 levels and predictions. The way i see it is that the two extremes of the spectrum that being warmist and deniers are wrong and the truth lies somewhere in the middle. The question at this point is how much warming are we going to end up having not that c02 is the driver for the warmth the last 100 years...
 
EastAtlwx said:
you aren't clearing anything up. You are already stated what i already know about the guy..... you are the one who you put under a list of climate change deniers..... and i simply pointed out this as incorrect. I should of probably been explicit that he was a skeptic that understands the basic physics on how greenhouses gases actually work.... traps heat unbalances earth energy budget which causes the earth to warm. Looking at natural indices we should last i check be cooling but the warming we have been seeing as matched up well with c02 levels and predictions. The way i see it is that the two extremes of the spectrum that being warmist and deniers are wrong and the truth lies somewhere in the middle. The question at this point is how much warming are we going to end up having not that c02 is the driver for the warmth the last 100 years...
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Not to bicker too much but I only quoted someone else in using the term denier (which I don't like and think is inaccurate). The Climate is changing (and I think most skeptics acknowledge that) but it has always changed with or without any mankind influences. Could we be adding to it? I think that is possible but not to an extent where we need to change the global economy or standard of living for.
 
Good follow up to the paper that the media and myself included (blaming the coffee) blew out of proportion.

https://theintercept.com/2018/08/14/hothouse-earth-climate-change-neoliberal-economics/

And another interesting one about different hothouse states. The one during the Pliocene would probably be better for civilization in the long term due to warm temperatures near the poles making cities more livable there with little additional heat in the tropics. It’s getting there that would be rough.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hothouse-earth-planet-apos-looked-145310050.html


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Rain Cold said:
Whenever I hear that the science is settled around something as complex as the atmosphere and climate, it immediately makes me want to walk away from the table and not consider anything else that person has to say, whether they are a "reputable and well-credentialed scientist" or not. That's like big pharma saying, "oh well, it's settled...there will never be a cure for cancer. Now shut up and buy my medicine, dummy."

The common theme I hear from the AGW group is that there is no room to debate anything. If you have any doubts, skepticism, or questions, then you are immediately a denier and any alternative evidence, data, or hypotheses are dismissed out of hand. That attitude does not converge with how a true scientist should view the scientific method and the learning process in general. Science is almost never settled. Sure, you have anti-AGW people who are unwilling to hear the other side. But most of the time, whenever I have even discussed climate change with someone on the AGW side, you get treated with contempt almost immediately.

None of that, however, means that humans aren't playing a role in damaging our environment. I believe we are. We are incredibly messy and care very little about anything that doesn't have an immediate impact on our lives. We generate too much waste, produce too much pollution, and care too little about the land in which we live. However, that can be true without an irreversible catastrophe lying at our doorstep. There is a high likelihood that there is much about the environment and the interconnected relationship between the elements of it that we have yet to understand. It may well be possible that the earth has been so well designed as to mitigate some of these "catastrophic" factors before some critical threshold is crossed. We can't account for or accurately model what we don't know. There is so much we have yet to learn. But one thing, at least, is certain -- an abundance of foolish settled truths litter the landscape of human history. And many more lie ahead.
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This is one of the most intelligent posts I've ever seen, I personally lean towards the AGW side but I'm open to hearing other arguments and lately I've seen from very convincing arguments from the anti-AGW side. I think personally regardless of who's right or who's wrong, we should still take steps to lower pollution and waste.
 
It seems like the se has escaped most of the extreme summer heat from AGW so far. I wonder how long it will last.


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Hurricane season looks to be a dud. Waters off of the west African coast are well below normal. For the sake of argument, does this line up with AGW predictions? I thought hurricanes were supposed to get bigger and larger in volume
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Hurricane season looks to be a dud. Waters off of the west African coast are well below normal. For the sake of argument, does this line up with AGW predictions? I thought hurricanes were supposed to get bigger and larger in volume
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Actually it may be the opposite or roughly the same being that we may end up in a permanent El Niño state like in the Pliocene that had co2 lvl like today and was about 2 degrees C warmer. Some studies show that temps in the tropics was about the same as now with intermittent Summer sea ice. Maybe the extreme heatwaves we are seeing is from a transitional period when there is still enough ice left to cause intermittent strong ridges and troughs to form. When the sea ice is gone in the summer the jet stream will be very weak and you would end up with a more even height field in the mid latitudes just like near the equator which would even out extreme temperatures.


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BHS1975 said:
It seems like the se has escaped most of the extreme summer heat from AGW so far. I wonder how long it will last.


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What extreme heat? Within the grand scheme of things, heat waves are pretty normal every summer whether they setup in the West, Central or Eastern US or in other countries. The problem is the news media hypes up any heatwave as “climate change” when in fact they are pretty normal. In fact we’ve seen a decline in max temp averages over the past 100 years with 1936 as the warmest.

upload_2018-8-18_22-0-27.jpeg

Percent of stations over 100F for August 16 is declining as well and has been for over 100 years now...
upload_2018-8-18_22-13-6.png

In the Midwest US, the percent of days reaching 95F or greater has been declining as well.
upload_2018-8-18_22-18-33.png

Record summer highs in the US tied or broken have been steady with a decline recently...
upload_2018-8-18_22-29-7.png
 
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