Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

[ForsythSnow]

Both systems are up to 70% over the next 5 days. I am sure Invest 93L will be formed in the next couple days.

 

[Storm5]

lol 06z Gfs ensembles

00z euro ensembles

Gonna be bust city for one


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[pcbjr]

Both systems are up to 70% over the next 5 days. I am sure Invest 93L will be formed in the next couple days.

ruh row

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol yea as storm5 said, one of these models is gonna suffer a yuuugge bust. I would certainly lean a little more to the euro here just for the fact that the differential in friction between the Yucatan and adjacent southern Gulf of Mexico and curvature vorticity induced by the shape of the Bay of Campeche tends to be more conducive to TCG wrt localizing lower level relative vorticity and convergence, (& this has historically been the case) but we shall see...

 

[Storm5]

12z NAM

takes it well to the NW then takes its w/SW


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[Storm5]

12z Gfs and Gfs para are hell bent with their northern gulf idea. Who folds first??? GFS or Euro


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[accu35]

12z NAM

takes it well to the NW then takes its w/SW


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WOW

 

[Metwannabe]

12z Gfs and Gfs para are hell bent with their northern gulf idea. Who folds first??? GFS or Euro


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Who usually folds first? Seen this before....

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[Storm5]

12z Gfs takes it to the northern gulf stalls it and then slowly drifts it inland

Lol the 12z Cmc

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[Storm5]

Who usually folds first? Seen this before....

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Gfs and Cmc keep trending west each run so I'd bet they keep it up and fold towards the euro . However there are eps members that have a Gfs and Cmc track . Fun to watch . Beats a heat ridge


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[pcbjr]

Gfs and Cmc keep trending west each run so I'd bet they keep it up and fold towards the euro . However there are eps members that have a Gfs and Cmc track . Fun to watch . Beats a heat ridge


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Until something develops it's pure, fun, speculation; if/once something develops and there is a COC and some real data to work with, then let the real model comparisons begin ...

 

[pcbjr]

If anyone wants to do some model comparison from one page, here: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

(This is in Wiki > Tropical > Tropical Models along with a plethora of other resources, BTW)

 

[Metwannabe]

Gfs and Cmc keep trending west each run so I'd bet they keep it up and fold towards the euro . However there are eps members that have a Gfs and Cmc track . Fun to watch . Beats a heat ridge


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Amen

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[pcbjr]

another tropical model comparison site (also in Wiki): https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

 

[pcbjr]

I know it exists but dadgum if I can find it - somewhere the NHC or NOAA or Unisys or someone has a TS track map by month for all years (showing all June storms in this case) ... anyone got the link?

This is the best I can do but is not very readable
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/jun_21_30.png

Trying to figure out how many TS's actually went SW (as some models are suggesting this one might)

 

[pcbjr]

Nice (time sensitive) loop of out two "things", and a static -
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/wv-animated.gif

 

[pcbjr]

Folks,

Webb deserves loud board-wide kudos for starting both the Bret and Cindy threads back when both were just a mirage on some models, and for his insights as each system began to unfold.
Just sayin' ...
Phil

 

[ForsythSnow]

GFS has another storm way out on today's 12z, and it showed up on a model run or two already, but it was yesterday that it did. May not happen, or may be sniffing another one out.

 

[accu35]

GFS has another storm way out on today's 12z, and it showed up on a model run or two already, but it was yesterday that it did. May not happen, or may be sniffing another one out.

Remember Cindy was track from the 300 hundred hr, so anything is possible

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol... Euro spitting out a fantasy TC by ~72-96 HR in the far eastern Atlantic...