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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

GFS-PARA is all in for the CMC and NAVGEM as well... Has been for several runs.
gfsp_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_21.png
 
pcbjr said:
NOOOOOoooooooooo ... :(

but looking at everything, that is indeed a reasonable possibility ... :mad:
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Given that the NAVGEM and CMC have maintained stability in the path, and that I would unfortunately rank the CMC and NAVGEM together higher than the GFS itself, I think it will come Northward between your area and New Orleans for a landfalling system. I think that the Gulf could develop the system into a moderate strength tropical storm at most as of now, if the CMC and NAVGEM are right. Or we could go with the Euro and take a low end tropical storm to Mexico then Texas and avoid this. However, who knows because the Euro seems to know tropical systems, but has fallen short before, while the CMC is crazy. The NAVGEM seemed to get Hermine last year if I remember right and maybe Matthew as well, so I would just watch the area for now.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Given that the NAVGEM and CMC have maintained stability in the path, and that I would unfortunately rank the CMC and NAVGEM together higher than the GFS itself, I think it will come Northward between your area and New Orleans for a landfalling system. I think that the Gulf could develop the system into a moderate strength tropical storm at most as of now, if the CMC and NAVGEM are right. Or we could go with the Euro and take a low end tropical storm to Mexico then Texas and avoid this. However, who knows because the Euro seems to know tropical systems, but has fallen short before, while the CMC is crazy. The NAVGEM seemed to get Hermine last year if I remember right and maybe Matthew as well, so I would just watch the area for now.
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Unfortunately - being June - starting to watch like a hawk ... no way yet, obviously, to tell what that "thing" may do, but looking at upper air/ fronts ... I'm thinking early on --- watch out Tall to Cross City for some rain and a bit of wind ... or not. Looks like a right curve of whatever it is or isn't is, would go into the central to NE Gulf as a very possible posibility. My 2¢'s worth of years of Fla gut until models get a better grip ....
 
Looks as if the 18z gfs pulls the moisture up towards NE Gulf, like its trying to form a low.
 
Obviously development is key to track, CMC has a stronger (still fairly weak) and more consolidated system which is more likely to turn poleward and of course weaker system such as the GFS and the Euro west... Just how far north does any low form if/when it does, so many variables but I've seen the CMC over develop systems over the years. I'd like to know how many hurricanes it actually showed last year b/c if memory serves it was numerous and most didn't occur but hey even a broke clock is right twice a day, never know.
 
metwannabe said:
Obviously development is key to track, CMC has a stronger (still fairly weak) and more consolidated system which is more likely to turn poleward and of course weaker system such as the GFS and the Euro west... Just how far north does any low form if/when it does, so many variables but I've seen the CMC over develop systems over the years. I'd like to know how many hurricanes it actually showed last year b/c if memory serves it was numerous and most didn't occur but hey even a broke clock is right twice a day, never know.
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It was literally like one every run last summer. With that said the Gfs and euro have had runs over the last few days with northern track. Gfs para also has a Cmc like solution . No I'm not giving the Cmc any credit , just discussing


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Storm5 said:
It was literally like one every run last summer. With that said the Gfs and euro have had runs over the last few days with northern track. Gfs para also has a Cmc like solution . No I'm not giving the Cmc any credit , just discussing


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Agreed, speculation is about all we have at the moment, models will, as usual, be all over the place until something actually forms... kudos to the GFS though been hinting at this for over a week now
 
ForsythSnow said:
Never thought I would see the day the GFS caves to the CMC on a tropical system.
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_17.png
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Haha yeah the Cmc was the first to show this solution and now the Gfs and Gfs para show the same solution just not as strong . Will be interesting to see what the euro and eps do. They both want no part of a northern solution


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12z gefs likes the idea of northern track

Oddly enough the Canadian ensembles seem to like central gulf the a hard right


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Trough on the 12z euro misses whatever develops in gulf and it heads west


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