Somewhat more threatening trends at 0Z so far for FL early next week from the potential W Caribbean system: 1. CMC: It isn't that it is such a good model. But its change from 12Z to 0Z confirms my suspicions: Note that at 12Z there was the development near Cuba on 10/5 of a disturbance in advance of the potential W. Caribbean genesis. I was earlier saying that I feel that that earlier development there would likely protect FL from a direct hit early next week from any W. Caribbean genesis. At 12Z, FL was safe. However, at 0Z, there was a much weaker (almost nonexistent) 10/5 Cuban development. What happens? W FL gets hit by a strong TC. Coincidence? I don't think so. 2. GFS: Check out the last four GFS runs for the map effective 12Z on 10/5 (84 hour map on the 0Z), when that Cuban disturbance (the one that I think would protect FL from a potential big hit from the W. Caribbean) develops. Anyone notice the trend of the last 3 GFS runs? It has been forming further ESE each time and also has been trending weaker. The 500 mb weakness associated with it at the time of formation is also trending westward. Notice that the 0Z GFS doesn't even get this into the Gulf as it goes N over FL vs the prior 3 runs getting it well west into it. So, obviously this feature is far from set in stone. What I'm thinking is that this Cuban feature will either trend even more east in future GFS runs and/or it will just stop appearing/be more like recent Euro runs. This is considering the trend and also that the Euro is a better model vs the GFS, which likes to develop too many features. Assuming this happens on future GFS runs, I believe that the W Caribbean development will get strong again on those GFS runs as it then would have no competition for energy.