• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

224bb62da09b60e71c20759f3a57c5a8.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
rb-animated.gif
models may catch on if low slowly develops in the Atlantic
 
Brent said:
20/40 in the 2am TWO and recon tenatively scheduled Monday

Well that escalated quickly :p
Click to expand...
Not saying it will but i have seen surprise pop up storms that have intensify and ramped up very quickly out of no where
 
GFS para has Don and Emily both by mid-week lol... the model support for the eastern wave east of 95L is growing...
 
So much dry air across the eastern Atlantic. Someone with knowledge please tell me this isn't going to last all season .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Well I mean it is July still, climo is still very against development out there, I figure things will flip in August but who knows.

Seen hints on the long range models things will get more active at the end of the month.
 
Storm5 said:
So much dry air across the eastern Atlantic. Someone with knowledge please tell me this isn't going to last all season .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Even though there's a lot of dry air in the eastern Atlantic, it's below-well below climatological normals... IMO, this year is making a statement in this area of the basin in that that the first half of July was dominated exclusively by suppressed MJO pulse passage, the west-central Sahel and eastern Atlantic are still more moist than normal in the low-mid levels, esp near the level of the SAL & AEJ (~ 700mb) and w/ the passage of a very modest CCKW, 2 areas of potential TCG have appeared (yet again?!) in an area of the basin where TCG is usually rare-very rare before early-mid August... Apparently this year has other ideas.
compday.y5EC0c6zZO.gif
 
Here's some hype lol

But webber is right.... its actually not as unfavorable as it usually is in July. Some July's were lucky to even get anything... and the season doesn't really start its peak for another month. I always say the real season is basically August 15-October 15... anything outside that is a bonus...

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/tropical-storm-don-forms-near-lesser-antilles-islands

Don is likely to be the second tropical storm to affect the Lesser Antilles Islands this year. According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricanessite, this would be the first year on record for the islands to see two tropical storms before August 1. There were two other years that came close: in 2005, Hurricane Emily passed though the islands on July 14, and the tropical depression that would become Hurricane Dennis passed through on July 4. In 1933, a tropical depression passed though the islands on July 14, and a tropical storm hit on July 25. It should give no one comfort that these were the two busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record!
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:
Look back and you'll realize today and tomorrow were the days that massive hurricane was showing up for Florida, or NC, or LA, or Mexico on the past truncation GFS. (Go back up to pages 5, 6 and 7 of this thread).
Lesson perhaps:
Take it all with a grain of salt until August ... ;)
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top