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Global Model Runs Discussion

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, Jun 7, 2017.

  1. Arcc

    Arcc

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    I'm pretty excited about dinner. The models have a good consensus on grilled burgers.
     
  2. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Another X? Shouldn't do anything though.
    [​IMG]
     
  3. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter

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    ^ Per the 12Z models, this trough/wave in the Bahamas looks to be move WNW and then NW/NNW in the vicinity of the FL peninsula tomorrow as it rotates clockwise around the Bermuda high. I agree with the NHC very low probability of it ever becoming a TC due to the lack of model support, it not currently looking organized, and it going over land by tomorrow. I also agree that the chance is greater than 0% (maybe 5% at most) meaning it actually has a higher chance to become a TC that affects FL only because 99L's chance is barely above 0%. It is probably worth keeping a eye on it til it reaches FL tomorrow just in case it suddenly does the very unexpected, especially considering the very warm waters in the W. Bahamas. The last 2 Euros actually have a VERY weak surface circulation developing at the last minute before it goes over FL fwiw. So, I'm calling it a VERY small chance it makes it to TD status by tomorrow.
     
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  4. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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  5. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter

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    Thanks for posting that. Looking at the 850 vorticity on the 18Z GFS, one can see it move NW to near Vero Beach and then Melbourne tomorrow afternoon and then turn NNW along the E coast of FL to near Daytona Fri PM followed by a N and then NNE turn just offshore NE FL/GA late Fri-Sat. It then moves NE just offshore SC before going onshore near the SC/NC border Sun AM. That track makes sense since it is rotating around the Bermuda high. This is a similar track to the NAM track you just posted but closer to the coast and actually onshore from Vero to Daytona.
     
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  6. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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  7. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    Lol this is gold [​IMG]


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  8. whatalife

    whatalife Moderator

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    So who failed?


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  9. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Yeah it's pretty sad, i swear he's only been getting worse with time, his weather forecasting capabilities are aging like spoiled milk. On the other hand, yeah the steering pattern wrt looks atrocious for at least the next 10-12 days or so, but thereafter there's definitely a window of opportunity for anticyclones to dominate eastern North America as tropical forcing shifts back into the eastern hemisphere...
     
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  10. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Very informative tweet storm from HM regarding the Atlantic hurricane season

    Screen Shot 2017-08-11 at 3.01.12 PM.png
     
  11. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    EPS once again trying to get enthused about a system in the eastern MDR, probabilities for a tropical depression/tropical storm have increased appreciably over the past 24-36 hours in concert with yet another easterly wave being augmented significantly by the Guinea Highlands. Sounds familiar lol...
    eps_tcprob_20_atlantic_3.png

    O2gFpofThxOmK.jpg
     
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  12. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    This is August headed towards September's segue - something's gonna happen ... :eek:
     
  13. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    There's the fantasy land storm the GFS hasn't had in awhile!
    [​IMG]
     
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  14. Brent

    Brent

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    I'll believe it when I see it :p

    Gets close to the OBX in 2 weeks :rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2017
  15. Brent

    Brent

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    Euro says what hurricanes and has nada on August 22nd... we're getting close to peak time now...
     
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  16. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Looks like all major models have some form of low pressure, though the GFS does the most with it. Certainly something to watch.
     
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  17. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    CMC says all aboard the storm train! :confused: Probably overdone, unless the Euro says sure as well. The GFS has only the middle storm.[​IMG]
     
  18. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter

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    Yeah, likely overdone as the CMC doesn't seem to realize that high shear is unfavorable for genesis. But let's pretend that this is real and further north. Can you imagine if there is a huge evac at the same time as the eclipse trafficwise?
     
  19. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Yeah the CMC is probably overdone but there's no doubt the environment will be getting much more favorable in the MDR for TCG the next week or two as the MJO pushes over Africa and into the Indian Ocean (finally)...

    The EPS is also trying to sniff out multiple threats for TCG in the MDR and really likes the wave near the Cape Verde Islands...
    eps_tcprob_20_atlantic_5.png

    eps_tcprob_34_atlantic_4.png

    And right on cue here comes a decent CCKW into the east-central Atlantic, it just passed by 99L...
    28.gif
     
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  20. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter

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    Webb,
    Can you explain in a little more detail the last model map in the post?
    Thanks!
    Phil
     
  21. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    The last model map overlays upper level (200mb wind vectors) with precipitation and Kelvin filtered Velocity potential @ 200 hPa, in increments of 0.5 sigma (blue = 0.5 sigma, dark blue = -1.0 sigma, light purple = -1.5 sigma, etc & similarly for + Kelvin filtered VP)
     
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  22. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator

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    [​IMG]


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  23. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

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    Gefs like the idea of future development[​IMG]

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  24. accu35

    accu35

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    [​IMG] Hope this doesn't start the west movement, closer this run. Still longe range.
     
  25. Brent

    Brent

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    2am TWO. Assuming TD 8 is Gert this will be Harvey if it forms

    A tropical wave that has just emerged off the west coast of Africa
    is forecast to move westward over the next couple of days and merge
    with a broad area of low pressure located southwest of the Cabo
    Verde Islands. Thereafter, environmental conditions are expected to
    be conducive for gradual development of the system while it moves
    westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the open
    tropical Atlantic Ocean.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
     
  26. Brent

    Brent

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    Euro waits til it gets further west to develop and has a storm(not very strong though) in the SE Bahamas at day 9 moving towards Florida

    At Day 10 its just SE of Miami at 1003 mb on the tropical tidbits maps
     
  27. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Yes it did at 6z. :confused:
     
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  28. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    This is the first time all season I've seen the EPS show below normal MSLP in the main development region after week 1... ecmwf-ens_mslpaNorm_atl_11.png
     
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  29. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Which means a higher chance of TCG if I am reading it correct. It's heating up now, as it usually does.
     
  30. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    More eye opening discussion from HM regarding recent Atlantic TC activity and its relevance and interaction with the background warming climate
    Screen Shot 2017-08-13 at 9.35.44 AM.png
    Screen Shot 2017-08-13 at 9.36.01 AM.png
    Screen Shot 2017-08-13 at 9.36.52 AM.png
     

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