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Observations Global Model Runs Discussion

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, Jun 7, 2017.

  1. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Discuss storms that show up in the models.
     
  2. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] Well this for a start. GFS has been honking at some sort of an storm in gulf past few runs.
     
  3. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] Ok, getting little excited lol. Heres another run from the 6zgfs
     
  4. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Might not be much but its something
     
  5. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    Even though the storm is at hour 384 it looks like pressure dropped even more, moving north over the ArkLaMiss.
     
  6. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    This, of course, might be real. However, the GFS may very well be showing a fake Caribbean/Gulf storm over and over, especially considering how far out it still is in forecast time. The GFS is notorious for showing fake W Caribbean geneses even after having many runs in a row with a forecasted storm without time slippage. I've seen it and documented it before. Don't let the GFS' persistence fool you into thinking this must be real. I'm going with "it may be real but it could easily be another one of its fakes". Climo, especially in oncoming El Niño years (we may or may not be in an oncoming El Niño year), favors this area for genesis in mid June. This is about the only time of the season that has increased genesis potential in association with an oncoming El Niño.
     
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  7. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Also the GFS Para and the CMC are showing a system, though unless the Euro shows something its not too likely to develop. Something to watch as mentioned though.
     
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  8. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Wont post image on 12z gfs but the Low is there. The signs are there ATM with a storm signal some sort. Usually homegrown storms likes to birth right here locally around June/July. As Larry pointed out this could be real or fake. Im just ready for some action.
     
  9. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Hmmm.... D10 I know but maybe onto something or on something. GFS and Euro images below, does look like lowering pressures in the western Caribbean around that time

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
  10. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    I noticed the Euro is showimg lower pressures. If we see a strong low on the Euro in the next few days we could be looking at something, or not.
     
  11. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Just about all the models show something of an storm some sort.
    interesting times ahead.
     
  12. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    so long as whatever stays off shore and makes pretty fish maps to look at!
     
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  13. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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  14. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Just something to watch out for.
     
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  15. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    It's always something ... :confused:
     
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  16. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    [​IMG] 18z gfs says, im really trying here, lol.
     
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  17. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    0z GFS still showing something and the Euro still shows lowering pressures but dang it's still 10 days out
     
  18. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Yep, all models suggesting something as of now, though the GFS's path has changed more towards Mexico for now. If the update for the worse hadn't happened I would be saying one is likely to form, but because it did we can only guess whether or not it will.
     
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  19. NWMSGuy

    NWMSGuy Member

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    Looks like GFS 12Z still advertising a system in the Gulf.
     
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  20. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Fortunately, way past truncation, but nonetheless -- do not like at all ... :mad:

    [​IMG]
     
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  21. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    I think it is a fantasy storm. If it still shows it (which I doubt it) we may have to keep an eye on it.
     
  22. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Lol, its been showing it for about a week now but still stuck in the 300 range.
     
  23. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    I bet it will be gone next run.
     
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  24. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Probably not both GFS and Euro, as well as now 12z gefs show something. Images below from Allan, @raleighwx Twitter

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
     
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  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    And from Ryan Maue (emphasis, I hope, is on "weak") --

    [​IMG]
     
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  26. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    BTW - None of the "traditional" tropical models are biting right now ...
     
  27. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    I been watching these runs for about a week now, I do believe something will form in gulf but not sure about strength wize
     
  28. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Accuweather and few other sites are interested in next weeks potential storm. Something to watch closely around the 19/20th time frame.
     
  29. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    The last two runs of the EPS fwiw favor a low to form somewhere around the Yucatan 6/18-20 and to then move WNW into MX ~6/22 well south of S TX. OTOH, recent GEFS means have been significantly further north with more members than the EPS suggesting a potential threat to the CONUS. The "Crazy Uncle" (CMC) ens mean implies even more uncertainty with even more spread sort of implying that the NE GOM US coast threat is higher vs what the GEFS suggests and way higher than what the EPS suggests.
     
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  30. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Welcome to optical tropical weather ... though, Larry, you need no "welcome"!
    PS - You could swim the bamboo today ... LOL
    Flood Advisory
    Flood Advisory
    National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
    534 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2017
    Alachua FL-
    534 PM EDT SUN JUN 11 2017
    The National Weather Service in Jacksonville has issued a
    * Urban and Small Stream Flood Advisory for Poor Drainage Areas
    for...
    Central Alachua County in northern Florida...
    * Until 700 PM EDT
    * At 534 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain due to
    thunderstorms. This will cause urban and small stream flooding.
    Overflowing poor drainage areas will result in minor flooding in
    the advisory area. Up to one inch of rain has already fallen in
    some locations...with an additional 1 to 2 inches possible.
    * Some locations that will experience flooding include...
    Gainesville and University Of Florida.
    Best!
    Phil
     
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2017
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