• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

SD said:
Eps agrees with the operational with 3 storms in the Atlantic. Other than the one east of PR now the middle system in this image concerns me the most. That weakness in the Atlantic may kick out and it have a long west track
0b3827471eeff150019e7134dd08a4cf.jpg


Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah I saw a few EPS members showing a major hurricane on that one in the middle near or north of Puerto Rico in about 12-14 days time.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah I saw a few EPS members showing a major hurricane on that one in the middle near or north of Puerto Rico in about 12-14 days time.
Click to expand...
I was looking at the cpc analogs a few days ago and they had some years with close NC hits like 95 with felix or direct hits like 2003 isabel and 96 fran. It looks like the 12z gefs backed off of those years minus 95 and added some 2005 days. I hope that the central Atlantic escape route the models are showing verifies but I have concerns. The setup right now as a whole favors subtropical ridging which could easily push something toward the SE coast

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
SD said:
To be honest it's not incredibly shocking to see a big burst of activity. Atlantic sst have warmed and the wave train from Africa is getting highly active.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
To add to your point, most of the Gulf of Mexico is at or above 90 on SST’s
 
Tarheel1 said:
To add to your point, most of the Gulf of Mexico is at or above 90 on SST’s
Click to expand...

Mack,
I know the Gulf is very warm and the warmest part of the Atlantic basin currently. However, the map I saw didn’t have it quite that warm other than perhaps isolated spots near SW FL. I’d say most of it is 85-88 though, which itself is plenty warm enough for potential major trouble.
Have you actually seen a map with 90+ F or 32+ C dominating the Gulf?
 
GaWx said:
Mack,
I know the Gulf is very warm and the warmest part of the Atlantic basin currently. However, the map I saw didn’t have it quite that warm other than perhaps isolated spots near SW FL. I’d say most of it is 85-88 though, which itself is plenty warm enough for potential major trouble.
Have you actually seen a map with 90+ F or 32+ C dominating the Gulf?
Click to expand...
They showed one on TWC and said the whole Gulf was 90 degrees!? I guess I should check my sources!:(:mad:
 
GaWx said:
Mack,
I know the Gulf is very warm and the warmest part of the Atlantic basin currently. However, the map I saw didn’t have it quite that warm other than perhaps isolated spots near SW FL. I’d say most of it is 85-88 though, which itself is plenty warm enough for potential major trouble.
Have you actually seen a map with 90+ F or 32+ C dominating the Gulf?
Click to expand...

TCHP is decent across the GOM although the Caribbean is boiling.

2018239go.jpg
 
Arcc said:
TCHP is decent across the GOM although the Caribbean is boiling.
Click to expand...

The Caribbean is always like that its amazing... and really nothing has tapped it lately, that's how Wilma broke records in 2005

Irma last year didn't even touch the best heat content and look what it did
 
Last edited:
Euro again develops the Gulf storm around the Florida Peninsula Monday/Tuesday and comes off near Tampa

GFS had nothing in the Gulf but a wave

They both agree on quickly developing Florence out by Africa by this weekend though

Euro is a lot weaker and further NE than last night though... 1005 mb near Pensacola at 192
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
It is interesting to see that while the W Caribbean has the warmest TCHP of the Atlantic basin, the Gulf SSTs (mainly 86-88 F) are currently averaging about 2 F warmer than the W Caribbean SSTs (mainly 84-86).
Click to expand...

That’s because the depth of the warmer water is higher in the Caribbean.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BHS1975 said:
That’s because the depth of the warmer water is higher in the Caribbean.
Click to expand...

BHS,
Thanks. I figured that but I still thought that it was interesting. I’m guessing the W Caribbean usually or perhaps almost always is warmer at depth because it is further south and doesn’t get exposed to the cold air intrusions of winter like the GOM does and also has a higher sun angle during all but near the summer solstice, when it becomes near the same. And perhaps the hot US summer as well as mostly untouched GOM allowed surface temps to temporarily warm above that of the W Caribbean.
 
The wave right behind the one in question over the Antilles also is being picked up by the ECMWF around day 9 as it heads towards the SE US coast, development of this feature seems less likely given it'll be sheared by the other storm in the Gulf but who knows, it's early September so anything can happen.

ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_10.png
 
There’s a new tropical storm in the Eastern Pacific that poses a threat to Hawaii.
 
All in for watching the next couple of weeks with possible storms to track. I will have sweaty palms and grey hair by the time 9/15 gets here. That is the day the wife and I head to Panama City Beach for our annual "by ourselves" vacation. Looks like we could have unwanted company in the area. Maybe we can get some troughyness into the SE by then and keep the gulf clear.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top