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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

Brent said:
and now today recon is evacuating Hawaii because well, there's nowhere else to go... :confused:

in Atlantic news there's a circle in the Eastern Atlantic!!!

A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa
by late Thursday, and then move westward at around 15 mph for the
next several days thereafter. Environmental conditions are expected
to gradually become more conducive for some development to occur by
early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Click to expand...
That's the swirl the CMC has been picking up on. Seems to be uncertain as to where it will go but latest run has it just swirling off of Africa and dying out.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's the swirl the CMC has been picking up on. Seems to be uncertain as to where it will go but latest run has it just swirling off of Africa and dying out.
Click to expand...

Dunno if its this one or the next one but the ensembles are liking something further west

Sooner or later something is coming
 
Something surely looks a tad bit ominous in west Africa (but caveat - it's not the 1st time this season we've seen a hefty wave over land, but then again, it is getting later in the season so more likelihood of something spinning up, of course); and the models are showing an increased chance of precip coming off the coast ... ergo, something to watch ... as well as shear not being too hostile on the front end ... we'll see ...

hiatlsat_None_anim.gif gth_full.png wg8shr.GIF
 
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^^^
...
as well as shear tendency not being too hostile either, together with current steering being a bit conducive; it's interesting looking at all of those in tandem ... we'll see ...

wg8sht.GIF


wg8dlm5-1.GIF

So bottom line (IMHO) ... if (if, if) that wave gets off the coast and holds together (unlike the prior ones), it's at least heading into a reasonably good environment, as that environment exists today and looks to for at least a couple more ...
 
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1zbb1fk.jpg
 
Lane has already brought over a foot of rain to Hawaii causing road closures due to landslides and this is only going to get worse. The track is still crazy uncertain (06z GFS slams it right into the big Island)

Current conditions at the Mauna Kea summit, 38 degrees with 40 mph winds....
 
again the Euro has been a total joke with Lane. GFS has always been the far worse track for Hawaii and its ringing true after the 12z. Now the Euro almost landfalls in Maui before turning west after being way west even last night.
 
CPHC still isn't close to a landfall on the new advisory, heads for Maui then sharp turns away from Oahu(Honolulu) and Kauai
 
Brent said:
CPHC still isn't close to a landfall on the new advisory, heads for Maui then sharp turns away from Oahu(Honolulu) and Kauai
Click to expand...
The current radar seems to be showing Lane moving NW to NNW, I think we can say an actual landfall on any island of Hawaii, is basically 0!
 
Except some models pull it NE into Maui(probably mountain interaction) and they are the stronger models before turning west but who knows

Basically the longer it takes to fall apart the closer to Hawaii landfall it gets

This remains a rather low confidence and challenging forecast due
to changes in the steering flow and intensity of Lane with time.
The tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the northwest, to the
southwest of a mid-level ridge located several hundred miles to the
east of Hawaii. The ridge is still expected to build clockwise
around the cyclone, imparting a more northward motion today that is
expected to continue for the next 24 hours or so. This will bring
the hurricane perilously close to the main Hawaiian Islands. As
Lane approaches, strong shear and possibly some terrain interaction
is expected to begin destroying the core of the tropical cyclone. At
this point, Lane will weaken more rapidly and take a turn toward the
west as the low level circulation decouples. When exactly this will
occur is the million dollar question. The consensus guidance and the
12z ECMWF run shifted a bit closer to the main Hawaiian Islands, and
the forecast track has been adjusted to better agree with the
consensus. I have adjusted the intensity forecast upward a bit to be
in better agreement with the ECMWF.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Lane, and be prepared for adjustments to the forecast.
Although the official forecast does not explicitly indicate Lane's
center making landfall over any of the islands, this remains a very
real possibility. Even if the center of Lane remains offshore,
severe impacts could still be realized as they extend well away from
the center.

izante.jpg
 
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CMC has a storm into South Florida in 9 days from the African wave... Euro shows some energy in the same area at the same time but not as impressed. GFS has something forming near Florida even further out than that.

0z Euro at 240 hours, if that upper air pattern verifies anything that forms would head for Florida, has a lot of energy approaching from the African wave
 
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Today’s 12Z Euro is like the 5th run in a row to have a surface low to form in the far E MDR near 9/1. The EPS has also been showing this with about 20% of the 51 members for several days of runs having an actual TC genesis shortly after. Something to monitor but hoping any formation would later safely recurve, which is the climo most likely thing especially in El Niño or pre-El Niño seasons. Also, there’d be hope it would later dissipate over open waters if it doesn’t recurve safely.
The 12Z EPS has only modest support for this with only about 7 of the 51 members having a TC and 2 or so becoming a H.
 
Wow Lane is dying in a hurry near Hawaii

Hard pressed to call it a hurricane actually its hard to find a center at all
 
Brent said:
Wow Lane is dying in a hurry near Hawaii

Hard pressed to call it a hurricane actually its hard to find a center at all
Click to expand...
Yeah, just a blob of convection, and week at that. Rain seem to still be the big issue, with a lot of places getting 5-10” more between now and Sunday
 
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