Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, May 1, 2018.
Not even funny
I know it is expected to get very hot there but 107 in Providence?!?! Their alltime record is “only” 104, which was on 8/2/1975. This has to be a result of the gfs doing its tricks with its extra hot pockets in cities.
Euro has not surprisingly dropped the tropical thing
If only summer would be dropped
The 12Z Euro (and the CMC/GFS to some extent) has a westward moving disturbed area underneath a 594+ mb NE-Midwest US 500 mb high in the form of a very weak sfc low/upper low. Before that, the run has a piece of energy/moisture break off from the front off the NE US near 65W that first moves south over the weekend to near 30N. Then it turns westward on Monday as the upper high strengthens to the N and NW and goes all the way up to 200 mb thus keeping shear only light to moderate/changes steering to westward. The weak disturbance then moves into the SE US on Wednesday. Though unlikely as of now, this will be interesting to watch to see if it tries to transition into a TC before reaching the coast (if it does) on Wednesday.
This energy appears to currently be near where the early week Euros erroneously had that TC form off NC and mainly move NE to the current position. So, maybe it is related.
Yellow and Yellow ...
2/0/0 ... July
... but not these ...
Yellow X is gone from the Gulf and the Atlantic X is 10%; IMHO, nothing until later this month ... then a couple of premature names ... dynamics are not aligned (yet) ...
... and fingers crossed they do not get aligned this year ... ... though it goes without saying, we've got a good 3 1/2 months to go ...
I think it’s up to 30% the next 3 days now!?
Yup ... 70% Nada, though; and sticking with nothing until later in the month, and then still, not much ...
That wave off Africa sure looks good(is 95L now not sure what happened to 92, 93, and 94L?)
Hostile road ahead though
Think something may be coming off of Africa? Worth watching (last frame) ...
Very slow tropical weather right now. Nothing in the foreseeable future at the moment. Probably will be until August when things pick up all at once.
Me likes ...
Yeah it's quite dead out there and looks to remain that way until mid August. If we can make it through until past the peak then I'm sure we will have the least active season in decades.
I'm giving it about 3 weeks, still think we'll have something towards late August and Labor Day(although I'm not expecting anything on the scale of last year)
Main story this coming week looks to be the possibility of Hector in the EPAC getting close to Hawaii next week.
It could all be fantasyland, but the GFS has some activity out near Africa at the end of the run, and I doubt our luck at having only 4 storms, 2 hurricanes and 2 subtropical ones, will stand. Probably going to get more active later this month.
Praying that activity continues to fall apart coming off of Africa ...
We might see a little but of an uptick in around day 10-15 as a cckw passes over the Atlantic. Not entirely enthusiastic about a lot right now other than maybe another subtropical system
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Nothing to suggest anything worrisome, yet, in any event ...
GFS starting to look interesting in the LR out towards Africa
It's pretty much if its gonna start it'll be in the next couple weeks
we are getting close to when Harvey formed a year ago
Maybe it isn't the Atlantic, but the Pacific has been really active and Hawaii could be looking at a hit by Lane unless it goes further south like Hector did a week ago.