1. Hello guests. Please take a minute to sign up and join in the conversation. It's free, quick, and easy!

Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, May 1, 2018.

  1. accu35

    accu35 Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    3,150
    Likes Received:
    1,207
    Not even funny
     
  2. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,791
    Likes Received:
    4,533
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    I know it is expected to get very hot there but 107 in Providence?!?! Their alltime record is “only” 104, which was on 8/2/1975. This has to be a result of the gfs doing its tricks with its extra hot pockets in cities.
     
    Brent, accu35 and pcbjr like this.
  3. Brent

    Brent Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2016
    Messages:
    2,257
    Likes Received:
    1,728
    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    Euro has not surprisingly dropped the tropical thing

    If only summer would be dropped :p
     
    deltadog03, DarkKnight and accu35 like this.
  4. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    2,791
    Likes Received:
    4,533
    Location:
    SAV, GA
    The 12Z Euro (and the CMC/GFS to some extent) has a westward moving disturbed area underneath a 594+ mb NE-Midwest US 500 mb high in the form of a very weak sfc low/upper low. Before that, the run has a piece of energy/moisture break off from the front off the NE US near 65W that first moves south over the weekend to near 30N. Then it turns westward on Monday as the upper high strengthens to the N and NW and goes all the way up to 200 mb thus keeping shear only light to moderate/changes steering to westward. The weak disturbance then moves into the SE US on Wednesday. Though unlikely as of now, this will be interesting to watch to see if it tries to transition into a TC before reaching the coast (if it does) on Wednesday.

    This energy appears to currently be near where the early week Euros erroneously had that TC form off NC and mainly move NE to the current position. So, maybe it is related.
     
  5. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,812
    Likes Received:
    5,273
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Yellow and Yellow ...
    2/0/0 ... July
    ... but not these ...

    two_atl_5d0.png
     
  6. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,812
    Likes Received:
    5,273
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Yellow X is gone from the Gulf and the Atlantic X is 10%; IMHO, nothing until later this month ... then a couple of premature names ... dynamics are not aligned (yet) ... :)

    two_atl_2d0.png

    ... and fingers crossed they do not get aligned this year ... :cool: ... though it goes without saying, we've got a good 3 1/2 months to go ... :rolleyes:
     
    Last edited: Jul 3, 2018
  7. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2016
    Messages:
    3,383
    Likes Received:
    1,931
    Location:
    Greenville,SC
    I think it’s up to 30% the next 3 days now!?
     
    pcbjr likes this.
  8. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,812
    Likes Received:
    5,273
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Yup ... 70% Nada, though; and sticking with nothing until later in the month, and then still, not much ...
     
  9. Brent

    Brent Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2016
    Messages:
    2,257
    Likes Received:
    1,728
    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    That wave off Africa sure looks good(is 95L now not sure what happened to 92, 93, and 94L?)

    Hostile road ahead though
     
    jswhit3 likes this.
  10. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,812
    Likes Received:
    5,273
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Think something may be coming off of Africa? Worth watching (last frame) ...


    hiatlsat_None_anim.gif
     
    Snowflowxxl likes this.
  11. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    3,964
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    Very slow tropical weather right now. Nothing in the foreseeable future at the moment. Probably will be until August when things pick up all at once.
     
    pcbjr likes this.
  12. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,812
    Likes Received:
    5,273
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Me likes ...

    gth_full.png
     
  13. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    3,964
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    Yeah it's quite dead out there and looks to remain that way until mid August. If we can make it through until past the peak then I'm sure we will have the least active season in decades.
     
    Brent and pcbjr like this.
  14. Brent

    Brent Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2016
    Messages:
    2,257
    Likes Received:
    1,728
    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    I'm giving it about 3 weeks, still think we'll have something towards late August and Labor Day(although I'm not expecting anything on the scale of last year)

    Main story this coming week looks to be the possibility of Hector in the EPAC getting close to Hawaii next week.
     
  15. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    3,964
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    It could all be fantasyland, but the GFS has some activity out near Africa at the end of the run, and I doubt our luck at having only 4 storms, 2 hurricanes and 2 subtropical ones, will stand. Probably going to get more active later this month.
     
  16. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,812
    Likes Received:
    5,273
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Praying that activity continues to fall apart coming off of Africa ...

    hiatlsat_None_anim.gif
     
    accu35 likes this.
  17. SD

    SD Staff Member Administrator

    Joined:
    Jan 4, 2017
    Messages:
    4,540
    Likes Received:
    4,622
    Location:
    Chalybeate Springs, NC
    We might see a little but of an uptick in around day 10-15 as a cckw passes over the Atlantic. Not entirely enthusiastic about a lot right now other than maybe another subtropical system

    Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
     
    pcbjr likes this.
  18. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

    Joined:
    Dec 10, 2016
    Messages:
    5,812
    Likes Received:
    5,273
    Location:
    Gainesville, FL
    Nothing to suggest anything worrisome, yet, in any event ...

    wg8dlm5-1.GIF

    wg8shr.GIF

    wg8vor.GIF

    hiatlsat_None_anim.gif

    irmet7kml.GIF
     
    Last edited: Aug 13, 2018
  19. Brent

    Brent Member

    Joined:
    Dec 9, 2016
    Messages:
    2,257
    Likes Received:
    1,728
    Location:
    Dallas Texas
    GFS starting to look interesting in the LR out towards Africa

    It's pretty much if its gonna start it'll be in the next couple weeks

    we are getting close to when Harvey formed a year ago
     
    accu35 likes this.
  20. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2017
    Messages:
    4,499
    Likes Received:
    3,964
    Location:
    North Forsyth County, Georgia
    Maybe it isn't the Atlantic, but the Pacific has been really active and Hawaii could be looking at a hit by Lane unless it goes further south like Hector did a week ago.
    [​IMG]
     

Share This Page