pcbjr
Member
FWIW ...
-
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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017
- Thread starter Snowfan
- Start date
12z eps
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
The way he worded it makes it sound like it is one run, when in reality it has been like that for 4 days in a row for almost all runs.FWIW ...
I bet those have been coming North the last few days. Have to keep watching them. If they go for the East Gulf I would laugh because the Canadian would then be right.12z eps
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pcbjr
Member
Some folks, me thinks, would leave Santa Clause sour milk and stale cookies, and then complain about what was left underneath the tree ...
pcbjr
Member
A bit more "info" from Central Fla Hurricane (a link you can find in Wiki, BTW):
FFC mentioned the area in the Western Caribbean.
Typical variability, especially for this time of year, seen
throughout the long term. Given weak high pressure across the area
with a bit more volatility aloft, we will likely see some scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Current thinking is a bit more
activity across the north as a front approaches with better trough
inflection by late afternoon/evening. Would not be surprised to
see some initiation toward the southeast as well with any
sea breeze convergence (if it is able to get far enough inland).
We will see the probability of precipitation increase by later in
the evening into the overnight as the dynamics improve. This trend
will continue into Monday with better coverage anticipated as the
trough aloft edges further toward the east coast with the surface
boundary nearing.
While most models are illustrating a front approaching during the
beginning of the work week, they are all showing different solutions
in terms of duration. ECM is trying to sweep the front through
fairly quickly Tuesday into Tuesday night, while the GFS is a bit
slower of a solution...not quite swinging it through until Wednesday
before eventually washing out to the south. Given the GFS timing,
duration and upper level flow pattern, it is picking up a
tropical wave in the Gulf Coast region and lifting it north by
mid week. This would mean adequate advection of moisture across
portions of the southeast. The GEM is also showing a similar
solution. Meanwhile, the ECM has the wave approaching TX. This is
an area to watch with a good amount of uncertainty this far out.
Typical variability, especially for this time of year, seen
throughout the long term. Given weak high pressure across the area
with a bit more volatility aloft, we will likely see some scattered
showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Current thinking is a bit more
activity across the north as a front approaches with better trough
inflection by late afternoon/evening. Would not be surprised to
see some initiation toward the southeast as well with any
sea breeze convergence (if it is able to get far enough inland).
We will see the probability of precipitation increase by later in
the evening into the overnight as the dynamics improve. This trend
will continue into Monday with better coverage anticipated as the
trough aloft edges further toward the east coast with the surface
boundary nearing.
While most models are illustrating a front approaching during the
beginning of the work week, they are all showing different solutions
in terms of duration. ECM is trying to sweep the front through
fairly quickly Tuesday into Tuesday night, while the GFS is a bit
slower of a solution...not quite swinging it through until Wednesday
before eventually washing out to the south. Given the GFS timing,
duration and upper level flow pattern, it is picking up a
tropical wave in the Gulf Coast region and lifting it north by
mid week. This would mean adequate advection of moisture across
portions of the southeast. The GEM is also showing a similar
solution. Meanwhile, the ECM has the wave approaching TX. This is
an area to watch with a good amount of uncertainty this far out.
Fwiw which isn't much here is the 18z NAM with the gulf system taking it NW . You can see the approaching front how the two interact is anyone's guess at this point
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ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lol beat me to it. However, here is a wind map. Most definitely it could be anyone's guess. The NAVGEM has been a bit more westward lately, so maybe realistically it could go west?Fwiw which isn't much here is the 18z NAM with the gulf system taking it NW . You can see the approaching front how the two interact is anyone's guess at this point
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Lol beat me to it. However, here is a wind map. Most definitely it could be anyone's guess. The NAVGEM has been a bit more westward lately, so maybe realistically it could go west?
Yeah it definitely looked to be headed towards a euro solution that run BUt it's the NAM and the NAM and tropical systems don't go together .
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18z Gfs and para Gfs are still night and day different from the euro and eps. Something has to give . Also for those wanting rain in the southeast from this IF its the northern track we are gonna need the front to slow way down or it's gonna be a hard hook to the right
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pcbjr
Member
if it gets a name ... slow down - this pour soul doesn't need a hard hook to the right this year ...
pcbjr
Member
and more FWIW ...
pcbjr
Member
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite images indicate that an area of disturbed weather
associated with a tropical wave is located about 1800 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands. This disturbance has become
better organized today, and additional development is possible
during the next day or two before conditions become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to continue
moving toward the west at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. Surface pressures are falling in the western Caribbean Sea and
the areal coverage of the disturbed weather has continued to
increase. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the south central Gulf of
Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
Peninsula and western Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Avila
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Fri Jun 16 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Satellite images indicate that an area of disturbed weather
associated with a tropical wave is located about 1800 miles east of
the southern Windward Islands. This disturbance has become
better organized today, and additional development is possible
during the next day or two before conditions become less favorable
for tropical cyclone formation. This system is expected to continue
moving toward the west at 15-20 mph over the tropical Atlantic
during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
2. Surface pressures are falling in the western Caribbean Sea and
the areal coverage of the disturbed weather has continued to
increase. Conditions appear to be favorable for gradual development
of this system while it moves slowly northwestward across the
Yucatan Peninsula this weekend and into the south central Gulf of
Mexico early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are
likely to spread over portions of Central America, the Yucatan
Peninsula and western Cuba during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Forecaster Avila
18z GEFS
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pcbjr
Member
Random musings ---
00z NAM takes the " system " further north this run. Of course using the NAM for tropical guidance is like using the JMA for winter weather forecasting .
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00z Gfs brings it north and lets it drift along the northern gulf coast
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00z Cmc is further NW vs previous runs. Brings lots of rain to the southeast
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lol it's the euro vs everything else
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