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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

ForsythSnow said:
I'm not. I hope we have a non-existent severe season. Haven't had major lines that do major damage in a long time and I'd like to keep it that way for some time. As far as hurricane season, how about you help write the wiki articles and keep them up to date, especially when we have multiple storms at once. Trying to track all of them and update them last year was a pain and still isn't complete. :confused:
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Having lived in Dahlonega for a year I have to say your area is in a good area if you dont like severe weather. The wedge often protects areas north and northeast of Atl.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Having lived in Dahlonega for a year I have to say your area is in a good area if you dont like severe weather. The wedge often protects areas north and northeast of Atl.
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That's been the case for years here, but it's repeats of 2011 and and 2008 that I don't want to see again. Too many close calls with tornadoes.
 
ForsythSnow said:
That's been the case for years here, but it's repeats of 2011 and and 2008 that I don't want to see again. Too many close calls with tornadoes.
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i been a huge severe weather fan since 11 years old...intrigued by the super 74 outbreak april...been amateur chasing since early 80s ... were surely over due for active season... hoping no one gets hit... but midsouth way over due for large scale event... i be posting more as spring draws closer....
 
GaWx said:
The MJO ended up having a whopping 3.83 peak in phase 7, which was on 2/1. (It actually peaked at 3.90 in phase 6.) When I was first following this closely, the EPS had a phase 7 peak prediction of 2.5 vs the GEFS' 4.2. MDA mets and I predicted EPS would verify more closely on the idea that it usually does better than GEFS and that GEFS so often overamps. Webber, however, predicted GEFS would do better based on initializations in Maritime Continent actually favoring GEFS, which I hadn't at the time realized. Webber and GEFS clearly killed it. Congrats! This was a learning process for myself and hopefully also MDA. Consider the current MJO phase before predicting which of EPS and GEFS will do better. Don't just automatically go with EPS just based on the idea that it generally has done better than GEFS.
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Pretty good prediction considering the GEFS has stunk it up bigly as a whole for Jan MJO forecasts.
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1300m said:
It's unanimous that through 2/15 the pattern will remain unfavorable for any significant bouts of cold or wintry weather. Even if the MJO does move through Phase 8 around that time, it'll take another 5 to 7 days for the pattern to evolve. The window is closing. There could still be a small window of time for a good pattern to emerge beyond 2/20 into early March, and we could still pull something out even without a perfect pattern, but slowly but surely time is becoming our enemy.

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I agree . We clearly are not gonna see the Fab Feb that we thought we were going to see. Either way there should be one more chance for the upper south with proper timing.

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The end of winter is shaping up to be a disaster if you want cold and snow. I was hopeful last week that we’d see the modeling correct colder in the lr, but the progs keep looking worse and worse. MJO Phase 8 is for the birds. We’ve been had!
 
Rain Cold said:
The end of winter is shaping up to be a disaster if you want cold and snow. I was hopeful last week that we’d see the modeling correct colder in the lr, but the progs keep looking worse and worse. MJO Phase 8 is for the birds. We’ve been had!
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I will gladly trade locations with you. Nothing but cold and snow here the next week. I'm ready for spring.
 
Storm5 said:
I agree . We clearly are not gonna see the Fab Feb that we thought we were going to see. Either way there should be one more chance for the upper south with proper timing.

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I said it. Feburnuary has arrived. Maybe there is another chance for us in the upper south, as it has been a bit since there has been a late February to early March snow.
 
Models are trending colder, the deep south winter may be over. But parts of the mid and upper south still have plenty of time. I think some are lumping the entire south with winter cancel and it's silly. Arkansas,north miss,ala and georgia up into Tn, Ky and even parts of North Carolina still have shots of winter weather. Winter is far from over with certainty for those areas.
 
One thing is certain: we will never get these kinds of precipitation events when it is actually cold enough to snow. We’ll have to scratch and claw our way to a couple of mercy inches. SMH
 
Rain Cold said:
The end of winter is shaping up to be a disaster if you want cold and snow. I was hopeful last week that we’d see the modeling correct colder in the lr, but the progs keep looking worse and worse. MJO Phase 8 is for the birds. We’ve been had!
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RC,
Not disagreeing in the least; been looking for any model, no matter how bogus, to suggest otherwise, and no needle found in the haystack.
However, like you say, last week was hopeful. Whose to say that in 3 or 4 or 5 days it's not all lit up light a Christmas tree (and not the 4th of July)? Wishful thinking? Perhaps. Yet, it is only February 4th, and y'all have a shot at least for another good 5 weeks give or take.
Do not despair ... at least not for 10 days or so ... ;)
Off the soap box ... :cool:
 
pcbjr said:
RC,
Not disagreeing in the least; been looking for any model, no matter how bogus, to suggest otherwise, and no needle found in the haystack.
However, like you say, last week was hopeful. Whose to say that in 3 or 4 or 5 days it's not all lit up light a Christmas tree (and not the 4th of July)? Wishful thinking? Perhaps. Yet, it is only February 4th, and y'all have a shot at least for another good 5 weeks give or take.
Do not despair ... at least not for 10 days or so ... ;)
Off the soap box ... :cool:
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Good post. I agree, but if I don’t start seeing something within the next 10-15 days, I’m punting!
 
Ive always had the mindset that Feb 15 is the end of winter in the deep south. 9 years out of 10 that is true. Doesnt mean it cant snow deep into March though. I think Atlantas biggest snowfall was in late March
 
Not sure whether winter is over as my crystal ball is a little murky, but I NEVER want to go into severe season nor the 5-6 months of heat which follows it. Also Hurricanes are fun to track, as long as they don't hit anything
 
MichaelJ said:
Not sure whether winter is over as my crystal ball is a little murky, but I NEVER want to go into severe season nor the 5-6 months of heat which follows it. Also Hurricanes are fun to track, as long as they don't hit anything
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the months of June, July, August, and sometimes September are just miserable in North GA. Heat combined with humidity combined with mosquitoes is a recipe for misery.
 
Rain Cold said:
Good post. I agree, but if I don’t start seeing something within the next 10-15 days, I’m punting!
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Could this be the third February in a row without any accumulating snow for Raleigh. We might have had a trace in 2016 and 2017 but nothing accumulating that I recall. February is our peak snow month and to potentially go three February’s in a row would be disappointing. Still holding out hope for last week of February but it’s getting tough to hope when the global ensembles look this rough.
 
Storm5 said:
Didn't you say wi ter was over?

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Yes and no. Yes, I said it's over for big storms, and I punted February for any snow already and it seems to be shaping up to not snow this month. However, I think there may be a little chance of snow if we can get the patterns right and get lucky with a late winter storm.
 
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