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Pattern Freezing Ferocious February

SD said:
That's a bomb over hudson bay.
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Now, if those 2 highs would just pinch a little ...
 
accu35 said:
Boy, the first week og February looks great. Good potential for cold and a winterstorm in yhe mix. Enjoy this warm weather while you can because February will start with a Boom!!!
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I wouldn't look for anything till the second week of February as far as storms go . Pattern change is always rushed by the models

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Storm5 said:
I wouldn't look for anything till the second week of February as far as storms go . Pattern change is always rushed by the models

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Not disagreeing ... but that's a long way out ... the whole key to "if" and perhaps "when" is tied to a few key indices ... let's see where they roll the next week to 10 days ... ;)
 
pcbjr said:
Not disagreeing ... but that's a long way out ... the whole key to "if" and perhaps "when" is tied to a few key indices ... let's see where they roll the next week to 10 days ... ;)
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Yes, indeed. Don't forget there are analogs that suggest long-lasting significant cold won't return as per my forecast. OTOH, the models late in the 11-15 period do suggest fun times may once again be ahead and Febs such as 1895 and 1899 may want at least a say in this. This is one time where I wouldn't at all mind being flat out wrong about 2/8+.
 
Storm5 said:
I wouldn't look for anything till the second week of February as far as storms go . Pattern change is always rushed by the models

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Except this year and the Christmas outbreak! Came earlier than expected, in the end.
 
GaWx said:
Yes, indeed. Don't forget there are analogs that suggest long-lasting significant cold won't return as per my forecast. OTOH, the models late in the 11-15 period do suggest fun times may once again be ahead and Febs such as 1895 and 1899 may want at least a say in this. This is one time where I wouldn't at all mind being flat out wrong about 2/8+.
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Larry,
Your forecast has reason, and a very sound basis. However, and an extremely cautious however at that, this year has defied all odds. If we go to summer weather next week, and stay there, of course it'll be disappointing, but there's always a chance for Mother Nature to do her thing in ways we never see. Don't sell yourself short, but by golly damn Man, I'm hoping against hope for something we all sit back and marvel at come 3/15/18 ... ;)

... and it's possible, but not probable ...

~~~~~~
EDIT - Just give Tony a bucket full of pingers and the world will be good for a year ... :p
 
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Holy Happy Hour, Batman. That run shows a high of all of 0 at Chicago on 2/6. It also suggests Nashville could be 32 or colder from noon 2/5 til 9AM on 2/8! This resembles the kind of cold seen earlier this month though this is only in fantasyland right now.
 
I've seen Larry mention 1960 a few times today . I know he isn't calling for a repeat but I'm gonna study what happened in 1960 to see if I need to go allnin for a 1960 part 2
 
I think I saw this posted in the January thread the other day, but I didn’t get a chance to comment on it. The below average temperatures that’s displayed for the second half of February from the CFS is drastically different from what they showed back in late November and early December the last time I saw them. It was wall to wall warmth across majority of the CONUS back then. Edit: I went back and found it, it was the weeklies, not the monthlies, I was wondering why I checked TT and the monthlies still showed above average temperatures in the SE. D’oh!
 
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GaWx said:
Each and every one of these is noteworthy for sure. However, I'd say the incredibly late 3/28/1955 and 2" St. Augustine should get asterisks for most unusual. Also, note a plurality of these was in the 2nd week of Feb.
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Yeah Larry, I heard about February 1958! Nearly 3 inches of snow in Tallahassee, FL!
 
Storm5 said:
I've seen Larry mention 1960 a few times today . I know he isn't calling for a repeat but I'm gonna study what happened in 1960 to see if I need to go allnin for a 1960 part 2
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Feb/March 1960 was on par with the Storm of the Century, as a once in a lifetime type 'event'... although, 1960 was a series of events over 2 months. Incredible durability of cold and snowfall for the mid-south/Southern Apps.
 
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