Stormsfury
Member
H and I names......
Also a sidenote: Humberto was Hugo's replacement name.
H and I names......
It’s the 18z, we toss!? That work for tropics also!?The 120 hour for 18Z GFS is a bit further west than the 6Z and 12Z. That tells me the odds somewhat favor a further west track in the western basin vs the 6Z/12Z and maybe a similar pretty far west track to the 0Z. Also, this run is much stronger than the 3 prior runs. Let's see. This may be a doozy.
Yeah that's the second time the GFS threw out a solution that wouldn't work. There's just no way that thing would cover most of Hispaniola and come out without taking an even bigger blow than what it did.
Think the bigger issue looking long haul is the further south solution appearing as if it were to miss the shredder it'd cause issues as depicted, but as soon as it hit the shredder and didn't weaken a ton it became a trash run.
Of course we are getting this again.
That's ironic....Also a sidenote: Humberto was Hugo's replacement name.
Thankfully its gonna change at least 30 to 40 more times over the next 10 days. Would be another nightmare scenario for forecasters as a turn 100 miles east or west would change landfall point dramatically.
Just time to sit back and watch the trends unfold.
More ots possibilities right?Just for giggles, look at the trend of the high over CONUS in the last 4 runs. It's riding higher each run. Interesting....
View attachment 23330
If I remember correctly the GFS had this exact track for one of Its runs on Dorian when It was projected to hit Hispaniola. The only Difference was Dorian was a 1006mb Depression and was so sheared we didn't know where the Energy after it hit the Dominican Republic.
This is just one of those runs we toss out the window and say, Silly GFS.
However, It's not totally bonkers from its similarities in the 12z. What makes this run go into Florida is that the high is much stronger, therefore, has a stronger impact on the "Hurricane" as did the low more so in the previous run. I also will make note that the 00z and 06z runs had the High to the left which almost always promote OTS storms.
View attachment 23331View attachment 23332
Not based on the trend of those 4 runs....More ots possibilities right?