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Pattern ENSO Updates

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Snowfan, Mar 13, 2017.

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  1. NCSNOW

    NCSNOW Member

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    I'll take neutral heading into fall/ winter. 1st choice is weak el Nino. And I mean weak, hair above neutral.
     
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  2. cd2play

    cd2play Member

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    Wasn't 2009-10 a moderate El Nino? I was thinking it was on the border line between weak and moderate. I just hope we don't have another La Nina or even cool neutral.
     
  3. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    It peaked at low end strong.
     
  4. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Latest ENSO discussion says no El Niño Advisory but nearly 50% chance of a El Niño by DJF.
     
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  5. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Perfect timing
     
  6. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Not for my area it isn't. Every El- Nino for winter time always goes wrong and gives little to no snow. Get it out of here and into March!
     
  7. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Latest Nino 3.4 update has it warming to -0.1 C.
     
  8. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Latest Nino 3.4 update is the same from last update.
     
  9. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Indeed, Niño 3.4 stays at -0.1C:

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

    Note in this update that the upper equatorial Pacific OHC is not only holding up but it is starting to slowly rise again and is back above +0.80. If this persists into June, the chance at a weak to possibly moderate El Niño peak in late fall or winter would increase.

    At the same time, I have just learned about a 0.5 C warm bias in the May Eurosip ASO Niño 3.4 forecast based on 13 years of data. Therefore, I eagerly await the release of the May 2018 Eurosip ASO Niño 3.4 forecast. If it were to come in at only warm neutral, I'd have to favor no warmer than warm neutral for at least ASO even though it could subsequently reach weak El Niño later in the year. Even if it were to come in at weak El Niño in ASO, I'd have to remain wary about it happening as early as ASO due to this 0.5 C warm bias. Sometimes Eurosip has gotten this right but more often it has missed to the warm side. Then again, a persistently warm upper OHC may mean this would be one of the times Eurosip gets it right.
     
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  10. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    The May, 2018, Eurosip ENSO 3.4 SST anomaly forecast through October was released today:

    https://stream.ecmwf.int/data/gorax...7-6fe5cac1a363ec1525f54343b6cc9fd8-2H4fDD.png

    I have it near +0.35 or warm neutral rather than weak El Nino for ASO averaged out. Based on what I've found to be a significant warm bias in the Eurosip, I'm now expecting no warmer than warm neutral for ASO despite a solidly warm subsurface that is now starting to rewarm slowly. Because of this warm bias and because we're still cold neutral, I can't yet count out cold neutral for ASO though I'm thinking warm neutral has the best chance right now due to the warm subsurface and since 5 of the 13 Eurosip forecasts turned out accurate. I still think it MAY get to weak to possibly low end moderate El Nino status by late fall or early winter, especially if the warm subsurface holds or warms.

    I found this warm bias by looking at how the ASO 3.4 SST anomaly forecasts made in the preceding May by Eurosip verified:

    Year: Eurosip's May fcast verification for ASO 3.4
    2017: 1.1 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
    2016: 0.1 warmer (weak La Niña correctly predicted)
    2015: 0.1 warmer (strong El Niño correctly predicted)
    2014: 0.5 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
    2013: 0.5 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
    2012: 0.9 cooler (warm neutral occurred vs moderate El Niño prediction)
    2011: 1.1 cooler (moderate La Niña occurred vs warm neutral prediction)
    2010: 0.9 cooler (strong La Niña occurred vs weak La Niña prediction)
    2009: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
    2008: 0.8 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs weak El Niño prediction)
    2007: 0.2 cooler (moderate La Niña correctly predicted)
    2006: 0.2 cooler (weak El Niño correctly predicted)
    2005: 0.4 cooler (cold neutral occurred vs warm neutral prediction)

    So, of the 13 May forecasts for ASO, 5 were correctly predicted while 3 were one category too warm, 4 were two categories too warm, and 1 was three categories too warm. None were any categories too cold! The average was 0.5 too warm or one category too warm.

    Out of the 7 Eurosip El Niño predictions for ASO in the preceding May, only 3 verified. In contrast, Eurosip predicted only 3 La Niñas in ASO but 4 occurred.

    Of the 3 warm neutral predictions, 2 ended up one category too warm while 1 ended up three categories too warm. Of the 5 weak El Niño predictions, 2 ended up verifying correctly while 1 was one category too warm and 2 were two categories too warm.

    Out of the 13 predictions, weak El Niño was clearly the most common prediction (5) while warm neutral was 2nd most common (3). Next was weak La Niña (2). The remainder were each predicted once: strong El Niño, moderate El Niño, and moderate La Niña. There were no cold neutral or strong La Niña predictions though 4 cold neutral occurred (the most of any category) and one strong La Niña occurred.

    So, of the 13 May predictions for ASO, a whopping 10 were warmer than 0.0 while only 3 were colder. It turned out that only 5 were warmer than 0.0 while 8 were colder.

    The average May Eurosip ASO 3.4 prog during 2005-17 was for +0.4 vs the -0.1 actual.
     
    Last edited: May 22, 2018 at 4:10 PM
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