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Pattern ENSO Updates

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Snowfan, Mar 13, 2017.

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  1. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Surprisingly, 3.4 cooled slightly again and is now down to -1.1, which is tied for the coldest weekly, which was last set in the fall. So, based on this, we're still in moderate La Nina territory.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2018
  2. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    In today's weekly update, 3.4 warmed from -1.1 to -0.8.
     
  3. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    tractor girl and accu35 like this.
  4. Clayton

    Clayton Member

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    Oh snap! I just saw an ENSO update from the Australian Bureau and the La Nina has already ended! That was QUICK! I didn't expect it to end THIS fast! I thought it would be later on in spring, but I guess not haha. Amazing how the MJO, Kelvin Wave, and WWB literally obliterated this La Nina in a matter of weeks when it was just at moderate levels! @GaWx @Webberweather53
     
  5. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Today’s CPC update has the Nino 3.4 at -0.7 C.
     
  6. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Today’s CPC update has it cooling to -0.8 C.
     
  7. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    This La Nina doesn't want to give up? Wonder when it will decide to warm up. If we don't get it to an El Nino by hurricane season I think we are in trouble again.
     
  8. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    The downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that was generated by the big MJO burst in February has entered the eastern Pacific and a slackening of the trades the next few weeks due to the MJO propagating into the WP and W Hem should aid in its continued maintenance and/or growth when it reaches the eastern boundary region in a 2-3 weeks or so. This La Nina will come to a screeching halt in short order.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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  10. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Latest 3.4 update has it at -0.4 C. La Niña is nearing its end.
     
  11. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Webberweather53 likes this.
  12. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Here comes downwelling kelvin wave #2 in the CP (between about 180-160W) triggered by week after week of near surface anomalous westerlies and convergence around and just west of the dateline. We're taking yet another step towards putting ourselves in position to get an El Nino later this year and/or in 2019.
    wkxzteq_anm.gif

    An equatorial Rossby Wave (evidenced by the solid red contours depicted in Carl Schreck's algorithm in the 2nd picture below) will generate another surge in westerlies and near surface convergence in the Central Pacific even though most of the tropical forcing is currently over the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent (and would argue for basin-wide easterlies over the Pacific). This is part of the favorable forcing for an El Nino I alluded to weeks ago that would probably be prevalent this year w/ the raging +PMM that's dominating the Pacific.
    u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

    uwnd850.cfs.er.pacific.7.png
     
  13. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Thanks, but I don't even understand thunderstorms in July when the are building out of the Gulf and the Atlantic and kissing IMBY ... :confused:
     
  14. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    The latest 3.4 update warmed to -0.2 C.
     

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