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Pattern ENSO Updates

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Snowfan, Mar 13, 2017.

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  1. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Surprisingly, 3.4 cooled slightly again and is now down to -1.1, which is tied for the coldest weekly, which was last set in the fall. So, based on this, we're still in moderate La Nina territory.
     
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2018
  2. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    In today's weekly update, 3.4 warmed from -1.1 to -0.8.
     
  3. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  4. Clayton

    Clayton Member

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    Oh snap! I just saw an ENSO update from the Australian Bureau and the La Nina has already ended! That was QUICK! I didn't expect it to end THIS fast! I thought it would be later on in spring, but I guess not haha. Amazing how the MJO, Kelvin Wave, and WWB literally obliterated this La Nina in a matter of weeks when it was just at moderate levels! @GaWx @Webberweather53
     
  5. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Today’s CPC update has the Nino 3.4 at -0.7 C.
     
  6. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Today’s CPC update has it cooling to -0.8 C.
     
  7. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Moderator

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    This La Nina doesn't want to give up? Wonder when it will decide to warm up. If we don't get it to an El Nino by hurricane season I think we are in trouble again.
     
  8. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    The downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave that was generated by the big MJO burst in February has entered the eastern Pacific and a slackening of the trades the next few weeks due to the MJO propagating into the WP and W Hem should aid in its continued maintenance and/or growth when it reaches the eastern boundary region in a 2-3 weeks or so. This La Nina will come to a screeching halt in short order.
    [​IMG]
     
  9. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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  10. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Latest 3.4 update has it at -0.4 C. La Niña is nearing its end.
     
  11. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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  12. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Here comes downwelling kelvin wave #2 in the CP (between about 180-160W) triggered by week after week of near surface anomalous westerlies and convergence around and just west of the dateline. We're taking yet another step towards putting ourselves in position to get an El Nino later this year and/or in 2019.
    wkxzteq_anm.gif

    An equatorial Rossby Wave (evidenced by the solid red contours depicted in Carl Schreck's algorithm in the 2nd picture below) will generate another surge in westerlies and near surface convergence in the Central Pacific even though most of the tropical forcing is currently over the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent (and would argue for basin-wide easterlies over the Pacific). This is part of the favorable forcing for an El Nino I alluded to weeks ago that would probably be prevalent this year w/ the raging +PMM that's dominating the Pacific.
    u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

    uwnd850.cfs.er.pacific.7.png
     
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  13. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Thanks, but I don't even understand thunderstorms in July when the are building out of the Gulf and the Atlantic and kissing IMBY ... :confused:
     
  14. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    The latest 3.4 update warmed to -0.2 C.
     
  15. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Last year I got fooled and thought we were going to get El Nino. Am I ready to make a prediction for this year? After last year's early summer debacle and with it not even being May yet, I'm not ready. There is such a thing as the spring unpredictablity barrier for ENSO.

    But I have been reading @Webberweather53 posts that are suggesting El Nino this time and he wasn't at all gung ho last year on El Nino like I was. Also, look at the OHC image below. It shows OHC already up to +0.9 and still rising. Based on history even though it is far from perfect and sometimes can be far off as well as lead to a fakkeout like happened in spring of 1993, that often gives us an idea of where the trimonthly peak in Nino 3.4 (ONI) is headed later in the year. ...i.e., at least a weak Nino MAY be on the way. Also, note that during last year's El Nino fake-out, the ONI peaked at only +0.4, which is where the ONI happened to peak.

    OHCApril2018.gif
     
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  16. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Larry,
    You may or may not be wrong or right, but one thing is for damn sure, you are about the most honest, humble and candid person I've ever had the pleasure to deal with on any level.
    Thanks!
    Best,
    Phil
     
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  17. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorologist

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    Thanks Larry, yeah my selling points this year early on were the development of a monster +PMM this past winter and the fact that ENSO history since the mid 19th century shows that El Ninos have occurred within 3 years of a Super event, and most La Ninas typically last 2 years (even if they’re separated by a period of attenuation like last year with the El Nino attempt). Other things have come together and the evolution seems to be following very closely in line with weak or moderate El Ninos that develop in the summer or fall. There’s certainly potential we could pull off the trifecta this upcoming winter and have a weak-moderate El Nino, easterly QBO, and very low solar activity that often accompany very cold/snowy blockbuster eastern US winters like 2009-10 (although this year was fantastic in the SE US in its own right)
     
  18. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    The latest 3.4 update warmed to 0.0 C..
     
  19. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    ^Yes, indeed, today's update shows a warming of Niño 3.4 from -0.2 to 0.0. Meanwhile, it also shows the subsurface having topped for now with a very slight cooling back from +0.9 to +0.8. As we go through the next few months, it will be interesting to see whether or not further significant subsurface warming resumes since that often is a precursor to what the 3.4 surface, itself, does. As it stands now, the subsurface, itself, is already favoring further warming of the 3.4 surface over the next couple of months, overall, and weak El Niño by late summer wouldn't at all be a surprise.

    Edit: We've had 5 weeks in a row of Nino 3.4 warming. The record longest # of weeks in a row of warming going back to 1990 is only 7 (May-July 2003) and there have been only a couple of 6 week warming streaks. So, just based on stats, the warming should shortly cease at least temporarily.
     
    Last edited: Apr 30, 2018
  20. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    From Joe Bastardi today fwiw: he's calling for a Modoki El Niño. From what he's tweeted recently, he's already thinking this will help lead to a cold E US winter.
    I'm just a messenger. Maybe he'll be right. Maybe not. What I do know is that IF there were to be a weak to lower end moderate El Niño, that statistically would give the best chance for a cold SE winter ENSOwise though it would far from guarantee that. A -NAO in combination with it would help more and a +PDO with those two would help even more.

     
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  21. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Latest Nino 3.4 has cooled down to -0.2 C.
     
  22. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Today's SOI rose from yesterday's ~-25, the lowest since Feb., to today's ~-15. I'm expecting tomorrow's SOI to be a small positive due to a significant SLP fall at Darwin and a rise at Tahiti.

    The 0Z Euro indicates no return to the solid -SOI area at least for 10 days. It suggests no Darwin SLP above 1013 and mainly near the 1011.5-1012.5 range while Tahiti daily appears to mainly hang around the 1014-15 range. That would mean an average of near a +5 SOI for the upcoming 10 days (no SOI below the negative single digits), which is in contrast to the -7 averaged over the last 17 days. Based on this, we should end up pretty close to 0 for the first 17 days of May. So, from a potential oncoming El Nino standpoint, the May SOI so far isn't looking gung ho on it though we need to remember that the subsurface is pretty warm. Also, looking at history back to the late 1800s, weak to moderate El Ninos have often had pretty neutral to sometimes even solidly +s in preceding May SOIs. So, it is still too early to read much into the SOIs as far as weak to moderate El Nino chances are concerned. The summer SOIs will give us a bigger hint.

    However, the 6 strongest Ninos had these preceding May SOIs: -7.0, -8.5, -24.0, -7.1, -19.0, and -13.1 or an average of -13.1. So, this tells me that a very strong El Nino isn't currently being suggested by the 5/2018 SOI.
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2018
  23. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Since monthly upper equatorial Pacific OHC (subsurface) records started in 1979, here are the 10 warmest Aprils (180-100W) prior to 2018:

    1997: +2.17
    2015: +1.74
    2014: +1.41
    1982: +0.93
    1980: +0.82
    1993: +0.81
    1991: +0.80
    1981: +0.77
    2009: +0.65
    1990: +0.65

    6 of these 10 as well as the four warmest (+0.93+) preceded El Nino. The other 4 preceded neutral ENSO. So, none preceded La Nina.

    April of 2018 just came out and was +0.81, which is tied with April of 1993 for 6th warmest out of 40! Although it is impressively warm and should be taken into account for El Nino chances, this 0.81 is not warm enough to give me high confidence in an oncoming El Nino based strictly on the above stats as three that were nearby (1980's +0.82, 1993's +0.81 and 1981's +0.77) turned out to precede neutral ENSO falls/winters. 1993 turned out to be a major El Nino fake-out, much more misleading than 2017.

    ***Edit: Of Aprils of 1980, 1981, and 1993, 2 of the 3 cooled a lot the very next month. So, the May OHC may be a good hint of what's to come.

    Monthly upper OHC link: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt
     
    Last edited: May 7, 2018
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  24. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Larry,
    Good info and a great link; please take a minute and look at Wiki and let me know if you'd like the link placed there, and if so, where; in that case I'll add it.
    Best!
    Phil
     
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  25. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I didn't see an ENSO section. Maybe I missed it. If you were to start one, I'd put it in there. Otherwise, I wouldn't put it in the wiki.
     
  26. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Here ya go - Just created it.
    http://wiki.southernwx.com/doku.php?id=learning_materials
    FS and I need to get a dedicated page to ENSO stuff, or get links and models into an ENSO section under "Models" with stuff like you provide. I'd prefer the latter in Models, but it may not fit (???).
    Thoughts?
    Best,
    Phil
     
  27. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I'd have a section covering items used to predict oncoming ENSO. This can include ENSO prediction models. But I wouldn't call the section "models".
     
  28. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    @pcbjr I need to explain further. I use current indices/indicators like SOI, OHC, SST anomalies, and other things to try to predict the following fall/winter ENSO. They're somewhat predictive based on the multidecadal+ history of each indicator. But since these aren't models, I wouldn't call the section "Models". Instead, I'd call the section, which certainly could include ENSO models, something like "Indicators used to predict ENSO". I also look at the ENSO models but not as frequently.

    Maybe I'll provide to you at some point when I have more time a list of some of the other links I use that can go in this section.
     
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  29. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Whatever we do and whenever, I just want it to be right ... Thanks, Larry! ... ;)
     
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  30. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Thanks for the "Like" and whatever we do, it's not a clique, but weather for all ... :cool:
     

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