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Pattern ENSO Updates

Webberweather53 said:
For the 2nd week in a row, OISSTv2 weekly NINO 3.4 SSTAs fall, now down to +0.5C...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst8110.for
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Even the TAO graphic shows that it cooled down rather significantly last week vs the prior week.

For 7/20-22, Tahiti's SLP is likely to come in 1017.5+ and may peak near 1019 on 7/21! Translation: I'm looking for SOIs of +20s to near +30 during 7/20-22! July is well on its way to a healthy +SOI as per my recent posts.
 
pcbjr said:
Don't know if you consider yourself "deep south" (as I guess that's a relative term), but being the eternal optimist, remember this exchange from a couple days ago: http://southernwx.com/community/threads/enso-updates.146/page-8#post-33870
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I was referring to our locations like Gainesville and Savannah, where it hardly ever snows with significant accumulations, regardless of ENSO. In other words, there's no evidence per history that the already very low chance is lowered any more if there's no Nino vs if there is one though obviously the sample size of significant snows is small and, therefore, statistical credibility is rather low. However, for areas much further inland where significant snowfalls are way more frequent than SAV/GNV, like the specified Atlanta as well as where most active posters live, it would be better to have El Nino than not have it per longterm snowfall stats for chances for a major snowstorm.
 
GaWx said:
I was referring to our locations like Gainesville and Savannah, where it hardly ever snows with significant accumulations, regardless of ENSO. In other words, there's no evidence per history that the already very low chance is lowered any more if there's no Nino vs if there is one though obviously the sample size of significant snows is small and, therefore, statistical credibility is rather low. However, for areas much further inland where significant snowfalls are way more frequent than SAV/GNV, like the specified Atlanta as well as where most active posters live, it would be better to have El Nino than not have it per longterm snowfall stats for chances for a major snowstorm.
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I know. Just trying to be upbeat ... :rolleyes:
 
So, maybe weak el nino or neutral? Even if a neutral were to happen, i though we could do pretty fair with cold/possible winterstorms in the southeast. Speaking inland occurs? I mean much better than last year i hope.
 
Well, even if no el nino, then i will still be happy of having a neutral. Better than la nina. I remember couple years ago we enter fall/winter with a strong Nino and ended up being the worse winter with no stroms. So ill take my chances with Neutral than Nino. I was always told that your Neutral winters are good for winterstorms in the south.
 
With TAO and the weeklies having recently cooled 0.2+ and the July SOI headed for a sold +, I have no choice but to reduce the odds in my mind for an oncoming El Nino this year. Previously, I had said the chances were "very good".

If one wants El Nino, one cannot like how high Tahiti's SLP is going to end up this month. For 7/1-20. it is averaging 1015. I'm projecting it will approach or even reach 1019 tomorrow and still be near 1018 the day after. Here are my educated guesses for the rest of the month based on the 12Z models:

7/21: 1019
7/22: 1018
7/23: 1016.5
7/24: 1015
7/25: 1014.5
7/26: 1014
7/27: 1014.5
7/28: 1015
7/29: 1015
7/30: 1015

If the above projections were to come close to verifying, the full July 2017 Tahiti averaged SLP would come out to ~1015.2, which is a full mb above the longterm average for all years since 1950. That 1015.2 may even be a little conservatively low as the EPS would imply that it get up to ~1015.35. Here are some Tahiti averages for various oncoming ENSO:

Strong Nino: 1013.4
Weak to Mod Nino: 1013.9
Weak to mod Nina: 1014.3
Strong Nina: 1015.2

So, Tahiti's 2017 SLP is now projected to come in near the average for an oncoming strong La Nina. As a matter of fact, every single instance of Tahiti being 1015.0+ in July since 1950 (8 of them) was an oncoming La Nina year. OTOH, every single one of those 8 cases had an AMJ trimonthly Nino 3.4 that was negative vs 2017's +0.5. So, I'm not at all saying it means we're likely headed for La Nina. But I am saying that the chances for El Nino have dropped quite a bit in my mind over the last month. Consider this: for every El Nino since 1950 that was oncoming (24 of them), Tahiti's SLP was never higher than 1014.7!
 
GaWx said:
With TAO and the weeklies having recently cooled 0.2+ and the July SOI headed for a sold +, I have no choice but to reduce the odds in my mind for an oncoming El Nino this year. Previously, I had said the chances were "very good".

If one wants El Nino, one cannot like how high Tahiti's SLP is going to end up this month. For 7/1-20. it is averaging 1015. I'm projecting it will approach or even reach 1019 tomorrow and still be near 1018 the day after. Here are my educated guesses for the rest of the month based on the 12Z models:

7/21: 1019
7/22: 1018
7/23: 1016.5
7/24: 1015
7/25: 1014.5
7/26: 1014
7/27: 1014.5
7/28: 1015
7/29: 1015
7/30: 1015

If the above projections were to come close to verifying, the full July 2017 Tahiti averaged SLP would come out to ~1015.2, which is a full mb above the longterm average for all years since 1950. That 1015.2 may even be a little conservatively low as the EPS would imply that it get up to ~1015.35. Here are some Tahiti averages for various oncoming ENSO:

Strong Nino: 1013.4
Weak to Mod Nino: 1013.9
Weak to mod Nina: 1014.3
Strong Nina: 1015.2

So, Tahiti's 2017 SLP is now projected to come in near the average for an oncoming strong La Nina. As a matter of fact, every single instance of Tahiti being 1015.0+ in July since 1950 (8 of them) was an oncoming La Nina year. OTOH, every single one of those 8 cases had an AMJ trimonthly Nino 3.4 that was negative vs 2017's +0.5. So, I'm not at all saying it means we're likely headed for La Nina. But I am saying that the chances for El Nino have dropped quite a bit in my mind over the last month. Consider this: for every El Nino since 1950 that was oncoming (24 of them), Tahiti's SLP was never higher than 1014.7!
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Dad gum, Man!
Fabulous analysis (except for the prognosis). ;)
Thanks, Larry!
Maybe something else will help us this year! I've been good, so Santa may yet reward ... LOL
Best as Always,
Phil
 
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pcbjr said:
Dad gum, Man!
Fabulous analysis (except for the prognosis). ;)
Thanks, Larry!
Maybe something else will help us this year! I've been good, so Santa may yet reward ... LOL
Best as Always,
Phil
Click to expand...

I'll take 2010/11 for the win. If I'm not mistaken that was a La Niña winter. Had two great winter storms for my area.


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ECMWF ensemble suite is forecasting yet another major easterly trade wind burst, as strong or stronger than the current one, to take hold over the central Pacific near the end of the month and going into the first part of August

Screen Shot 2017-07-21 at 10.26.19 AM.png
 
Screen Shot 2017-07-21 at 11.34.20 AM.png BTW, ICYMI NOAA has just updated their global SST record from ERSSTv4 to ERSSTv5, that includes several major upgrades (including updated Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections (EOT) whose purpose is to essentially reconstruct the spatially and temporally complete SST fields from an often sparse, incomplete observational network, update from IOCADSv2.5 to ICOADS 3.0 that includes several million more observations in the tropical Pacific, inclusion of ARGO buoy data through 5m depth, updates to their sea ice via HADISST2.0, and reduction of optimal smoothing that improves the quality of their data, particularly in the modern era) all of which means their ONI data is likely to change yet again and there's liable to be some changes to my ENS ONI index when I update the QC criterion... I'll do my best to share the ONI data from ERSSTv5 thru 1865 asap.

https://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/
 
JB today on el nino
582f80b05b6ab417b04c9d1523c02e0c.gif


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