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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

It seems to me that the 850s are significantly warmer than they were at this point in advance of the big storm. Remember when the 0C 850 line was right along the SE US coast for several days worth of runs? Subsequently there was the NW trend, which brought the 850 0C line to near ATL. Looking at this Fri, 850s along the coast are +5 to +7 and the 0C line is already near or just N of ATL. So, if there were to be a NW trend of the precip again this time, wouldn't it be warmer than the last storm at 850 at least in N GA and nearby areas? So, my gut feel is that the areas hit by the last storm likely don't have the same potential with this one. It just doesn't look cold enough. Am I missing something? If so by all means, tell where I'm off.
 
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It seems to me that the 850s are significantly warmer than they were at this point in advance of the big storm. Remember when the 0C 850 line was right along the SE US coast for several days worth of runs? Subsequently there was the NW trend, which brought the 850 0C line to near ATL. Looking at this Fri, 850s along the coast are +5 to +7 and the 0C line is already near or just N of ATL. So, if there were to be a NW trend of the precip again this time, wouldn't it be warmer than the last storm at 850 at least in N GA and nearby areas? So, my gut feel is that the areas hit by the last storm likely don't have the same potential with this one. It just doesn't look cold enough. Am I missing something? If so by all means, tell where I'm off.

You're right. In fact, earlier looking at the Euro from 12z, I had to check two data sources for 850s to make sure it wasn't a plotting error. Figured whatever happens from it to likely be rain for most.

Maybe the 500mb look with the energy (similar to last storm) and the jet streak Eric has alluded to has some a little over excited. Lets not forget the main wave that produced the majority of the Wintry weather started pretty far back in the Gulf from that system. This potential, whatever it is, doesn't even have much ensemble support, and leads me to think if anything, it'd be a late blooming fish storm.
 
We lost the ukmet this run. The 00z run took two steps back and has no system ...

Losing the UKMET could be a large sign as it used (might still) have a tendency to over do low pressures in the Southeast. Not having one at all, should be a red flag this far out.
 
I didn't think the GEFS was that bad . Big arctic outbreak towards the end of the run m the southeast ridge tried To show up and stay but all signs point to that being brief or non existent
 
Ugh I can't believe I'm saying this but due to its handle of the last storm you have to give it slightly more credence. The NAM at the end of its range would be a much different solution than the GFS is extrapolated out.
I can't believe you said it either lol however you are right the energy diving south is MUCH further SW on the NAM vs the GFS
 
I didn't think the GEFS was that bad . Big arctic outbreak towards the end of the run m the southeast ridge tried To show up and stay but all signs point to that being brief or non existent

I must admit to not liking that the last 3 GEFS runs have had a slight increase in the SE ridging with each run during the 11-15 day period vs the prior one but hopefully this trend is just a burp. It looks too Ninaish too early vs analogs. This is the type of thing I'd expect to see more in the last half of Jan and in Feb, when a Niña tends to be ugliest for the SE, than late this month when QBO/ENSO/-AO analogs say cold returns to the SE and continues into early Jan.
 
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