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Tropical Call maps Irma

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by deltadog03, Sep 5, 2017.

  1. deltadog03

    deltadog03 Meteorologist Member

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    B5CB0274-DDCC-4274-A952-CCA2A3B32B23.jpeg Lots of questions still to be answerd on this one. Here is my first call on what I think is possible for Irma. With help from a few others on here.
     
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  2. Tarheel1

    Tarheel1 Member

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    JB said he had this strength at this time at cat 5 last week! He's the man!
    But on a serious tip, don't see how some parts of Florida avoid getting destroyed! :(
     
  3. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Of course he did. This only fuels his massive ego. I may make a map just because later today after 12Z and 18Z.
     
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  4. Flo

    Flo Member

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    What would option B mean for SC?
     
  5. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    Breezy maybe gusty, tons of rain and depending on exact track probably tornadoes
    Actually would probably be some good TS force winds
     
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  6. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    Is it ok if I share a call map of my own? I don't want to come off as trying to hijack this thread. lol
     
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  7. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    Absolutely ...
     
  8. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Go ahead! Uploading mine in a few minutes.

    Just as a general statement for all maps to all guests. These are member maps only, and you should continue referring to the NHC forecasts.
     
  9. WeatherLC

    WeatherLC Staff Member Administrator

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    That's what the thread is here for. Go for it!
     
  10. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Here is my first call for this storm. Again, this is just my map. Use NHC forecasts over this.

    Basically, I fell the GFS is a bit too far east and may be overdoing its size, but not its intensity. I believe the HMON is doing great, and therefore have adapted it into my call map. The GEFS and EPS also seem to be relatively similar, but different than their strange OP runs. I expect this thing to deliver a very powerful blow to South Florida, so it's likely a good thing they are evacuating tomorrow. The red indicates the furthest out away from the path I think Irma could go based off of all the models, and the cone indicates the idea I have. If you can't read the numbers, I expect Irma to stay a 5 until the Dominican Republic area, then if it doesn't weaken much, stay one until landfall. If something weakens it, be it ERC or land interaction, I expect it to weaken between a 4 and 5. However, I expect it to restrengthen right before landfall as the waters between Florida and the Bahamas are just rocket fuel to the storm. I even feel that if it is right in the middle between the two, it could beat its winds it has right now. We just have to keep watching it and I may make another call once it passes Hispaniola.
    [​IMG]
     
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  11. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    FS - Nice call but I take issue with the 1 over near Gainesville - the Gators suck this year ... LOL

    PS - Please take this as intended - I hope you bust!
     
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  12. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    LOL. I'm hoping it busts too for all of our sakes. If it doesn't, at least you would be on the weaker side of the storm. However, a hurricane is a hurricane, so it can do damage no matter what.
     
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  13. deltadog03

    deltadog03 Meteorologist Member

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    Nice everyone! post them maps!!
     
  14. GeorgiaGirl

    GeorgiaGirl Member

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    [​IMG]

    Just a quick stab on track by me, and I definitely lean more toward right down the middle and the western side. If I feel like it I might try to make a more detailed map in a couple days.

    Don't know why this image is small here and I don't endorse Accuweather, but it was what I could do right now.
     
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  15. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    Here's my first map

    [​IMG]
     
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  16. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    not seeing anything but a blank page ... :(
     
  17. deltadog03

    deltadog03 Meteorologist Member

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    Ok I will fix it sorry. It wouldn’t let upload it. Too big. So I will compress it.
     
  18. deltadog03

    deltadog03 Meteorologist Member

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  19. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    ^Given the ongoing uncertainty beyond 72hrs I think that's a great call map. I'm going to revise mine sometime later today. I knew I should have waited until today after the 00z model guidance to post the first one, I should have known the 00z models were going to screw me over. lol It was based on the Euro/UK being so far west and the GFS far east and taking a middle of the road approach.
     
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  20. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    I am going to wait until tonight to make a revision, as we should know then whether Irma will strike PR or go north.
     
  21. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    Seems like it will take a lot to miss PR at this point. Although there is a NW motion but not sure that will be enough at least for the northeastern tip of PR.
     
  22. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    I still think the eye will safely miss PR, it'll be close, but I don't think it will make landfall even briefly.
     
  23. GaStorm

    GaStorm Supporter Member

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    You might be right. Last loop does appear to be heading north a bit more which would be great news. I'm hoping it misses south FL since my aunt is there.
     
  24. whatalife

    whatalife Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    [​IMG]

    I do not believe Irma will go OTS at this time.
     
  25. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    My final detailed map. [​IMG]
     
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  26. deltadog03

    deltadog03 Meteorologist Member

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  27. SoutheastRidge

    SoutheastRidge Member

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    [UOTE="Weatherlover92, post: 43809, member: 221"]My final detailed map. [​IMG][/QUOTE]
    Your map shows a Cat 4 at 2nd landfall whereas NHC shows a Cat 1. Why do you think it will be so strong at 2nd landfall ?
     
  28. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    For now, I am deciding to keep my call map as is, but I may make a finer one later dependant on 18Z. I believe that the intensity may be off a bit for the Florida landfall, but we will see what Irma can do in those hot waters.
     
  29. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    Your map shows a Cat 4 at 2nd landfall whereas NHC shows a Cat 1. Why do you think it will be so strong at 2nd landfall ?[/QUOTE]

    My second landfall is a Cat. 3, but you did catch a mistake I made. It should say 120mph, not 130mph. I'll post a revision of it in a bit. To answer your other question, it really depends on what kind of state Irma is in once it approaches FL and then approaches GA/SC. This was a bullish version of my forecast. I know increasing wind shear will be a factor, but I don't know how much because there's still a possibility Irma could re-intensify before it gets near SE FL and those factors obviously have an affect on the wind speeds.
     
  30. Weatherlover92

    Weatherlover92 Member

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    Fixed a couple of errors on the previous map. Track remains the same.
    [​IMG]
     

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