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Misc 2017 Banter/venting thread

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I don't want to sound pompous or anything, just need to make an observational statement in that it's pretty amazing how quickly the paradigm has shifted from supposedly "very good" chances of El Nino only a few short weeks ago to there may not be an El Nino to begin w/ and how I was getting hammered for trying to say these odds were in fact overblown and for saying the SOI had poorly represented recent ENSO behavior, apparently those statements fell on deaf ears (for some & they know who they are). I honestly just want people to look at more information before making blind assertions such as these, especially with multi-faceted, highly non linear, stochastic phenomena such as ENSO...
 
I don't want to sound pompous or anything, just need to make an observational statement in that it's pretty amazing how quickly the paradigm has shifted from supposedly "very good" chances of El Nino only a few short weeks ago to there may not be an El Nino to begin w/ and how I was getting hammered for trying to say these odds were in fact overblown and for saying the SOI had poorly represented recent ENSO behavior, apparently those statements fell on deaf ears (for some & they know who they are). I honestly just want people to look at more information before making blind assertions such as these, especially with multi-faceted, highly non linear, stochastic phenomena such as ENSO...

No. You didn't need to make your observational statement. You chose to make your observational statement that will not sit well with some on this board.


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It doesn't sound pompous when you are right. Webb, you have quickly become one of my most respected sources of forecasts and overall weather knowledge. You are a perfect example of not having to be "old" to have knowledge and expertise. Your upside in the weather community is limitless and we are fortunate to have you on our forum. Always post your thoughts and never worry about being opposed to other's ideas. You always support your thoughts with grounded data and can explain it to the rest of us on "our level". Thanks for what you are doing and keep it up.
 
I don't want to sound pompous or anything, just need to make an observational statement in that it's pretty amazing how quickly the paradigm has shifted from supposedly "very good" chances of El Nino only a few short weeks ago to there may not be an El Nino to begin w/ and how I was getting hammered for trying to say these odds were in fact overblown and for saying the SOI had poorly represented recent ENSO behavior, apparently those statements fell on deaf ears (for some & they know who they are). I honestly just want people to look at more information before making blind assertions such as these, especially with multi-faceted, highly non linear, stochastic phenomena such as ENSO...

Who "hammered" you?

Defininition of hammer: "to criticize severely" per Merriam Webster in this link:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hammer

Who here has ever "hammered" you about anything?

Anyway, my approach is to look at ENSO related chances as continually evolving. By the way, even you said this in this post just a few weeks ago:

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/enso-updates.146/page-3#post-32675

"A weak NINO is definitely more than in play atm given just how close we already are to the threshold and have been of late but w/o appreciable intensification, glwt."
 
I don't want to sound pompous or anything, just need to make an observational statement in that it's pretty amazing how quickly the paradigm has shifted from supposedly "very good" chances of El Nino only a few short weeks ago to there may not be an El Nino to begin w/ and how I was getting hammered for trying to say these odds were in fact overblown and for saying the SOI had poorly represented recent ENSO behavior, apparently those statements fell on deaf ears (for some & they know who they are). I honestly just want people to look at more information before making blind assertions such as these, especially with multi-faceted, highly non linear, stochastic phenomena such as ENSO...
I honestly didn't see anyone being hammered but rather very intellectual, thought provoking research based discussion of difference of opinions. Both of you were commended for that please don't lead this in a different direction, the opinions of you and Larry both were well thought out and backed with extremely sound reasoning. If we indeed end up with no El Nino I can almost guarantee you Larry would have been the first to admit his findings were incorrect and you were right, from what I've seen over the years he's a solid respectable gentleman with no intentions of ruffling of feathers.
 
Heck, with all this rain ive been getting, thats pretty darn close to a nino if anything
 
Folks,
Pardon me for butting in ... But it's a longgggg way to winter ... much needs to evolve. :cool:
Now back to our regularly scheduled July sauna ...
But in the meantime, please keep up a healthy and informative dialogue!
 
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RIP Chester from Linkin Park. :(
 
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Who "hammered" you?

Defininition of hammer: "to criticize severely" per Merriam Webster in this link:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/hammer

Who here has ever "hammered" you about anything?

Anyway, my approach is to look at ENSO related chances as continually evolving. By the way, even you said this in this post just a few weeks ago:

http://southernwx.com/community/threads/enso-updates.146/page-3#post-32675

"A weak NINO is definitely more than in play atm given just how close we already are to the threshold and have been of late but w/o appreciable intensification, glwt."

I think hammering was definitely an extreme way to put it and our discussion relatively speaking was pretty stimulating, but Im also well aware of a lot of other fairly negative chatter outside of here (for example S2K when I mentioned AEI, etc.) and needed a time and place to vent... Oth, there was a lot of evidence even a month ago that I mentioned here (VP200 (e.g. AEI), OLR, zonal wind anomalies, historical ENSO precedence, dynamical/statistical climate models, T depth anomalies, etc) which supported the premise that the odds of an El Nino wasn't anywhere close as likely as you were asserting, even if you assumed ENSO is "continually evolving" (which by itself is a bad idea because you end up on a never ending wild goose chase and there are a plethora of indicators and physical interactions which are foreseeable weeks-months, (in some cases years) in advance, you just need to do some research and literature reading).

Ah, left out the last part of that statement "without appreciable intensification"... It was pretty apparent even a month ago, even with supposed support from the SOI (lol), with the lack of help from the northern hemisphere side of the Pacific, strong easterly trades near the dateline the past 3 months or so, and a dearth of substantial + temperature anomalies @ depth, plus lack of historical support for another El Nino within 2 years after the ending of a strong-super event that without a major change in the base state of the tropical Pacific, an El Nino was not sustainable (while not dynamically impossible, it's unlikely-very unlikely to see another NINO within a few years following a large event, and this may be tied to the evolution of slower propagating, off equatorial rossby waves whose phase speed and period is a function of latitudinal distance from the equator (EQ Rossby Waves move slower and have longer periods further from the equator) that in some cases are refracted off the western boundary as upwelling kelvin waves year or so after the initial series of downwelling Kelvin waves in the eastern Pacific are reinforcing El Nino, may act to thwart oncoming El Nino event for up to 2 years after a major NINO event, effectively serving as a low frequency delayed oscillator which becomes increasingly prevalent after powerful El Ninos.)
 
I think hammering was definitely an extreme way to put it and our discussion relatively speaking was pretty stimulating, but Im also well aware of a lot of other fairly negative chatter outside of here (for example S2K when I mentioned AEI, etc.) and needed a time and place to vent... Oth, there was a lot of evidence even a month ago that I mentioned here (VP200 (e.g. AEI), OLR, zonal wind anomalies, historical ENSO precedence, dynamical/statistical climate models, T depth anomalies, etc) which supported the premise that the odds of an El Nino wasn't anywhere close as likely as you were asserting, even if you assumed ENSO is "continually evolving" (which by itself is a bad idea because you end up on a never ending wild goose chase and there are a plethora of indicators and physical interactions which are foreseeable weeks-months, (in some cases years) in advance, you just need to do some research and literature reading).

Ah, left out the last part of that statement "without appreciable intensification"... It was pretty apparent even a month ago, even with supposed support from the SOI (lol), with the lack of help from the northern hemisphere side of the Pacific, strong easterly trades near the dateline the past 3 months or so, and a dearth of substantial + temperature anomalies @ depth, plus lack of historical support for another El Nino within 2 years after the ending of a strong-super event that without a major change in the base state of the tropical Pacific, an El Nino was not sustainable (while not dynamically impossible, it's unlikely-very unlikely to see another NINO within a few years following a large event, and this may be tied to the evolution of slower propagating, off equatorial rossby waves whose phase speed and period is a function of latitudinal distance from the equator (EQ Rossby Waves move slower and have longer periods further from the equator) that in some cases are refracted off the western boundary as upwelling kelvin waves year or so after the initial series of downwelling Kelvin waves in the eastern Pacific are reinforcing El Nino, may act to thwart oncoming El Nino event for up to 2 years after a major NINO event, effectively serving as a low frequency delayed oscillator which becomes increasingly prevalent after powerful El Ninos.)

If everyone looked at things the same way, discussions wouldn't be as interesting imo. Instead, we analyze these things in very different ways, which sometimes leads to some lively discussions/debates. Your methods incorporate the latest and greatest meteorological based research that you've been heavily involved in or reading. I'll never be able to analyze things that way nor do I desire to. I'll leave that to you. There'd be no point in me trying to replicate what you're doing. I wouldn't post in that case. Complex meteorological based analysis is not my area. My pro background is analytical/statistical research oriented and not met. My specialty is looking at history and statistics/patterns, looking for patterns in a group of numbers (for any area, not just met), and trying to determine the chances of something happening based on those patterns that I find. I actually like to follow the KISS principle. I prefer to avoid overly complex analyses (which I couldn't necessarily even do well) and explain them in a way that I think most everyone could follow. When I write, I think about myself as a reader of what I'm writing. To be honest, I can't always follow what you're saying, which is ok. I don't need to. You keep on doing what you like to do and I'll keep on doing what I like to do. Just please try not to get me riled up into an argument. Keep it classy, please.
 
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