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Tropical Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook '17

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by WilkesboroDude, Jan 11, 2017.

  1. WilkesboroDude

    WilkesboroDude Member

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    Stay tuned to the early Hurricane season forecasts this Spring. Discuss the latest ENSO state. 

    What's your prediction?

    Storm Count
    Hurricanes
    Major Hurricanes
     
  2. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    12
    5 hurricane
    1 major

    Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
     
  3. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Moderator Site Developer

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    18
    7 hurricane
    3 major
     
  4. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    Dang that's actived lol
     
  5. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Moderator Site Developer

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    Yeah, those numbers are way too high I am sure.
     
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  6. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    11

    5

    2
     
  7. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Moderator Site Developer

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    I like that. I said 18 total. Not sure what I was thinking with current info I have. But 11 total storms in the ATL sound great.
     
  8. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    I'd like to add a category - US landfalls.

    Wild guess - I'm going for 3 this far out (including TS's) - late June, Sept and Sept
     
  9. whatalife

    whatalife Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    I'll go with
    8
    6 Canes
    2 Major
     
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  10. accu35

    accu35 Member

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    12 name storms 2 major, 4 Cane, 6 TS's is my guess.
     
  11. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Why not.
    16 named storms
    7 hurricanes
    3 major
    3 landfalls
    Edited back to original.
     
    Last edited: Jun 20, 2017
  12. JtSmarts

    JtSmarts Supporter Member

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    I'll make my prediction when we have more of an idea of how the atmosphere is going to be. I'll gladly sacrifice the hurricane to El Nino if that means we'll have a better 17-18 winter.
     
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  13. skywatcher

    skywatcher Supporter Member

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    12 named storms
    6 canes
    2 major
    2 US landfall (TS or Cane)
     
  14. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Probably worth mentioning here, in seeing how much these forecasts are passed around and treated as gospel by many mets/wx enthusiasts alike, the ECMWF suite has a high SLPa bias in the tropical Atlantic at this lead... Hence, take it's current SLPa forecast for the tropical Atlantic during the heart of the upcoming hurricane season w/ a big grain of salt.

    [​IMG]

    ps2png-atls01-a82bacafb5c306db76464bc7e824bb75-Trmnab.png
     
  15. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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  16. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Consensus is starting to build that an area of disturbed weather in association with the Central America Monsoon Gyre will emerge over the eastern Pacific sometime next week as a strong MJO pulse propagates through the western hemisphere for the rest of this week and into the following week with both the GFS and Euro showing what would be Hurricane Adrian well south of the Mexican Riviera. Just a friendly reminder that hurricane season is quickly approaching...
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
  17. Rain Cold

    Rain Cold Target Snow Shields and Fire! Member

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    14 named (4 total landfalling named storms)
    6 canes (2 landfalling canes)
    2 majors (0 landfalling majors)
     
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  18. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    The Atlantic SSTA configuration since March looks considerably better this year vs 2013-16...
    0QkP8AOYp6.png
     
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  19. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    In case anyone cares, TWC says 14 storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major, while Colorado State says 11 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 major.
     
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  20. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    I said 11, 5 and 2 months ago (up top)!

    And I'll probably just as right about that as I was with my very cold February call ... :confused:
     
  21. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Really starting to get under the impression that the southwestern Atlantic near/north of the Greater Antilles and off the SE US coast is going to be a hot spot relative to the basin and long-term averages this year. Banking on an active east Pacific (which isn't much of a stretch) and of course given that we won't have a NINO anytime soon at least, probably wouldnt be a bad idea to go w/ a slightly below Caribbean and with a wet Sahel, above average Atlantic SSTs, and of course the sinking motion over the western portion of the basin, probably going to have an above normal Cape verde season with a primary track somewhere near and northeast of the Greater Antilles/PR.
     
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  22. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Yeah, we are more distant from an El-Nino than I initially thought, but we are headed towards one from what can be seen, though it may not be much. I'm not too sure about it though. I am beginning to think it will be an above average season too.
     
  23. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    NOAA is forecasting 11-17 storms, 5-9 hurricanes, and 2-4 major hurricanes, and an overall above average season.
     
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  24. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I'm going with a much quieter season than last season's insanity: 9/5/2
     
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  25. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    We're close on our numbers!
     
  26. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Great minds think alike. ;)

    Despite the Atlantic MDR SST warmth, I'm banking on a weak El Niño or just underneath that to make conditions more hostile than last season's weak La Niña. I based my prediction on how most weak to low end moderate El Niño seasons have gone since the satellite era started (1960's) and this includes some years with a warm MDR. Three of the last 4 weak El Niño seasons, all during the current +AMO, had 8/6/2 (2014), 9/5/2 (2006), and 12/4/2 (2002). Before that, 1994 had 7/3/0, 1986 had 6/4/0, 1979 had 9/5/2, 1977 had 6/5/1, 1976 had 10/6/2, 1968 had 8/4/0, and 1963 had 9/7/2. There were two notable very active exceptions, 2004 and 1969. So, 10 of the last 12 weak to low end moderate Niño seasons had fairly near or weaker than my prediction. So, that's the background research I used to predict 9/5/2. It is by no means wish-casting in case anyone might be wondering. Of course, it would be helpful to this prediction if we can actually get a weak to low end moderate El Niño.
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2017
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  27. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    I am flattered!
    Mine is not wish casting either, but in part comes from a wholly different angle. When my shoulder heals and I can type more than 3 sentences, I'll explain!
    Suffice it to say, this is fun!
    Phil
     
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  28. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    I post on another BB which has a contest every year. Out of 98 entries, only one is forecasting a quieter season than me!! That person is at 9/3/1 vs my 9/5/2. Only one other person has 4 or fewer H's. Nobody else has fewer than 10 NS or fewer than 2 majors.
     
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  29. pcbjr

    pcbjr Supporter Member

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    We'll see; I'm going over to American now to see if that is the BB - just don't tell the mods there or here ... LOL

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~


    Done - I escaped unscathed ...
     
  30. Jeremy Camp

    Jeremy Camp Landscaper Member

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    My prediction

    10 Named Storms
    4 Hurricanes
    2 Major Hurricanes
     
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