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Tropical Potential Tropical Cyclone Ten

Webberweather53

Webberweather53

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Another area of disturbed weather has formed in the monsoon trough over the eastern Atlantic, technically this disturbance was originally 91L but the NHC moved the initialization point yesterday to the front running system which was technically not originally 91L but another broad low in the monsoon trough nearly all the models (until last night) were developing... This system is anticipated to move in the general direction of the northern Antilles and PR next week and certainly bears watching... The National Hurricane Center only gives this a low chance of TCG the next several days however that may change given how much better organized it is in comparison to 91L
Post away!
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Webberweather53 said:
Another area of disturbed weather has formed in the monsoon trough over the eastern Atlantic, technically this disturbance was originally 91L but the NHC moved the initialization point yesterday to the front running system which was technically not originally 91L but another broad low in the monsoon trough nearly all the models (until last night) were developing... This system is anticipated to move in the general direction of the northern Antilles and PR next week and certainly bears watching... The National Hurricane Center only gives this a low chance of TCG the next several days however that may change given how much better organized it is in comparison to 91L
Post away!
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Thanks for starting the thread, definitely looks good and as you mention this one certainly bears watching.
 
GFS has the trifecta but not that impressed with 92L yet.... models gonna have a difficult time honing in on anything until we have actual developed systems imho
gfs_mslp_wind_atltropics_13.png
 
GFS had 92L miss opportunity to go OTS and back on west heading but only as a wave, wonder if it pulls a Gert waits till crosses 70W to develop? If so it would become very problematic.....just one of a million scenarios.
 
CMC with 92L and as Chuck5 posted in global model run thread next wave, not visible on this image, hot on it's heels.....

gem_mslp_wind_seus_36.png
 
Seeing feathered outflow indicating an upper level anticyclone forming over it. A good convective max tonight and we have Harvey in the morning.
 
Arcc said:
Seeing feathered outflow indicating an upper level anticyclone forming over it. A good convective max tonight and we have Harvey in the morning.
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I believe that since this thing is in between two other systems, it is capable of developing soonest, but I don't think we will see Harvey yet. I think TD9 or PTC9 is most likely by tomorrow afternoon only if the circulation is closed. Has a decent axis of rotation.
 
The 0Z GFS had it recurve as just a wave near 70W 8/21-2. The 6Z GFS had this as a very weak low skirt the east coast of FL 8/23-4 as it recurves. The 12Z GFS had this recurve just ~150 miles east of FL as a very weak low on 8/24.

The 18Z GFS has this move WNW to near Vero Beach, FL, as a recurving weak low late 8/23/early 8/24.

So, the last 3 runs of the GFS have this recurving near the FL east coast 8/23-4 fwiw.

The 0Z CMC has this recurve as a H near 70W 8/23-4. The 12Z CMC has this hit SE FL as a strong TS or H as it recurves late 8/23-early 8/24.

The 0Z/12Z Euro runs has this as a wave that crosses S FL 8/22.

Conclusion: It is still very early as this is still not yet officially a TC. Regardless, the model consensus today is suggesting that this may very well end up as the biggest threat to the CONUS of 91L, 92L, and the wave now over W Africa even though it is shown to only be weak as of now on the GFS/Euro. The threat timing seems to be 8/22-4 (especially 8/23-4).
This would be only within a couple of days after the solar eclipse.
 
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CMC into the Gulf as a hurricane by day 9 and moving NW at the end of the run... passes near Key West at close to hurricane strength probably around day 8

I would agree that of the three areas this is the most threatening to the US

91L looks Mexico bound like Franklin and future 93L maybe another Gert
 
Euro and GFS still not too impressed with 92L but GFS was never really impressed with Gert either so this definitely needs to be watched b/c as many have noted it appears the 1 of the 3 that has the best shot of making it to the US. CMC hasn't been bad this year development wise so.....

Definitely has rotation at least in the mid levels
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=12
 
The main issue 92L will have to deal with in about 36-48 hours is a strong TUTT digging into the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Gert's intensification has strengthened this feature on nwp as it's deposited an appreciable amount of heat and momentum into the subtropical jet. 92L still bears watching as it enters the southwestern Atlantic & Bahamas. The UKMET atm still develops 91L, 92L, & 93L within the next week and the environment is liable to be at least marginal for gradual intensification once 92L gets in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
 
Webberweather53 said:
The main issue 92L will have to deal with in about 36-48 hours is a strong TUTT digging into the eastern subtropical Atlantic. Gert's intensification has strengthened this feature on nwp as it's deposited an appreciable amount of heat and momentum into the subtropical jet. 92L still bears watching as it enters the southwestern Atlantic & Bahamas. The UKMET atm still develops 91L, 92L, & 93L within the next week and the environment is liable to be at least marginal for gradual intensification once 92L gets in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola
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I'm guessing you meant this.... definitely a hostile environment for development at that point.
gfs_uv200_atltropics_8.png


gfs_shear_atltropics_11.png
 
metwannabe said:
I'm guessing you meant this.... definitely a hostile environment for development at that point.
gfs_uv200_atltropics_8.png


gfs_shear_atltropics_11.png
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Yea that's it. In spite of the anomalous upper level easterly shear that's present in the wake of the recent cckw passage, the fact we have an intensifying hurricane in the subtropical Atlantic in a background state that's already marginally conducive at best to TCG in the eastern Atlantic, it's not making life easy for 92L... Hurricanes that lift northward out of the tropical Atlantic typically send big PV streamers like this that often quell tend to activity in the mdr
 
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