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Tropical 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season & Model Discussion

Latest frames of subsurface still shredding the niño. It could sustain for months more though...

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But we have lost so much sub surface heat over the last month.
 
El Niño continues to fade..

I think it’s almost time to begin rethinking those below normal atlantic forecasts due to El Niño. It’s presense will very likely not be felt much if at all.

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40% now in next 5 days

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
125 PM EDT Sat May 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A large and elongated area of cloudiness and disorganized
thunderstorms has developed well to the east of the Bahamas.
An area of low pressure is expected to form within this area of
disturbed weather several hundred miles south or southwest of
Bermuda by early next week. Gradual development of this system
into a tropical or subtropical cyclone is possible during the
early and middle part of next week while it moves northward or
northeastward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued by 2 AM EDT Sunday, or sooner if conditions warrant.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
GFS has been consistently showing tropical development in the Western Caribbean.
 
The new GFS run now has the possible tropical system move into Central America, emerge into the Bay of Campeche and hit southern Mexico.
 
The new GFS run now has the possible tropical system move into Central America, emerge into the Bay of Campeche and hit southern Mexico.
Now it has a hurricane that just misses NC to the east. Fv3 being the Fv3. Lol.507E148A-ACD4-48A3-9DF3-B1E394DFD01A.png
 
Actually FWIW 6z run of the normal GFS has a disorganized tropical system entering the gulf at the same time as the Fv3 bringing a lot of rain to Florida. May be something to watch.
Yes I've been noticing the same thing. Coupe runs in a row gfs have something in the gulf.
 
12z GFS has trouble in the gulf towards the end of next week. Still ends up disorganized though.219C6FFB-7CBB-4869-9907-6A9C73708EFE.png
 
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