Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, Dec 20, 2017.
What do you think about the 2018 season? TSR: 15/7/3
Ryan Maue earlier this year believes we are in for another year like this, and I don't think he's wrong.
If anyone would know, Ryan would. It's early for a call really, but last year, I think I was underdone, while many thought I was off my rocker calling for so much activity. I can say, I am not so sure we will have the long lived Cat 5 record setters like last year, but of course that can change.
Yeah we have no idea where this season is headed, it's anyone's guess atm
I have a bad feeling about this season.
The Gulf of Mexico is really warm. +1.3
Hopefully we get El Nino. If so, this season should be way less active than last season. If not, I'd still have hopes for a much less active season simply because last season was horrible..
Here’s the latest prediction from CSU: 14/7/3
If they predicted 11, 4, and 2 last year, this is way up from then. Since it's still early, I'll do two cases of predictions. Something tells me though that we're going to see high amounts of storms this year since last year seemed to be a nasty year. Hope I'm wrong though and it's a weak year.
If weak to moderate El-Nino develops, 13 storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major
If we go neutral, 18 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major.
I’d rather have the weak El Niño then Neutral.
JB/WxBell April hurricane season update:
"As far as impact, unlike last year when we plainly had the U.S. in the cross-hairs, this year it looks like the U.S. will be on the western edge of the highest ACE area (50% or more). This will extend between 30°N and 40°N from the U.S. coast to the eastern Atlantic In close development is going to be an interesting challenge this year. Shorter tracked storms pose a big challenge as the huge mature ones are easier to gauge in most cases."
For JB/WxBell, this is a rather tame forecast for the US. It isn't exactly inactive, but it is still nice to see a not as threatening forecast for two reasons: I don't want a high impact season (I never do but last season's disastrous season just reemphasizes this) and it is refreshing to see WxBell not be so threatening regarding US impact potential for a change.
I'm hoping for El Niño.
It may be coincidental, but they nailed the ACE area for last year's May update. However, their numbers were way off with the ACE being a record breaker. If they get it again, it may not be so bad if we get an El-Nino.