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Tropical 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, Dec 20, 2017.

  1. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    What do you think about the 2018 season? TSR: 15/7/3
     
  2. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    Ryan Maue earlier this year believes we are in for another year like this, and I don't think he's wrong.
     
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  3. Shawn

    Shawn Staff Member Administrator Moderator Site Developer

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    If anyone would know, Ryan would. It's early for a call really, but last year, I think I was underdone, while many thought I was off my rocker calling for so much activity. I can say, I am not so sure we will have the long lived Cat 5 record setters like last year, but of course that can change.
     
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  4. Webberweather53

    Webberweather53 Meteorology Student

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    Yeah we have no idea where this season is headed, it's anyone's guess atm
     
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  5. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    I have a bad feeling about this season.
     
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  6. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    The Gulf of Mexico is really warm. +1.3
     
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  7. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    Hopefully we get El Nino. If so, this season should be way less active than last season. If not, I'd still have hopes for a much less active season simply because last season was horrible..
     
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  8. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  9. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  10. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    If they predicted 11, 4, and 2 last year, this is way up from then. Since it's still early, I'll do two cases of predictions. Something tells me though that we're going to see high amounts of storms this year since last year seemed to be a nasty year. Hope I'm wrong though and it's a weak year.

    If weak to moderate El-Nino develops, 13 storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major

    If we go neutral, 18 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major.
     
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  11. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    I’d rather have the weak El Niño then Neutral.
     
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  12. GaWx

    GaWx Supporter Member

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    JB/WxBell April hurricane season update:

    https://www.weatherbell.com/2018-hurricane-season-april-update

    "As far as impact, unlike last year when we plainly had the U.S. in the cross-hairs, this year it looks like the U.S. will be on the western edge of the highest ACE area (50% or more). This will extend between 30°N and 40°N from the U.S. coast to the eastern Atlantic In close development is going to be an interesting challenge this year. Shorter tracked storms pose a big challenge as the huge mature ones are easier to gauge in most cases."

    For JB/WxBell, this is a rather tame forecast for the US. It isn't exactly inactive, but it is still nice to see a not as threatening forecast for two reasons: I don't want a high impact season (I never do but last season's disastrous season just reemphasizes this) and it is refreshing to see WxBell not be so threatening regarding US impact potential for a change.

    I'm hoping for El Niño.
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2018
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  13. ForsythSnow

    ForsythSnow Staff Member Moderator

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    It may be coincidental, but they nailed the ACE area for last year's May update. However, their numbers were way off with the ACE being a record breaker. If they get it again, it may not be so bad if we get an El-Nino.
    [​IMG]
     
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