Discussion in 'Tropical Weather' started by Snowfan, Dec 20, 2017.
What do you think about the 2018 season? TSR: 15/7/3
Ryan Maue earlier this year believes we are in for another year like this, and I don't think he's wrong.
If anyone would know, Ryan would. It's early for a call really, but last year, I think I was underdone, while many thought I was off my rocker calling for so much activity. I can say, I am not so sure we will have the long lived Cat 5 record setters like last year, but of course that can change.
Yeah we have no idea where this season is headed, it's anyone's guess atm
I have a bad feeling about this season.
The Gulf of Mexico is really warm. +1.3
Hopefully we get El Nino. If so, this season should be way less active than last season. If not, I'd still have hopes for a much less active season simply because last season was horrible..
Here’s the latest prediction from CSU: 14/7/3
If they predicted 11, 4, and 2 last year, this is way up from then. Since it's still early, I'll do two cases of predictions. Something tells me though that we're going to see high amounts of storms this year since last year seemed to be a nasty year. Hope I'm wrong though and it's a weak year.
If weak to moderate El-Nino develops, 13 storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major
If we go neutral, 18 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major.
I’d rather have the weak El Niño then Neutral.
JB/WxBell April hurricane season update:
"As far as impact, unlike last year when we plainly had the U.S. in the cross-hairs, this year it looks like the U.S. will be on the western edge of the highest ACE area (50% or more). This will extend between 30°N and 40°N from the U.S. coast to the eastern Atlantic In close development is going to be an interesting challenge this year. Shorter tracked storms pose a big challenge as the huge mature ones are easier to gauge in most cases."
For JB/WxBell, this is a rather tame forecast for the US. It isn't exactly inactive, but it is still nice to see a not as threatening forecast for two reasons: I don't want a high impact season (I never do but last season's disastrous season just reemphasizes this) and it is refreshing to see WxBell not be so threatening regarding US impact potential for a change.
I'm hoping for El Niño.
It may be coincidental, but they nailed the ACE area for last year's May update. However, their numbers were way off with the ACE being a record breaker. If they get it again, it may not be so bad if we get an El-Nino.
Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), which has a pretty good record, has just issued a new forecast for 2018. It is one of the quietest late May/early June forecasts they've had since they started doing these for 1999. It is comparable to the pretty quiet forecasts made for 2000, 2002, and 2015. It is quieter than 2009. This latest forecast can be seen by clicking on the top link here:
Only 1 tropical storm near the Lesser Antilles? That's sounds weird and their numbers being 9 storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major seem too low. They are the only organization that's calling for a well below normal season. Not sure how they have done the past 20 years or so compared to the others.
NOAA upped their forcast hurricanes to 10-16 total storms, right about the time Alberto was starting to form. Can’t remember the hurricanes 5-9, 3 majors?
The latest numbers for all of them can be found in the 2018 hurricane season wiki page.
They've done well overall with their preseason forecasts. You can see their past forecasts by clicking on the red Atlantic Basin part of the global map.
Based on the preseason indicators, looking at the May Eurosip SLP forecast, and even after considering Alberto, I don't think 9/4/1 is unreasonable though it would help if there actually is El Niño coming later this year.
Where are you seeing anything about only one TS near the Lesser Antilles?
I hope the TSR forecast will be added to the wiki because they certainly deserve it based on their good overall record of their near 20 years of forecasts. I guess any member can add to the wiki?
Also, is the NOAA forecast really a forecast?
NOAA (10-16 storms, 5-9 hurricanes, 1-4 major)
Their ranges are very wide! MH 1-4? That goes from quiet to active! At least TSR, CSU, and TWC put out a specific forecast.
It's in the document forecast. I clicked on the link you posted, then clicked the 2018 atlantic seasonal forecast above the pacific one. I looked through the document and noticed that on the bottom of page 2.
I was thinking the same thing when I put it in. I think they couldn't make up their mind between an active season and an inactive one.
Speaking of which, I just looked at the last 2 seasons as an example on the site you posed and it seems they did well in terms of storms, but I think that could be a stretch since their +- amounts on the ACE and storm numbers seem quite large like NOAA's. I notice there isn't a +- for 2018, but for the other years there is for the May outlook.
Thanks. Weird. On my phone, I see only page 1 for some reason. When I get back to my laptop, I'll see if I can get to page 2.
Sounds like a JB forecast!
Nah, a JB forecast would be 1 - 25 storms, 1 - 15 hurricanes, and 1-9 major, with all the major ones making landfall at different locations. To know the locations, subscribe to him on his site!
OK, once I got to my laptop, I was able to see the rest of the TSR pages including the Lesser Antilles landfall forecast of only 1 TS and no Hs. So, 1/0/0. Do I think 1/0/0 is realistic? Yes. Here's why:
- Since 1995, the average # of L. Ant. landfalls has only been 1.6/0.7/0.3. So, 1/0/0 isn't that far off from the longterm average.
- Since 1995, 8 of the 23 years had 1/0/0 or less: 2016, 2013, 2009, 2006, 2003, 2002, 2001, and 1997 with 2006, 2003, and 1997 at 0/0/0. So, 1/0/0 or less isn't rare at all since it has occurred about 1 every 3 seasons even during the active era that started in 1995.
- Of those 8, only 4 were oncoming El Nino's. Even one of the 3 0/0/0 years, 2003, wasn't an oncoming El Nino. So, although an oncoming El Nino certainly raises the chance for a very quiet L. Ant. year (4 of the 7 El Nino's were 1/0/0 or quieter there vs only 4 of the other 16), it isn't required. Regardless, there's a higher than average chance there will be El Nino by winter.
- Keeping in mind that May Eurosip forecasts have done pretty well overall since records start in 2008, look at this May 2018 Eurosip forecast for ASO, which has the highest SLPs vs norms in the Caribbean:
Seems more common than I thought. Thanks for the info! Probably going to be a close to home season, but even with lower numbers, Carribean storms can be bad. If we have no storms near PR this year and the Virgin islands, that would be great as they are still recovering from last year.