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10/31-11-2 Severe Threat

Discussion in 'General Weather' started by Snowflowxxl, Oct 29, 2018.

  1. Snowflowxxl

    Snowflowxxl Member

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    Models showing agreement on significant storms across the southeast during this time period.

    Will be something to monitor!
     
  2. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    Looks like it is going to be a stormy start to November.
     
    Rosie likes this.
  3. stormcentral

    stormcentral Storm Central Wx Member

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    FB_IMG_1540818367515.jpg FB_IMG_1540830802894.jpg

    Well someone beat me to a thread.
     
  4. RealtorWeatherGirlGA

    RealtorWeatherGirlGA Member

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    Been watching this shape up....I will be curious to see if it can hold together through Atlanta overnight.
     
  5. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  6. Brick Tamland

    Brick Tamland Member

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    Looks like we could see more of a threat here Friday. Of course, we have seen severe weather and tornado outbreaks here in November before. Seems the middle of November and the week of Thanksgiving have been ripe in the past for severe weather.
     
  7. Christopher

    Christopher Member

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    I was reading today’s discussion from BMX about tomorrow’s severe weather, and saw this about 11/6. Never good when they say “rather ominous” in a forecast discussion. Still 6 days out, but definitely something to keep an eye on. [​IMG]


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    stormcentral and Snowflowxxl like this.
  8. Storm5

    Storm5 Staff Member Administrator Supporter

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    Yeah that system looks better for severe vs tomorrow’s


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    Christopher and stormcentral like this.
  9. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    There are tornado watches out for parts of TX, AR, and LA.
     
  10. Will Rossman

    Will Rossman Member

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    Details from this afternoon's weather disco from my local LIX office:

    This s/w is still expected to take on a neutral to negative tilt
    overnight and the strong forcing will deepen the sfc low. The winds
    in the mid and lower levels will respond significantly with h5 winds
    out of the southwest around 50-60kts, h85 winds will be out of the
    south around 40-50kts, and sfc winds may begin to back out of the
    SSE due to the deepening sfc low. This will lead to a very favorable
    shear environment with 0-1km SRH possibly around 250-350 m2/s2 and
    0-3km SRH around 400 m2/s2 maybe even approaching 500. Deep layer
    shear is impressive too with 0-6km bulk shear around 40-55kts.
    Obviously fcst soundings show a very favorable hodograph for
    tornadic development. Instability again is not overwhelming but is
    sufficient with MLCAPE likely peaking over 1000 j/kg and 0-3km
    CAPE of 60-140 j/kg, definitely good enough in the LL. Showalters
    are still forecast to be around -2 to -4. With these features any
    storms that develop ahead of the main line will be able to
    maximize the shear and could provide the greatest tornado threat.
    These could also produce a strong tornado or two. The tornado
    threat won`t end with the approach of the squall-line which will
    likely be more of a QLCS. The shear will still be very strong and
    embedded tornadoes will be possible if not likely in the line.

    As for timing, this is the one thing we aren`t extremely
    confident about. If storms fire ahead of the line then locations
    like BTR could see activity right around midnight while locations
    along the north and south shores and coastal MS could see activity
    at and well before sunrise. If we are waiting on the line then it
    could be more of a 2/3am around the BTR area to 13-16z coastal
    MS. One concern though with timing is if the squall-line really
    consolidates and is intense then there is a good chance it could
    rapidly accelerate east. If that occurs then the timing would move
    up and the straight-line wind threat will really increase and
    could be widespread. A possible good example is the squall-line we
    saw on April 27th 2015.

    As for the rain potential this is still impressive. This will still
    be a fairly transitory system but these storms will be very
    efficient rain producers. Still forecasting K index values of around
    38 and PWs near 2" which is at the top of climo. This will combine
    with a very diffluent pattern aloft and some of these storms will
    drop a considerable amount of rain in a very short time which could
    lead to localized flash flooding. There is a Slight Risk of
    excessive rainfall and widespread 2-3 inches with locally higher
    amounts looks are possible.
     
  11. Bama Ravens

    Bama Ravens Member

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    Looks like the threat for around next Tuesday (Election Day) could be pretty significant. BMX is already mentioning it in their AFD.
     
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  12. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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    There is a Tornado Warning for northeast Alabama.
     
  13. Snowfan

    Snowfan Member

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  14. tennessee storm

    tennessee storm Member

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    That’s a very serious threat shaping up for early next week. For a rather large area
     
  15. metwannabe

    metwannabe Staff Member Moderator Supporter

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    NC folks keep an eye on this tomorrow, unfortunately November severe around here has a bad history



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  16. Kylo

    Kylo Member

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    3km NAM with strong banding right over Wake.

    NAM-WRF 3-km undefined undefined 27.png
     
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