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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2017

I know that this has nothing to do with the Atlantic or US, but how could you not mention this insane and quite rare, fantasy fujiwhara on the ECMWF in the subtropical Northwest Pacific, wherein both TCs develop off of ULLs (which is very rare in of itself)...
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GFS and it's ensembles love an African wave next week that in fantasy land becomes a US threat and some of the ensembles are a significant hurricane we'll see if this is another false storm or not. The euro has also shown some development in prior runs but not today

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Brent said:
GFS and it's ensembles love an African wave next week that in fantasy land becomes a US threat and some of the ensembles are a significant hurricane we'll see if this is another false storm or not. The euro has also shown some development in prior runs but not today

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Things go crank up moving forward . August will be busy

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Storm5 said:
Things go crank up moving forward . August will be busy

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I give it 3 weeks max before the lid comes off... very favorable things are coming, we could even see something next week.

GFS again bullish in the long range with a US threat, there are several very significant hurricanes in the Gulf

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Mentioned in the TWO

A tropical wave, located a few hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some
slow development of this system is possible this weekend as it moves
westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
 
0z Euro is now developing the Eastern Atlantic and at 240 hours has a storm approaching Puerto Rico with a good looking pattern to continue west...
 
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Yeah I could actually seeing this panning out w/ a monster CCKW moving into the basin... And of course right at the end of the run, another wave further to the SE tries to get going... Here we go.
 
The CMC is all in for this next wave it seems. Is not backing down.
EDIT: The 12z run also slows it down quite a bit compared to the 00z
 
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Brent said:
12z Euro says nevermind lol
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Large run-run variability will occur when you're dealing w/ TC activity over a week from now, specific NWP solutions don't really matter at this point, but the large-scale environment does... Let's also be reminiscent of the fact that the European has completely whiffed on every eastern MDR TC this season thus far (Don, Two, and Bret) wrt TCG beyond the medium range (3-4 days)... The fact that it showed anything at all, much less attempted to develop 3 TCs, even on one particular run is pretty remarkable
 
Webberweather53 said:
Large run-run variability will occur when you're dealing w/ TC activity over a week from now, specific NWP solutions don't really matter at this point, but the large-scale environment does... Let's also be reminiscent of the fact that the European has completely whiffed on every eastern MDR TC this season thus far (Don, Two, and Bret) wrt TCG beyond the medium range (3-4 days)...
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So well and succinctly said, Webb. ;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Large run-run variability will occur when you're dealing w/ TC activity over a week from now, specific NWP solutions don't really matter at this point, but the large-scale environment does... Let's also be reminiscent of the fact that the European has completely whiffed on every eastern MDR TC this season thus far (Don, Two, and Bret) wrt TCG beyond the medium range (3-4 days)... The fact that it showed anything at all, much less attempted to develop 3 TCs, even on one particular run is pretty remarkable
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Yeah, this year it's been pretty bad in consistency. I would say if it shows a storm once, and others show it for longer, it is a possibility.
 
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