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Tropical Global Model Runs Discussion 2018

tee hee, the GFS has 107 in Providence, RI at 186:
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Not even funny
 
tee hee, the GFS has 107 in Providence, RI at 186:
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I know it is expected to get very hot there but 107 in Providence?!?! Their alltime record is “only” 104, which was on 8/2/1975. This has to be a result of the gfs doing its tricks with its extra hot pockets in cities.
 
The 12Z Euro (and the CMC/GFS to some extent) has a westward moving disturbed area underneath a 594+ mb NE-Midwest US 500 mb high in the form of a very weak sfc low/upper low. Before that, the run has a piece of energy/moisture break off from the front off the NE US near 65W that first moves south over the weekend to near 30N. Then it turns westward on Monday as the upper high strengthens to the N and NW and goes all the way up to 200 mb thus keeping shear only light to moderate/changes steering to westward. The weak disturbance then moves into the SE US on Wednesday. Though unlikely as of now, this will be interesting to watch to see if it tries to transition into a TC before reaching the coast (if it does) on Wednesday.

This energy appears to currently be near where the early week Euros erroneously had that TC form off NC and mainly move NE to the current position. So, maybe it is related.
 
Yellow X is gone from the Gulf and the Atlantic X is 10%; IMHO, nothing until later this month ... then a couple of premature names ... dynamics are not aligned (yet) ... :)

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... and fingers crossed they do not get aligned this year ... :cool: ... though it goes without saying, we've got a good 3 1/2 months to go ... :rolleyes:
 
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Yellow X is gone from the Gulf and the Atlantic X is 10%; IMHO, nothing until later this month ... then a couple of premature names ... dynamics are not aligned (yet) ... :)

View attachment 5412

... and fingers crossed they do not get aligned this year ... :cool: ... though it goes without saying, we've got a good 3 1/2 months to go ... :rolleyes:
I think it’s up to 30% the next 3 days now!?
 
That wave off Africa sure looks good(is 95L now not sure what happened to 92, 93, and 94L?)

Hostile road ahead though
 
I'm giving it about 3 weeks, still think we'll have something towards late August and Labor Day(although I'm not expecting anything on the scale of last year)

Main story this coming week looks to be the possibility of Hector in the EPAC getting close to Hawaii next week.
 
It could all be fantasyland, but the GFS has some activity out near Africa at the end of the run, and I doubt our luck at having only 4 storms, 2 hurricanes and 2 subtropical ones, will stand. Probably going to get more active later this month.
 
Praying that activity continues to fall apart coming off of Africa ...

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We might see a little but of an uptick in around day 10-15 as a cckw passes over the Atlantic. Not entirely enthusiastic about a lot right now other than maybe another subtropical system

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We might see a little but of an uptick in around day 10-15 as a cckw passes over the Atlantic. Not entirely enthusiastic about a lot right now other than maybe another subtropical system

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Nothing to suggest anything worrisome, yet, in any event ...

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GFS starting to look interesting in the LR out towards Africa

It's pretty much if its gonna start it'll be in the next couple weeks

we are getting close to when Harvey formed a year ago
 
Maybe it isn't the Atlantic, but the Pacific has been really active and Hawaii could be looking at a hit by Lane unless it goes further south like Hector did a week ago.
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